How can scenario planning help you prepare clients for future challenges?

Scenario planning is a critical exercise, but it's essential to recognize its limitations and potential pitfalls. - Relying too heavily on scenario planning can lead to paralysis by analysis, as companies might over-prepare for unlikely futures while missing out on present opportunities. - The creation of too many scenarios may result in a loss of focus, with resources spread thin across planning for various futures that may never materialize. - It's easy to be swayed by compelling narratives in scenarios, but without grounding them in data, they can misguide strategic decisions.

Scenario planning is a strategic chess game with the future. It's about broadening your battlefield to anticipate moves and countermoves. Here's the crux: - It's a mix of art and science, where data meets imagination; you can't just spreadsheet your way through it. - It pushes back against the tunnel vision that cripples businesses, forcing leaders to look beyond the usual forecasts and models. - At its worst, it's a glorified guessing game; at its best, it's a tool that primes your business for resilience, come what may.

The worst time to plan for a problem, is when you face a crisis. Planning in peacetime pays big dividends. Firstly it forces lateral thought. What other possibilities exist, what might we not see, what if we think bigger ...? This uncovers opportunities, and reveals risks. Secondly, with wider foresight, we can prepare better to face opportunity and adversity. A small preparation now can make all the difference later. So we can better skew the odds in our favour, and prepare much more efficiently for the future. Making such scenario plans, is an art - combining data, history & imagination. Which is best started by asking yourself to imagine every possible scenarios - then weight these. This exercise is invaluable - be forewarned.

In a world of increasing uncertainty, especially when you try to look over the horizon, scenarios help you test the robustness of your investments. As a wise Scenario man once told - scenarios help you to minimise the maximum inpact of your investment decisions - Game Theorists call it 'minimax'. In layman's language - stopping you making really bad decisions. If something doesn't stack up when tested against 2 diverse scenarios, it's probably not the smartest move. It may look great today but you may live to regret it.

Applying scenario planning for consulting clients is about equipping them for uncertainty: - It's a training ground, where you teach clients to anticipate disruptions and pivot accordingly, not just cling to the status quo. - You're helping them to build a playbook of strategies, not just one rigid game plan, making them agile in the face of change. - The goal is to turn reactive clients into proactive visionaries who don't just survive future shocks but leverage them as opportunities.

Imagine we're advising a car manufacturer about future mobility. The cone of plausibility is our sandbox, and foresight is our superpower. - Near Future (Highly Plausible): We paint a picture where electric vehicles (EVs) dominate, governments offer hefty incentives for EV production, and our client needs to electrify their lineup, fast. - Mid-Term Future (Possible): Self-driving technology takes the wheel. Our client isn't just an automaker now; they're a tech company, investing heavily in AI and navigating regulatory mazes. - Long-Term Future (Speculative): Here comes the wildcard—flying cars. It's a stretch, but if we're not at least sketching out this scenario, we're not pushing the foresight envelope.