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How can plant operators improve their forecasting skills?

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Forecasting is a vital skill for plant operators, as it helps them plan and optimize their production, inventory, and logistics processes. However, forecasting is also a complex and dynamic task that requires constant learning and improvement. How can plant operators enhance their forecasting skills and achieve better results? Here are some tips and best practices to consider.

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Edgar A Flores A

Power Plant O&M Professional | Power/Steam Generation & Distribution | Mentor & Trainer | Passionate about Process…
Mohammed Al-Jazwi

Operations Supervisor - Process Supervisor - Shift Supervisor - Team Lead | Lean Six Sigma Certified - 6σ - ISO…
Tashfeen Ahmed

Deputy Chief Engineer (Operations) at Pakistan Petroleum Limited. Oil & Gas Process / Lead Production Operations…

1 Understand the demand patterns

The first step to improve forecasting is to understand the demand patterns of your products and customers. Demand patterns are the trends, cycles, seasonality, and variability that affect the demand for your products. By analyzing the historical and current data, you can identify the demand patterns and use them to forecast future demand more accurately. You can also use tools such as demand classification, segmentation, and profiling to group your products and customers based on their demand characteristics and behavior.

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Edgar A Flores A

Power Plant O&M Professional | Power/Steam Generation & Distribution | Mentor & Trainer | Passionate about Process Optimization
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In my experience, The first step to improving forecasting skills is Knowing each equipment/system, which will lead to the operator knowing the capacity/design/variables that can manage and create a quick cause-effect in their minds. Demand patterns like trends, cycles, and variability are very important to check the behavior of the system/equipment.

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Mohammed Al-Jazwi

Operations Supervisor - Process Supervisor - Shift Supervisor - Team Lead | Lean Six Sigma Certified - 6σ - ISO 14001:2015 - Auditor - IOSH
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- Understanding the process, operational demands and establishing a basis. - Following up with the indusrty last updates and creating a research basis. - Estimating and comparing the current forecasting methods against the once needed. - Selecting and algining the right forecasting method for the requirements. - Adjusting the forecast and reviewing the forecasting process. - Concluding the output and evaluting the impact.

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Tashfeen Ahmed

Deputy Chief Engineer (Operations) at Pakistan Petroleum Limited. Oil & Gas Process / Lead Production Operations Engineer I Certified Lead Auditor ISO 9001 I LSSBB?
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By conducting survey including new promotions to know about the market demand. As per my experience peoples and market always required discounted promotions, therefore, it is required to introduce new products and discount promotions to foresee forecast.

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Bhagirathsinh Makavana

Industrial Millwright (433A) : Machinery maintenance | HVAC O & M | Building Automation and Operations |PLC | MES | SAP-ECC
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Plant operators can improve their forecasting by: 1. Having enough experience on a particular machine (machines are like humans, over a period of time one can understand how the machine will behave under certain situations). 2. Knowing the machine, its attachments, assemblies and other parts which operate in sync with the main equipment. 3. Involving the cross-functional team during major breakdowns or preventive maintenance. 4. To give operator freedom to discuss technicalities with managers or supervisor. 5. One may also use softwares to predict breakdowns or overhauling time. This is one the most neglected side of operations nowadays. But the best engineers/operators are those who have good forecasting skills.

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2 Choose the right forecasting methods

The second step to improve forecasting is to choose the right forecasting methods for your products and situations. Forecasting methods are the techniques and models that you use to generate forecasts based on the data and assumptions. There are different types of forecasting methods, such as qualitative, quantitative, causal, and time series. You should select the forecasting methods that best suit your data availability, accuracy requirements, time horizon, and complexity. You should also compare and evaluate the performance of different forecasting methods using metrics such as mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean squared error.

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Tashfeen Ahmed

Deputy Chief Engineer (Operations) at Pakistan Petroleum Limited. Oil & Gas Process / Lead Production Operations Engineer I Certified Lead Auditor ISO 9001 I LSSBB?
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It's all about to know the demand of market and introduce the promotion by considering the capital investment in order to meet the demand by quantitative or qualitative products.

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3 Update and revise your forecasts regularly

The third step to improve forecasting is to update and revise your forecasts regularly based on the new information and changes in the market conditions. Forecasting is not a one-time activity, but a continuous process that requires feedback and adjustment. You should monitor your actual demand and compare it with your forecasted demand to identify any gaps or errors. You should also incorporate any new data, such as customer orders, promotions, or disruptions, into your forecasts. By updating and revising your forecasts regularly, you can reduce the forecast errors and improve the forecast accuracy.

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4 Collaborate and communicate with stakeholders

The fourth step to improve forecasting is to collaborate and communicate with your internal and external stakeholders. Forecasting is not a solo activity, but a team effort that involves input and coordination from different functions and parties. You should collaborate and communicate with your sales, marketing, finance, and supply chain teams to share your forecasts, assumptions, and plans. You should also communicate with your suppliers, customers, and distributors to align your forecasts, expectations, and capabilities. By collaborating and communicating with your stakeholders, you can improve the forecast reliability and responsiveness.

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5 Learn from your mistakes and successes

The fifth step to improve forecasting is to learn from your mistakes and successes. Forecasting is a learning activity that requires reflection and improvement. You should analyze your forecast errors and deviations to understand the root causes and effects. You should also identify your forecast strengths and weaknesses to recognize the best practices and areas for improvement. By learning from your mistakes and successes, you can improve your forecasting skills and knowledge.

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Tashfeen Ahmed

Deputy Chief Engineer (Operations) at Pakistan Petroleum Limited. Oil & Gas Process / Lead Production Operations Engineer I Certified Lead Auditor ISO 9001 I LSSBB?
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This is very important to know about your past mistakes and learn for future plan. This will always help you to future business and fulfill the market demands.

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6 Keep up with the latest trends and technologies

The sixth step to improve forecasting is to keep up with the latest trends and technologies that affect your industry and products. Forecasting is a dynamic activity that requires adaptation and innovation. You should be aware of the changes and developments in the market, customer, and competitor landscape that influence your demand and supply. You should also explore the new tools and techniques, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data, that can enhance your forecasting capabilities and performance. By keeping up with the latest trends and technologies, you can improve your forecasting agility and competitiveness.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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CHIJIOKE EJIOFOR, PMP, CPM, ACIPM, ACIEHS

Mechanical Engineering Technologist
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One more thing i have realize that is helpful is data analyst or what some plant refer to as planners, production planners, maintenance planners etc. and this is because it's not enough to understand trends, you have to match your understanding with facts. Moreso you can't be sure of regular updating your forecasting base on changes in trends without referencing your fact that shows you if indeed the trends changed. Hence there's also a need to have a data analyst to help in improving forecasting skill.

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How can plant operators improve their forecasting skills?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the demand patterns

2 Choose the right forecasting methods

3 Update and revise your forecasts regularly

4 Collaborate and communicate with stakeholders

5 Learn from your mistakes and successes

6 Keep up with the latest trends and technologies

7 Here’s what else to consider

Plant Operations

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How can plant operators improve their forecasting skills?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the demand patterns

2 Choose the right forecasting methods

3 Update and revise your forecasts regularly

4 Collaborate and communicate with stakeholders

5 Learn from your mistakes and successes

6 Keep up with the latest trends and technologies

7 Here’s what else to consider

Plant Operations

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