How can you avoid the planning fallacy when planning project timelines?

Firstly you build a team that actually know how long tasks will take Then create a Master Schedule Invest the time to go through the schedule line by line with the 'expert' team. Do not be afraid to challenge any responses and be prepared to review Assumption is the mother of all 'cockups' so estimate everything! Be prepared to tell the client that their given timelines are unrealistic and furnish your Master Schedule for discussion with the client. Fail to plan accurately, plan to fail spectacularly

To avoid planning fallacy it's important to consider historical data, lessons learned, and expert judgment. Involve the Dev / Architects, ensure the work breakdown is accurate, and get the estimates from them. Thereafter roll it up. Consider adding contingency for unforeseen roadblocks.

To mitigate the planning fallacy when planning project timelines, it's crucial to incorporate historical data and consider unforeseen delays or obstacles. Utilizing techniques such as reference class forecasting, where past similar projects' timelines are analyzed for more realistic estimates, can provide a more accurate basis for planning. Additionally, breaking down the project into smaller, manageable tasks with individual time estimates can help identify potential bottlenecks and uncertainties. Regularly revisiting and updating the timeline based on actual progress and adjusting for any deviations from the initial plan can also help in managing expectations and ensuring better adherence to deadlines.

Caer en la falacia de la planificación es algo bastante habitual, si quieres evitar caer en ella te recomiendo: - Dedica tiempo al análisis - Sé pesimista al planificar tiempos, agrega siempre un % extra de margen - Compara con tu histórico anterior de planificaciones - Sé transparente con los stakeholders y el impacto de sus peticiones - Ni tú ni tu equipo sois los Vengadores de Marvel, valora los límites y la experiencia de tu equipo

Instead of relying solely on internal estimates or projections, look for similar past projects or external benchmarks to guide your planning. Break down the project into smaller, more manageable tasks or sub-projects. Incorporate contingency or buffer time into your project timeline to account for unexpected delays or challenges. Instead of providing single-point estimates, use a range of estimates for each task or phase of the project. Seek input from team members or subject matter experts who have experience in similar projects.

I use productivity apps like TickTick or ToDoist to plan my tasks (other apps available ??) The key to accomplishing the task on time is breaking it down: - Break it down, and then break those down again - Aim for 30-60 minutes smaller tasks maximum - Give yourself a 5 minute buffer to start and end tasks - Remember you need breaks to energise again - Exercise - regular exercise increases focus.

Breaking down a project into smaller manageable tasks is very crucial. By breaking it down, you can better estimate the time needed for each component, reducing the likelihood of underestimating the overall timeline. It helps with realistic planning and could even give a better allocation of resources.

Break down the project in smallest actionable items. Clearly outline dependencies on other teams. Communicate to the involved stakeholders of expected changes and timeline. Always keep a buffer and prioritise. Group similar tasks together if possible to avoid re-work.

One question in breaking down usually is - when to stop? A rule of thumb may be - if an item feels to take longer than a week - break it down and continue until all of your items are small enough.

After breaking down the project into manageable units, it's crucial to acknowledge your progress with each task completed. By celebrating these small victories, you can boost your motivation to tackle the remaining tasks within your set time frame. This approach not only helps in combating the planning fallacy but also fosters a sense of accomplishment and momentum throughout the project.

I call feedback times, moments of truth, and imagine working on launching a new product campaign. you and your team are confident in your chosen marketing channels and strategies, assuming widespread appeal. As you neared the launch date, a team member suggested conducting a pre-launch survey to gather feedback from a small sample of their target audience. The survey revealed unexpected preferences and concerns that the team hadn't considered. Seeking feedback earlier on allowed the team to adapt their strategy, ensuring a more accurate and successful project outcome.

For all project planning, you need to understand that most of the project and team projects are collaborative for all of them. Then, you need to consider all the external stakeholders, too. This will also help with the time allocation and the whole project mapping. Whenever an external partner/stakeholder is involved in the project phase, you should double the expected time for completion of that phase. The whole planning is already collaborative work and should be done together in working meetings.

