How can you apply the theory of change model in complex contexts?

In a world that constantly evolves, navigating complex contexts can be a formidable challenge. We often turn to powerful tools like the Theory of Change model to tackle these intricacies and drive meaningful change. The Theory of Change model empowers us to approach complexity with a structured, adaptable strategy. Following these steps and staying open to learning can drive positive change even in the most intricate contexts. #TheoryOfChange #ComplexContexts #ChangeManagement #ImpactfulStrategies

before you dive deep into cooking up your grand plan (a.k.a your theory of change), you gotta get the lay of the land. Know what's up. What's the problem you're tackling? Who are the peeps you wanna bring into the mix? What's already out there that you can tap into? And don't forget about the wild cards – those sneaky things that might mess with your game. Tools like stakeholder maps, problem trees, and SWOTs are your BFFs here. By getting this lowdown, you'll set up clear vibes for what you wanna achieve. Got it? Cool, now go rock that change! ??

Indeed, the context or the environment in which you apply a change definitely matters. Specifically for social impact initiatives, the cultural and the economic context may be the more significant than perhaps some other dimensions. In establishing the cultural/economic context, it may be useful to evaluate the target environment's change history, concurrent initiatives and resources available vis a vis the contours of the current change such as the scope (incremental/radical), scale (breadth/depth/strata targeted) and type (policy, process, technology). This juxtaposition of environmental dimensions vs change dimensions can offer significant insights on establishing the vision and the roadmap.

All roads should lead to your ultimate goal or overall purpose. Whichever service or activity you're creating a theory of change for (if you multiple activities that don't all deliver similar outcomes and impacts you'll need separate theories of change) they need to connect to your overall organisational theory of change so they are contributing to your overall purpose.

When driving change, we often focus on specific challenges, without looking at the bigger picture. In my experience it is best to keep the overall outcome in mind at all times. Focussing on the bigger outcome ensure you keep an open mind for alternatives, and more importantly, forces you to step into the people you are targeting with change, taking their perspective. This drives enhanced understanding, and ultimately delivers better outcomes in simpler ways.

As John Kotter calls out in his Change Management model, building a powerful guiding coalition is critical for any change. Such a coalition, when comprised of powerful influencers can act as intermediaries to both capture stakeholder expectations & concerns, and to communicate the change vision and benefits. Having such intermediaries not just expedites the initial co-creation but also increases the agility in roadmap adaptation and enables requisite pivots on the approach without compromising on the vision.

The biggest change ever in history was the e-commerce change that created billions of experts within a decade. Today, the most significant tidal wave is remote workers and the global mobilization of the gig economy. Mindset Hypothesis Behold the new powers of LinkedIn as the well-laid-out profiles now expose all real and hidden talents and clearly indicate the mindsets applied. On large-scale analysis, the entire departmental capabilities are revealed. This a good thing... now LinkedIn be becomes a guide to evaluate and predict outcomes.... study "mindset hypothesis" on Google and job seekers and job creators mindsets must balance....

Change is a minuscule manifestation of transformation. From business perspective ‘theory of change’ is like a proposition, what I think apt for the enterprise to embrace to achieve the target state and proceed with the roadmap. Basis the extraneous variables and internal ecosystem desired state gets changed so it is an endless journey. Following initiatives help to justify it's dynamic nature: 1. Feedback loop 2. Idea generation 3. Prototyping 4. Co-design In a way to collaborate with all the stakeholders to gather input and continue with the journey of excellence. Another advantage of co-creation is involving the end users to design the prototype. This approach is well accepted in agile environment that supports continuous iterations.

Co-creation is imperative. There are stacks and stacks of scientific journals filled with articles that are each proving something. Millions of them! Perspective is essential, and experience of others points of views should be relied upon.

The changes depend, if they are urgent, or with projection. If they are urgent, the necessary strategies and tests A and B must be put in place for a correct functioning. Now the long term changes are more positive, because there is already a margin of time to analyze, test, study, etc.

I prefer good old fashioned mind mapping on poster boards that get transferred into digitized tags and filled data. To formulate scenarios, I work with actuaries who write macros custom to the problems that I am trying to solve. This way I can manipulate my complex systems.

In simplifying & visualizing the theory of change, its critical to retain or add elements that tug the heart while not overloading the brain. Story crafting, and storytelling is often considered to be a great way to both visualize the change, and to subsequently disseminate or communicate the theory of change. There is perhaps no other means that can get the audience as emotionally involved, as calling out the history context, naming the inciting incident and its repercussions, and hence projecting the change theory.

Think of the theory of change model like a GPS. You don't just punch in an address and blindly follow it without ever looking out the window. Sometimes, there's a detour or a better route, right? So, with this model, you're constantly checking in, seeing how things are going, and adjusting as needed. You gather intel from things like surveys, chats with folks, or group discussions. The goal? To figure out what's working, what's not, and how to pivot. It's all about learning and tweaking as you go. Got it? Cool. Keep it flexible and keep those eyes on the road! ??

As part of the design process, it is important to identify the major risks and assumptions across the various levels of the TOC, to ensure that the logic used holds within its relevant context, and is rooted in the realm of possibility. Additionally, defining the organisation's Spheres of control and influence, at which levels are we accountable for the results identified, and at what levels do we only contribute to those changes is also useful for MEAL purposes.

I've always recommended an annual review of your theory of change covering: is your ultimate goal/purpose right still, are you focusing on the right outcomes and impacts that show your progress towards your ultimate goal, and are you capturing the data in the right way/using the right methods/approaches.

Think of the theory of change model like your favorite app on your phone. It doesn't stay the same forever, right? It gets updates, new features, and sometimes a whole new look based on feedback and changes. Similarly, your theory of change isn’t a one-and-done deal. You've got to keep checking in on it, making tweaks based on what you learn along the way. Whether it's through group chats (reflection sessions), jotting down notes (learning journals), or checking your progress dashboard, always be ready to pivot. This way, you stay flexible and ready to navigate whatever comes your way. Keep it fresh and adaptive!

Not all stakeholders will understand a traditional theory of change model. It can take a bit to get used to how they work. If you’re communicating about your theory of change, give some thought to what stakeholders need to know and how to best communicate with them. It might mean presenting in a different format - a simplified graphic poster or even a video might be better than a classic theory of change diagram.

The theory of change model, when overtly simplified is essentially an IF (conditions, actions)-THEN (results) construct. There are only so many extraneous variables that can be considered when undertaking this exercise in the initial stage. Ability to undertake actions, and the consequences of those actions is likely to be quite different from initial anticipations. Hence its critical to take a discovery-driven approach, with options baked in, that allows for appropriate pivots.