How can you improve your ability to predict market trends as a Technical Analyst?

As the saying goes, the trend is your friend. A long time frame chart is essential for traders to know the overall direction. Then zoom in to shorter time frame to look for signals that point to that general trend. Of course, one can always trade counter trend and still make money. But why would one want to push a big rock up the mountain when one could just sit on the rock as it rolled down the mountain? Just my 2c worth

Using multiple time frames can provide a more comprehensive and accurate analysis. -Weekly or daily charts are used to understand the overall direction of the market or asset. -Major time frames helps Identifying significant support and resistance levels that have been established over a longer time horizon. Entry and exit points: Use shorter time frames: 2 hours/4 hours for precise entry and exit points. -Use candestick pattern as well as moving average to confirm the entry signal on smaller time frame.

Examining larger time frames, like monthly and weekly charts, is vital to gain a comprehensive market perspective and assess its strength. These larger time frames offer a broader view of trends, enabling to identify key support/resistance levels and major trends. Observing the absence of higher highs or weak higher highs on these charts can signal market weakness. This indicates potential exhaustion of bullish momentum and suggests a reversal or short-term selling opportunity. Recognizing this divergence between smaller and larger time frames enhances trading decisions and risk management. Here is a good way to harness the power of longer time frames to capture valuable trading opportunities.

Technical analyst the price chart is not wholly and it is seen from a understood perspective by individual TA. To have a better clarity in identifying market trend, a technical analyst need to be able to run a top-down analysis where different time frames would be checked starting from higher to lower time frame. Looking for confirmation and high probability trade entry. And also to determine entry with lowest risk tolerance possible.

start looking at the chart of that particular stock or forex or crypto from monthly tf to see if its bearish or bullish using ema s or using market structure concepts

Most of the time, markets are sideways/equilibrium/accumulation/distribution phases. Its actually hard to find out trend and stick to it for the derivations segment. Still, if someone has a strong hold on it, he can be God. Trend is easier to follow in higher time frames and cash buying.

The simplest principle of trend is to know the HHs, HLs (higher highs and higher lows) for an uptrend and LHs and LLs (lower highs and lower lows) for a downtrend. After an impulsive swing, it is important to wait for retracement that is sustainable to come back to discount or premium price range before having another impulsive swing to break previous high or previous low which known as break of structure. Buy on a discount of an uptrend and sell at premium of a downtrend. Trend is your friend, align with it.

Go to a high timeframe (like the 4H, Daily or Weekly timeframes). Then, look for the overall trend of the market using Indicators or Smart Money Concepts or the Wyckoff theory or the Elliot Wave Theory. After you know the direction of the trend, you can go down to a lower timeframe and look for entry triggers that align with the larger trend (like pullbacks).

The trend of most market can be reasonably easy to detect on a longer time or market frame and use to a traders advantage in shorter time or market frames. For instance if one finds that a market is in an uptrend in say 1 day market frame then a trader may only want to take buy signals from their various trading systems on say a 30 minute time frame. While this is not a fool proof trading rule it should result in more winning trades and potentially profits. Even with the trend following approach a trader has to have well established trading rules of engagement and have the discipline to follow these to be successful

I've never used indicators in my life. 1. Start with DOW THEORY to know how market works. 2. Then back test different stocks or indices to know that markets evolve everyday. The DOW Theory that worked before 10 years is not the same way it works now. There are traps, mitigations, liquidity hunts increasing day by day. 3. Now once we know the basics, use indicators if needed for more confirmations. 4. Remember, indicators must be secondary, not primary.

Before even thinking about indicators, first understand the fundamentals of how the market moves. Use the Elliott Wave Principle or Smart Money Concepts or the Wyckoff theory or anything else to understand the market. Once you've done that, then you can use indicators. The indicators you use should be based off of the understanding that you built before (i.e. the theories). They should reflect the understanding you have. Also, don't just pair indicators together. The indicators you use should work well with each other.

The thing with indicators is they don't drive the market, liquidity plus pd arrays do, central banks often manipulate the indicator readings to their advantage.

Back Testing: The only most important thing in trading that no trader does! No one wants to test and journal. Every one wants easy money. Back testing can provide accuracy of a setup, builds confidence, builds discipline, builds patience.

Any one can make strategies but whether it is effective or not can only be proved via back testing on real time data betting on real money.

First is to know our mistakes, then accepting them, then journaling it down, then figuring out ways to rectify them, then create disciple to not repeat them. But harsh truth, we are in a world where accepting mistakes is rare.

A sage mentor of mine in the 1970s offered unique insight into why technical analysis works - market prices represent the sum of all available information and knowledge at any moment. Individual traders may possess bits and pieces driving decisions, but no single participant holds the total picture. Still, the collection of these fragmented perspectives shapes market prices. Whenever anyone gains meaningful insight, they act upon it. If unable to trade themselves, they pass data to those equipped to react in the market. Either way the price action reflects this So rather than seeking to unearth obscure data, technical traders see what the price action is and with a disciplined trading approach participate in the action.

Predict is a dangerous word. How do you know if there's a trend forming? Anyone can predict or forecast a trend, but are they right in the end? Truth is, there is no way to know if a trend is forming or is done. EW probably is the closest if you want to "predict" a trend or correction. But it is still subjective. In conclusion, there is no way to predict a trend, management is of the utmost importance.