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How can you prioritize risks with different time horizons?

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Risks are uncertain events or conditions that can have positive or negative effects on your objectives. However, not all risks are equally important or urgent. Some risks may have immediate consequences, while others may only affect your long-term goals. How can you prioritize risks with different time horizons? Here are some tips to help you.

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1 Define your objectives

Before you can prioritize risks, you need to have a clear vision of what you want to achieve and by when. Your objectives should be SMART: specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound. For example, you may want to increase your sales by 10% in the next quarter, or launch a new product in the next year. Your objectives will help you identify the relevant risks and their potential impact.

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Anirban Karmakar

Project Management Professional
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Before you dive into sorting out risks, let's get crystal clear on what you're aiming for and when you want to hit those goals. Think SMART – make your objectives Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Like, say you're gunning for a 10% boost in sales next quarter or planning to drop a fresh product next year. These goals aren't just for show; they'll be your guide to spotting the right risks and understanding how they could shake things up

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2 Assess the likelihood and impact of risks

Once you have your objectives, you can start identifying the risks that may affect them. You can use various sources of information, such as historical data, expert opinions, surveys, or brainstorming sessions. For each risk, you need to estimate how likely it is to occur and how severe its impact would be on your objectives. You can use a qualitative or quantitative scale, such as low, medium, high, or a numerical value.

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Anirban Karmakar

Project Management Professional
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Once you've got your goals, it's time to find out the potential game-changers. Dive into historical data, tap into expert know-how, run surveys, or just let those brainstorming sessions flow. For every risk, play the psychic – predict how likely it is to crash the party and how hard it'll hit your goals. Quantify it with a 1 to 10 scale or keep it chill with the classic low, medium, high vibes. Likelihood of any risk add weightage on risk score which will help in prioritizing top risks which need immediate focus.

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3 Use a risk matrix

A risk matrix is a simple tool that can help you prioritize risks based on their likelihood and impact. It is a grid that divides risks into four categories: high, medium, low, and negligible. The higher the likelihood and impact of a risk, the higher its priority. For example, a risk that has a high likelihood and a high impact would be in the top-right corner of the matrix, and it would be a high priority. A risk that has a low likelihood and a low impact would be in the bottom-left corner of the matrix, and it would be a negligible priority.

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4 Consider the time horizon of risks

A risk matrix can help you compare risks with similar time horizons, but what if you have risks with different time horizons? For example, you may have a risk that has a low likelihood and a high impact in the short term, and a risk that has a high likelihood and a low impact in the long term. How do you prioritize them? One way to do that is to use a time-adjusted risk matrix. This is a matrix that takes into account the time horizon of each risk and adjusts its likelihood and impact accordingly. For example, you can use a discount factor to reduce the likelihood and impact of risks that are farther in the future, or an inflation factor to increase the likelihood and impact of risks that are closer in the present. This way, you can compare risks with different time horizons on the same scale.

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Gemma Clatworthy
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Other risk management tools for measuring material risks that are longer term in nature (i.e not likely to occur in the next 12 months) include: scenario analysis, emerging risk identification, horizon scanning and stress testing

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5 Apply other criteria

A risk matrix can help you prioritize risks based on their likelihood and impact, but it may not capture all the factors that are relevant for your decision making. For example, you may also want to consider the urgency, complexity, interdependence, or opportunity of each risk. These are some additional criteria that can help you refine your risk prioritization. For example, you may want to prioritize a risk that is urgent, meaning that it requires immediate action, over a risk that is not urgent, even if they have the same likelihood and impact. Or, you may want to prioritize a risk that offers an opportunity, meaning that it can have a positive effect on your objectives, over a risk that does not, even if they have the same likelihood and impact.

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6 Review and update your priorities

Risk prioritization is not a one-time activity. It is a dynamic process that requires regular review and update. As your objectives, environment, and information change, so will your risks and their priorities. You need to monitor the changes in the likelihood and impact of your risks, as well as the other criteria that you use to prioritize them. You also need to evaluate the effectiveness of your risk responses and adjust them as needed. By doing so, you can ensure that you are focusing on the most important and relevant risks for your success.

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Gemma Clatworthy
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Regular review is a crucial part of risk management - it shouldn't be a tick box exercise that you do once and then forget about. Risks should be regularly reviewed by management and their relative materiality can be discussed and updated in a risk register to make sure discussions about the most relevant and material risks are happening

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you prioritize risks with different time horizons?

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3

4

5

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1 Define your objectives

2 Assess the likelihood and impact of risks

3 Use a risk matrix

4 Consider the time horizon of risks

5 Apply other criteria

6 Review and update your priorities

7 Here’s what else to consider

Risk Management

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How can you prioritize risks with different time horizons?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Define your objectives

2 Assess the likelihood and impact of risks

3 Use a risk matrix

4 Consider the time horizon of risks

5 Apply other criteria

6 Review and update your priorities

7 Here’s what else to consider

Risk Management

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