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How can you anticipate future multimodal transportation scenarios?

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Multimodal transportation planning is the process of designing and managing transportation systems that integrate different modes of travel, such as walking, biking, transit, carpooling, and driving. It aims to improve mobility, accessibility, safety, efficiency, and sustainability of transportation for people and goods. However, multimodal transportation planning also faces many challenges and uncertainties, such as changing travel behavior, emerging technologies, environmental impacts, and social equity. How can you anticipate future multimodal transportation scenarios and plan accordingly? Here are some tips and tools to help you.

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1 Understand the context

The first step to anticipate future multimodal transportation scenarios is to understand the context of your planning area. This includes the current and projected demographic, economic, land use, and transportation characteristics, as well as the goals, policies, and preferences of the stakeholders and the public. You can use various data sources, such as census, surveys, traffic counts, GIS, and scenario planning software, to analyze the existing and future conditions and trends. You can also engage with the community and other agencies to identify the needs, opportunities, and challenges of multimodal transportation.

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Cynthia G. Powers, MS

Enterprise Engineer - Giving Shape & Form to Speculation
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The context is who controls the money. Our present system is built upon the lobbying efforts of the oil companies and car manufacturers. Building a system that moves the most people at the lowest negative impact places value on the use of land, the effect on the environment, and the impact on human physical health.

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Don Powers

Member/Manager, Powers At Law, LLC
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It will be very interesting to see what the will of the General Public is on this issue. It appears that politics and economic mismanagement have already determined that there are only two acceptable forms of transportation. Walking and Bicycling. Otherwise why would you need 15 minute cities. Let's see the politicians be brave enough to allow the people to vote on these subjects.

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2 Define the scenarios

The next step is to define the scenarios that you want to explore and compare. Scenarios are plausible and consistent stories about how the future might unfold, based on different assumptions and drivers. You can use qualitative and quantitative methods to create and describe the scenarios, such as narrative, matrix, cross-impact, and morphological analysis. You can also use different criteria to categorize the scenarios, such as baseline, alternative, optimistic, pessimistic, or normative. The scenarios should reflect the uncertainty and diversity of the future and cover a range of possible outcomes.

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Bryce Miller

Transportation & Regional Planner | AICP Certified
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In situations with deep uncertainty, the number of scenarios required to evaluate policy decisions and investments balloons rapidly. Tools like VisionEval let you explore hundreds or even thousands of scenarios and see how choices will impact transportation performance across a wider range of possible futures.

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3 Evaluate the impacts

The third step is to evaluate the impacts of the scenarios on multimodal transportation performance and outcomes. You can use various indicators and measures to assess the impacts, such as mode share, travel time, accessibility, emissions, safety, health, equity, and cost. You can also use different tools and models to estimate and visualize the impacts, such as sketch planning, travel demand, network analysis, microsimulation, and geographic information systems. You can also apply sensitivity and risk analysis to test the robustness and resilience of the scenarios.

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4 Compare and prioritize

The fourth step is to compare and prioritize the scenarios based on their impacts and alignment with the goals and objectives of multimodal transportation planning. You can use different methods and techniques to compare and prioritize the scenarios, such as multicriteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, trade-off analysis, and decision support systems. You can also involve the stakeholders and the public in the comparison and prioritization process, using methods such as workshops, surveys, focus groups, and voting. You can also use feedback and iteration to refine and improve the scenarios.

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5 Develop strategies

The fifth step is to develop strategies that can help you achieve the desired multimodal transportation scenario or scenarios. Strategies are actions and interventions that can influence the transportation system and its outcomes, such as policies, programs, projects, and partnerships. You can use different sources and methods to identify and generate strategies, such as best practices, literature review, brainstorming, and innovation. You can also use different criteria and methods to evaluate and select strategies, such as feasibility, effectiveness, efficiency, and acceptability.

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Davin Wallace , P.E.
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The identification of plausible funding sources is an important component in the process of developing successful strategies. Even the best strategies with well conceived scenarios and supporting policy will have little influence if insufficient resources are available to implement that strategies.

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6 Monitor and update

The final step is to monitor and update the scenarios and strategies based on the changing conditions and feedback. You can use different data sources and methods to monitor the progress and performance of the scenarios and strategies, such as indicators, benchmarks, dashboards, and evaluations. You can also use different mechanisms and platforms to communicate and report the results and findings, such as reports, presentations, websites, and social media. You can also use adaptive management and learning to update and adjust the scenarios and strategies as needed.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you anticipate future multimodal transportation scenarios?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the context

2 Define the scenarios

3 Evaluate the impacts

4 Compare and prioritize

5 Develop strategies

6 Monitor and update

7 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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How can you anticipate future multimodal transportation scenarios?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the context

2 Define the scenarios

3 Evaluate the impacts

4 Compare and prioritize

5 Develop strategies

6 Monitor and update

7 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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感谢您的反馈

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