You’re looking to improve your forecasting. How can you use a rolling forecast to help?

Keep in mind that a rolling forecast can be for a wide variety of time periods. It can be an annual rolling (12-month) forecast or quarterly or monthly. One common rolling forecast is a 13-week cash flow. This is especially useful in organizations where cash is tighter or leverage is higher.

Previs?o contínua ou rolling forecast, é uma abordagem de planejamento financeiro que inclui a atualiza??o contínua das proje??es financeiras ao longo do tempo. No lugar de se fazer apenas o ano fiscal (de janeiro a dezembro), o rolling forecast se estende constantemente para um período futuro específico, como sempre ter os próximos 12 ou 24 meses.

A rolling forecast gives you a forward-looking view of the business compared to a static forecast. A rolling forecast can be of varied periods depending on the business/operations need. As the current period ends it gets replaced by actual numbers and another (future) period is added to the rolling forecast.

A rolling forecast unlike a static one is a dynamic way to adjust your forecast based on the latest information, market trends, and unexpected events. This helps the business to have a more realistic picture of the business's future. By leveraging the recent data, the rolling forecast allows for making better decisions based on the changing business dynamics which leads to continuous improvement.

A rolling forecast is important because it considers the latest information available such as new market trends, new competitors actions and latest consumer preferences. It is also built on the latest actual results.

A rolling forecast provides agility to adjust to market shifts swiftly, ensuring strategy alignment with real-time insights. By integrating seamlessly with your weekly or 13-week cash flow forecast, it enhances accuracy and optimizes resource allocation. This dynamic approach fosters transparency, collaboration, and informed decision-making, driving sustainable growth.

There are a couple of advantages to a rolling forecast. First, it allows you to be more proactive by not delaying changes in plans to an annual budget process. Second, it gives you more accountability and reliability as you are continuously evaluating the forecast against actual performance. Finally, it forces the organization to be proactive in its planning by not relegating it to the one-per-year budget process.

De maneira resumida, o uso do rolling forecast aumenta a capacidade de resposta a mudan?as no ambiente de negócios. Se aparecer alguma variável que pode aumentar/diminuir o resultado projetado - consegue-se através desse novo cenário fazer ajustes.

Creating a rolling forecast involves defining its purpose, scope, and frequency. Choose the method and tools, build a forecast model, and regularly review and update it. Communication and reporting to stakeholders ensure alignment and accountability. Adjustments should be made based on new data and feedback.

If it's simply an annual rolling forecast, you can take your budget model and adapt it to be for a twelve-month rolling period. For many other types of forecasts, there exist great (and free) templates in Excel available as well as training videos on how to create on YouTube. Think about the most basic way to describe what you are trying to forecast and enter it into a search engine. You should be able to at least find a template that you can start with and modify to meet your needs. You may also consider that your ERP has tools to support rolling forecasts.

As etapas que podem ser seguidas para criar o rolling forecast pode ser descrita assim: - tempo (quantos meses você quer ter sempre projetado) - frequência (de quanto em quanto tempo será atualizado) - coleta de dados - ter identificado os principais drivers da empresa - revisar que modelo vai ser usado (importante ser um modelo que possa comparar com o budget e o realizado) - comunicar - acompanhar e ajustar

It is important to decide the objective, scope, and frequency of the forecast. A top-down or bottom-up approach can be used to create forecasts. Important KPI's are also required to be mapped and tracked for measuring the actual performance against the plan.

In straightforward terms, to implement a rolling budget, you begin with a 12-month budget covering January to December. After January ends, you assess the actual performance for January against the budgeted figures and take into account any recent market developments, such as the latest exchange rates. Then, you update the budget for the remaining months, February through December, using the newest data. Additionally, you extend the budget by adding another month at the end, for instance, next January, to maintain a continuous 12-month planning horizon. This process ensures your budget always reflects the most recent market trends and data observed in the latest completed month.

If you are not utilizing the rolling forecast to make decisions, I recommend scrapping it. I have two basic rules for reports - are they accurate and are they actionable. If your rolling forecast cannot support the organization in making adjustments, you need to ask if it's accurate and if you can take action based on the data presented.

A rolling forecast helps to make business decisions and actions in a dynamic business environment. This helps businesses mitigate some risks, optimize resources, and cost control, by taking corrective actions wherever required.

Segun mi experiencia , en un mundo tan cambiante como el nuestro , la importancia de realizar "pronosticos continuos " es crucial para la mejor marcha de la organización y estar preparados para los cambios en algunos de sus variables , como en el tipo de cambio, inflación, desastres naturales u otros . En ese sentido el pronostico debe ser flexible y recoger todos estos posibles cambios que se puedan dar en el tiempo .

There will be many tools to support forecasts and associated decision making, however it is not one size that fits all. Before adopting tools and technology one should consider below points - Align all stakeholders with buy-in - Try to mature process thru excel templates - Define parameters impacting forecast - As a next steps, it is important to link forecasts with production planning and supply chain for effective monitoring and implementation And lastly it is a journey

Shifting from static annual forecasts to rolling ones boosts agility, enabling real-time trend identification, risk mitigation, and seizing opportunities promptly. This iterative approach fosters team collaboration, alignment, and accountability. Ultimately, leveraging rolling forecasts enhances decision-making, organizational resilience, and competitiveness in today's dynamic business environment.

Implementing a rolling forecast can bring several challenges that organizations need to manage carefully. A primary issue to be mindful of is the potential confusion around the full-year financial targets. With the continuous adjustment of forecasts, stakeholders might find it difficult to grasp the evolving financial goals for the current year. This could lead to uncertainty about the organization's performance expectations and complicate the alignment of strategic objectives. Furthermore, the frequent updating of forecasts necessitates a significant amount of time and resources. The need for current data and the analysis to adjust future projections can strain teams, especially in smaller organizations with limited manpower.

En toda organización seria la planificación es de suma importancia porque ella nos va a llevar a tener una organización sana economica y financieramente . No entenderia alguna organización seria y robusta que no incluya como una de sus actividades principales a desarrollar, el proceso de planificar la cual debe estar alineada a la misión y visión de la organización .