How can scenario planning identify transportation system vulnerabilities?

3 How to create scenarios for transportation planning?

To create scenarios for transportation planning, planners need to follow a systematic process that involves several steps. First, they need to define the scope and purpose of the scenario exercise, such as the geographic area, time horizon, and objectives. Second, they need to collect and analyze relevant data and information about the current and future trends and drivers that affect the transportation system. Third, they need to identify the key uncertainties and variables that could influence the future outcomes and challenges. Fourth, they need to generate and select a set of plausible and diverse scenarios that represent different combinations of the uncertainties and variables. Fifth, they need to describe and visualize the scenarios using narratives, maps, diagrams, or indicators.

4 How to analyze scenarios for transportation planning?

To analyze scenarios for transportation planning, planners need to use appropriate methods and tools that can help them compare and evaluate the scenarios and their implications for the transportation system. Some of the methods and tools that can be used are:

- Performance analysis : This involves measuring and comparing the performance of the transportation system across different scenarios using indicators or criteria, such as accessibility, congestion, safety, emissions, or equity.

- Sensitivity analysis : This involves assessing how sensitive or responsive the transportation system is to changes in the key uncertainties or variables across different scenarios.

- Gap analysis : This involves identifying the gaps or discrepancies between the current or desired state of the transportation system and the future state under different scenarios.

- SWOT analysis : This involves identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the transportation system under different scenarios.

5 How to use scenarios for transportation planning?

To use scenarios for transportation planning, planners need to translate the insights and findings from the scenario analysis into actionable and strategic recommendations that can address the transportation system vulnerabilities and enhance its resilience and performance. Some of the ways that scenarios can be used for transportation planning are:

- Visioning : This involves developing a shared and long-term vision for the transportation system that reflects the desired outcomes and values of the stakeholders and aligns with the preferred or best-case scenario.

- Strategizing : This involves developing a set of policies, programs, projects, or actions that can help achieve the vision and cope with the uncertainties and challenges of the different scenarios.

- Prioritizing : This involves ranking or selecting the most important or effective strategies that can address the transportation system vulnerabilities and optimize the performance and resilience of the system across different scenarios.

- Monitoring : This involves tracking and evaluating the progress and impacts of the strategies and adjusting them as needed based on the changes in the scenarios or the performance of the system.