By incorporating diverse viewpoints and considering past experiences, you can obtain a more accurate understanding of the project's complexity and potential obstacles. Additionally, utilising historical data and benchmarking against similar projects can provide valuable references for estimating timeframes and identifying potential areas of delay. Overall, seeking feedback and input promotes a more realistic and comprehensive approach to project planning, helping mitigate the risks associated with the planning fallacy.

Consult with team members, stakeholders, and experts to gather different perspectives on the project timeline. This can help identify potential pitfalls and areas where additional time or resources may be needed.

In order to avoid the planning fallacy, it is beneficial to seek feedback and input from those who have relevant knowledge, experience, or perspective on the project. This can aid in validating or challenging assumptions and estimates, identifying potential problems or risks that may have been overlooked or underestimated, learning from the lessons of those who have done similar projects before, and incorporating different viewpoints that can enhance the quality and feasibility of the project. Ultimately, seeking feedback and input can help to reduce personal biases and blind spots while increasing accuracy and realism in project timelines.

Regularly review the progress of the project and adjust timelines as needed. This helps account for unforeseen delays and keeps expectations realistic.

Some ways to get started: - Collect data - Compare your plan vs actual time taken - Identify variances - Are these because of optimistic planning, unforeseen obstacles, or resource constraints? Use your lessons to implement changes: - re-schedule next weeks tasks - remember to add buffers - break tasks down into even smaller tasks - Continue to iterate Don't expect perfection, but improvement.

Consideration of external variables, such as market changes, regulatory updates, and technology advancements, that could impact the project timeline. This foresight helps in building a more resilient and realistic schedule. Remember, continuous monitoring, flexibility, and learning from past experiences are key to mitigating the planning fallacy and creating more accurate project timelines.

Regularly reviewing and revising project plans based on actual progress and feedback is essential for staying on track and adapting to changing circumstances. This iterative process helps to identify and address issues early, optimize resource allocation, and maintain alignment with project goals, ultimately increasing the likelihood of successful outcomes.

The project plan is an active document/asset. Whenever engaging with the project, you should also update and actively use the plan as a tool for yourself. It's not something you create and then revise after finishing the project. Again, it should be a live and collaborative document and shared with everyone who is involved and encouraged to update it. One important thing is still to have a dedicated owner for the document and plan. The ownership needs to be assigned clearly.

Remember Murphy’s Law: what can go wrong, will go wrong. Your projects won’t run perfectly, even if you have the best intentions. Build your plan accordingly. It’s not to say that negativity will help you accomplish your goals, but approaching planning from a conservative, risk management standpoint will help curb enthusiasm.

- OAC meetings should involve all pipeline stakeholders not just Os, As, and primary Cs. - PM should be on robust construction/project management software with dependencies/critical path/GANTTs and updating/distributing at least weekly - Pad times up front, dial them in as you go. Fabricator says 6-8 weeks? Plan in 10-12. As the project advances, pad less and dial in the exact times and variances. Use the flex at the beginning to prevent bottlenecks and firedrills toward the end - In 27 years of hospitality design & construction I have seen exactly two projects open on time. Both in Vegas casinos with paid guarantees and 24-hour crews finishing the build. Accept that nobody opens on schedule or on budget, and plan for it. - Coffee helps.

Além de analisar os dados históricos e perguntar às pessoas a estimativa de tempo para cada item, é importante adicionar uma margem de seguran?a para imprevistos e atrasos. Na minha vis?o, uma margem de 15-20% tende a funcionar bem, mas isso pode variar dependendo da natureza do projeto e do cenário da equipe

Consider using reference class forecasting. Case studies help a lot. This involves comparing your project to similar past projects to predict timelines more accurately. Additionally, incorporating buffer times, regularly updating plans based on progress, and employing project management software to track tasks can help mitigate the planning fallacy.

Many times, overly optimistic project timelines stem from instincts to simply survive — perhaps not literally, but certainly competitively. Understanding that time is money and project budgets finite, if projects were saddled with realistic timeline during the planning phase, it’s likely many projects would be sidelined before they even began. This is quite the incentive for project managers to portray optimism. The experienced project manager offering the more realistic timeline is just as likely to get undermined by a slick or novice PM seeking to complete on delivery time. Reality aside, by the time the first extension is requested, sunk cost fallacy ensure the project forges ahead — original decision makers likely to have moved on.