How can tourism forecasting collaborate with other sectors and stakeholders to address climate change issues?

1 The impacts of climate change on tourism

Climate change is one of the most significant threats to the tourism industry, as it affects both the natural and cultural resources that attract tourists, as well as the infrastructure and services that support them. Temperature, precipitation, and seasonality changes can affect the availability and quality of tourism destinations and activities, such as skiing, beach tourism, wildlife viewing, and cultural events. Additionally, extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, droughts, heat waves, and wildfires, can pose risks to the safety and comfort of tourists and tourism operators, as well as to the physical and economic assets of tourism destinations. Sea level rise, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion can also threaten the viability and attractiveness of coastal and island tourism destinations, as well as the infrastructure and ecosystems that support them. Finally, the loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural heritage can reduce the diversity and value of tourism attractions and experiences, as well as the benefits that tourism provides to local communities and conservation efforts.

3 The role of tourism forecasting in climate change mitigation

Climate change mitigation refers to the actions and strategies that aim to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and enhance the carbon sinks that contribute to global warming. Tourism forecasting can also be a key factor in climate change mitigation, providing information and insights that can help tourism decision-makers and practitioners identify and assess current and future sources of emissions, develop and implement mitigation plans, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation actions, and communicate and disseminate the results and best practices. Furthermore, it can help ensure that mitigation plans are consistent with international and national commitments and targets, as well as with the principles and practices of low-carbon and green tourism.

4 The challenges and gaps of tourism forecasting and climate change

Despite the potential and importance of tourism forecasting and climate change, there are also many challenges and gaps that limit its application and usefulness. These include a lack of data and information on the current and future impacts and responses of tourism and climate change, as well as a lack of coordination and collaboration among the different sectors and stakeholders involved. Additionally, there is a lack of awareness and capacity among tourism decision-makers and practitioners on the relevance and value of tourism forecasting and climate change, as well as a lack of resources and support for tourism forecasting and climate change. All of these factors can create barriers and constraints that may prevent or discourage the adoption and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.

5 The recommendations and implications of tourism forecasting and climate change

To overcome the challenges and gaps of tourism forecasting and climate change, and to enhance its contribution and impact, some recommendations and implications should be considered. Improving data and information on tourism and climate change, by collecting, analyzing, and sharing reliable and relevant data and indicators, as well as developing and applying robust and flexible forecasting and scenario methods and models, is essential. Enhancing the coordination and collaboration among tourism and climate change sectors and stakeholders, by establishing and strengthening the platforms and mechanisms for dialogue, consultation, and partnership, as well as harmonizing and aligning the policies and frameworks for tourism and climate change, is also important. Increasing the awareness and capacity of tourism decision-makers and practitioners on tourism and climate change, by providing and promoting education and training opportunities, as well as disseminating and demonstrating success stories and good examples of tourism forecasting and climate change, is also necessary. Finally, mobilizing the resources and support for tourism and climate change, by leveraging and diversifying the sources and channels of funding and financing, as well as removing and reducing the institutional and behavioral barriers and incentives for tourism forecasting and climate change, is key.