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Last updated on 2024年6月30日

Here's how you can effectively convey uncertainty and risk to stakeholders as an Operations Research expert.

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In Operations Research (OR), conveying uncertainty and risk is as critical as the analysis itself. As an expert in OR, you have the tools and methodologies to analyze complex systems, but your ability to communicate findings to stakeholders determines the impact of your work. Your audience may not share your technical background, so it's essential to translate data-driven insights into actionable information. By acknowledging uncertainties and risks, you can help stakeholders make informed decisions, balancing potential rewards against the probabilities of different outcomes.

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Cesar Oboni

Principal Consultant (Risk)
Gad Bellity

Operational Risk Manager
Frants Preis

Investment Professional | CFA | CAIA | CFP?

1 个答复

1 Understand Risk

Risk is the possibility of a negative event occurring, and in Operations Research, it's often quantified by probability. To convey risk effectively, you should explain the likelihood of various outcomes in a manner that is easy to understand. Use real-world examples or analogies that relate to stakeholders' experiences. For instance, compare the risk of a supply chain disruption to that of a common event like traffic congestion, which they can easily grasp. Clarifying that risk is an inherent part of decision-making helps stakeholders to accept it as a factor to manage rather than an obstacle to avoid.

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Gad Bellity

Operational Risk Manager
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Je crois qu’il faut définir le risque comme la conséquence possible d’un événement. Par exemple, si je glisse je peux me casser la jambe. - le processus c’est marcher - l’événement c’est glisser - le risque avéré, de ce casser la jambe Dans l’analyse du risque et la modélisation, il est bon d’avoir des termes simples et de parler de la même chose.

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Frants Preis

Investment Professional | CFA | CAIA | CFP?
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In investing, risk is about the chance of losing money permanently, not just seeing your investments go up and down (volatility). It's like driving to work: traffic jams are like market changes, and the risk of a car accident is like the possibility of losing money on an investment. Recognizing and dealing with risk means preparing for setbacks, like planning for traffic delays, instead of avoiding them, to reach your financial goals.

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Henrique Coelho Barbosa

Vice President | CEO | Engenheiro de Controle e Automa??o | Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt I | Me. Engenharia de Sistemas e Automa??o | IA Devops | System Solver Math Models - PO |
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As an Operational Research specialist, it’s crucial to communicate uncertainty and risk clearly. Use probabilistic terms and scenarios to describe potential outcomes. Visual aids like graphs can help. Be transparent about assumptions, model limitations, and data quality. Engage stakeholders in the analysis process for better understanding and buy-in. Always plan for contingencies and recommend risk mitigation strategies.

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2 Define Uncertainty

Uncertainty in Operations Research refers to the unknown variables that can affect outcomes. It's vital to distinguish between risk, which can be measured, and uncertainty, which cannot. When discussing uncertainty with stakeholders, focus on scenarios rather than precise predictions. Describe the range of possible outcomes and the factors that could influence them. This approach allows stakeholders to consider the breadth of potential situations without the false comfort of exact numbers, preparing them for a variety of future conditions.

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Cesar Oboni

Principal Consultant (Risk)
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In my experience, presenting a range of scenarios to stakeholders rather than precise predictions is highly effective. When discussing the risk assessment of tailings storage facilities (TSF) in a mining operation, outlining best-case, moderate, and worst-case scenarios provides clarity. For example, in the best-case scenario, optimal conditions allow the TSF to operate smoothly, with routine maintenance addressing minor issues. This approach helps stakeholders understand the full spectrum of potential outcomes, fostering better preparation and resource allocation. It emphasizes the importance of considering various future conditions, rather than relying on the false comfort of exact numbers.

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3 Use Visuals

Visual aids can be powerful tools when explaining complex concepts like uncertainty and risk. Graphs, charts, and simulations are excellent for illustrating potential outcomes and their associated probabilities. For instance, a Monte Carlo simulation can visually represent a range of scenarios and their likelihood, making the abstract concept of probability more tangible. Always tailor your visuals to the audience's level of expertise, ensuring they are not overwhelmed by technical details but are provided with enough information to understand the key messages.

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4 Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis is a technique that examines the outcomes of different decisions under various future states of the world. Present stakeholders with a few plausible scenarios, including best-case, worst-case, and most likely outcomes. Explain the assumptions behind each scenario and how changes in these assumptions could alter the results. This method helps stakeholders visualize the impact of uncertainty on their decisions and encourages them to think critically about the factors that could influence their success or failure.

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5 Decision Trees

Decision trees are a graphical representation of the decision-making process that includes the possible options, outcomes, risks, and uncertainties. When you present a decision tree, you guide stakeholders through a logical progression from each decision point to its potential consequences. This visualization helps them understand the trade-offs involved in each choice and the potential impact of uncertainty on each branch of the tree. By making the decision process transparent, stakeholders can appreciate the complexity involved and make more informed choices.

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6 Communicate Clearly

Clear communication is paramount when discussing uncertainty and risk. Avoid jargon and use simple language to ensure stakeholders from all backgrounds can follow your explanations. It's also important to be honest about the limitations of your analysis and the potential for unforeseen events. Encourage questions and be prepared to explain concepts multiple times from different angles until you are confident that stakeholders have a firm grasp of the information. Remember, your goal is not only to inform but also to build trust through transparency.

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Adam J. Hepworth, PhD

Director | Global Military AI Expert | Visiting Fellow | Tech Innovation | Artificial Intelligence | Decision Science | Operations Research | Robotics & Autonomous Systems
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Storytelling and analogies can effectively communicate uncertainty and risk to non-technical stakeholders. Relatability, incremental complexity, analogous mapping, and engagement are four ideas that ensure an understanding of the story and real-world uncertainty. First, begin with a simple and relatable analogy that all stakeholders will understand. Gradually build on this analogy, introducing more complex elements that align with the real-world use case. Ensure that the analogies closely align with the actual use case, with nuance and complexity mapped to the actual situation where appropriate. This approach will assist in better engaging stakeholder understanding, leading to more informed decision-making.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Here's how you can effectively convey uncertainty and risk to stakeholders as an Operations Research expert.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand Risk

2 Define Uncertainty

3 Use Visuals

4 Scenario Analysis

5 Decision Trees

6 Communicate Clearly

7 Here’s what else to consider

Operations Research

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Here's how you can effectively convey uncertainty and risk to stakeholders as an Operations Research expert.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand Risk

2 Define Uncertainty

3 Use Visuals

4 Scenario Analysis

5 Decision Trees

6 Communicate Clearly

7 Here’s what else to consider

Operations Research

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