You're faced with high-risk decisions. How can you navigate through uncertainty effectively?

Start with what facts you know. Build scenarios around what outcomes could happen and consider their likelihood and impact. Determine what factors you can control. Determine what factors you cannot control. Determine what actions you can take to influence the factors you can control and what actions can be taken about the factors you can't control. Prioritize, prioritize, prioritize and focus.

Standard operating procedures help take high risk decisions during uncertainties to a large extend. The interpretation of those orders also needs to be as unambiguous as possible. For example, the top two responsibilities for me as the captain of a submarine are:- 1. Safety of the ship 2. Safety of men and material onboard This means that the utmost important responsibility is the safety of the ship. This in turn can be construed as, in situations where the entire ship is in danger of being lost at sea, I am authorised to compromise, (in utmost unavoidable conditions), life of certain crew members. Similarly, if collision is imminent & a violent manoeuvre to avert collision can result in being grounded, I am expected to choose the latter.

Risk is inherent in everything, product or service, business, or leisure. Humans push boundaries by taking higher risks. Risk awareness is a function of experience, individual, collective or empirical. Taking risk or limiting risk depends on appetite. Hence different outcomes in achievements or failures. The key question that demystifies risk management is simply asking in an iterative process, “what if…”. Involve a diverse audience with different skills, experience, age, gender, orientation… Imagine scenarios. Be clinical and unemotional in identifying the possible outcomes and consequences. Assess whether you’re ready to live with that consequence if things go wrong. Take or avoid the risk. Wash, Rinse, Repeat!

Understand your institution. Make sure you have a correct knowledge of the direction your institution wants to take. Based on that understanding, one needs to breakdown the risks associated within each product offering and outline the needed factors to mitigate that risk as best as possible. Most importantly, write it all down for future reference.

I really like the "Leaders Reconnaissance" protocol highlighted by General Gordon R Sullivan and Michael V Harper in their book HOPE is Not a Method. 3 very simple steps: - What IS going on here - What IS NOT going on here - What CAN I DO to impact the action Works every time.

Effective decision-making under uncertainty starts with gathering as much relevant information as possible. Act like a detective by consulting experts, analyzing data, and considering past experiences to build a comprehensive understanding of the situation. However, beware of analysis paralysis—balance being well-informed with avoiding information overload to ensure timely and effective decisions.

Auch wenn das Sammeln und das Zusammentragen so vieler belastbarer Informationen wie m?glich essenziell ist, werde ich keine 100% Deckung hinbekommen. Deshalb ist fast noch entscheidender sich im Vorfeld einen Grad an akzeptabler Unsicherheit zu definieren. Welcher Anteil an Unsicherheit ist noch akzeptabel, um trotzdem eine belastbare Entscheidung treffen zu k?nnen.

Effective decision-making under uncertainty requires a thorough collection of relevant information: 1.Consult Experts: Leverage insights from individuals with specialized knowledge and experience. 2.Analyze Data: Examine current and historical data to uncover trends and patterns. 3.Consider Past Experiences: Reflect on previous similar situations and the outcomes they produced. The objective is to construct a detailed and nuanced picture of the situation. However, avoid "analysis paralysis" by seeking a balance between being well-informed and making timely decisions.

Another valuable perspective to consider is the importance of intuition and experience in decision-making under uncertainty. While gathering and analyzing information is crucial, seasoned intuition and past experiences often provide invaluable insights that data alone may not reveal. Decision-makers should trust their instincts and leverage their cumulative knowledge, especially in ambiguous situations where complete data is unavailable or rapidly changing. Balancing analytical rigor with intuitive judgment can enhance decision-making effectiveness, enabling a more holistic approach that integrates both hard data and experiential wisdom.

Before risk treatment takes place, it is very important to clarify who (which organization entity and individual) is the risk owner. When cosidering risks of IT-related assets in particular, clear risk ownership from both business and IT functional areas is crucial. Failing to clearly assign owners of risks will result in inadequate risk mitigation funding and prioritization which can lead to serious operational, financial and reputation damages if /when these risks materialize.

A further perspective to add is the value of involving diverse viewpoints in evaluating your options. Bringing together a team with varied backgrounds, experiences, and expertise can lead to more innovative and well-rounded solutions. Diversity encourages a broader range of ideas and can help identify potential pitfalls and opportunities that might not be apparent from a single perspective. Engaging in open dialogue and fostering an inclusive decision-making process can enhance creativity and ensure that the chosen path aligns well with a wide array of goals and values. This collaborative approach not only enriches the evaluation process but also builds buy-in and commitment to the chosen course of action.

Com uma boa base e pessoas corretas ao seu lado, é mais produtivo ao líder mapear os caminhos possíveis, que op??es temos a disposi??o! Desenhar cenários de a??es com resultados previsíveis possibilita calcular o apetite ao risco, bem como possíveis corre??es ou adapta??o.

Una vez que tenemos la información clara, hay que procurar tener reuniones constantes en equipo para establecer objetivos y pasos a seguir en esta posible eventualidad. Tal vez incluso incorporaron comité de crisis, eso lo he aprendido mucho de algunos socios que cuando sean han presentado eventos muy importantes, se instaura un equipo constante que está dedicado a solventar dicho contingente. Este equipo temporal se disuelve una vez que haya pasado el riesgo

Moreover, it’s crucial to select options that are not only relevant and applicable but also backed by substantial evidence of their assurance and effectiveness in mitigating high-level risks. Engaging subject matter experts (SMEs) and seasoned risk managers in the decision-making process can provide invaluable insights. These professionals bring a wealth of experience and can offer perspectives that might otherwise be overlooked.

With a clear understanding of the risks and options, plan strategically by prioritizing actions based on acceptable risks and desirable benefits. Develop a roadmap for your decision, including contingency plans for potential obstacles. While strategic planning doesn’t guarantee success, it equips you to navigate uncertainty with greater confidence and agility.

A collaborative effort in identifying risks is also essential. This can be achieved through workshops, risk assessments, and hazard identification processes that involve individuals from various levels of experience and backgrounds. Such inclusive engagement ensures a comprehensive coverage of potential risks, drawing from a diverse pool of knowledge and expertise. In summary, effective navigation through uncertainty in decision-making involves a careful balance between understanding the organization’s risk profile and leveraging expert advice, all while fostering a culture of collective risk awareness and management

Formulate a strategic plan based on your understanding of risks and available options: 1.Prioritize Actions: Focus on actions that balance acceptable risks with desirable benefits. 2.Create a Detailed Roadmap: Develop a clear, step-by-step plan to implement your decision. 3.Prepare Contingency Plans: Anticipate potential obstacles and devise backup strategies. Strategic planning does not eliminate risk but equips you with the agility and preparedness to navigate uncertainties effectively.

There are a number of challenges creating a with Risk Management strategy. First, how do you correctly categorize impact levels, are they completely objective or is it subjective which is added to the list. A high impact risk compared to a low impact risk, is terrorist attack a low ‘impact’ risk compared to traffic accidents, or highly frequent, low impact events and rare, high-impact events. There are many standards and methods for IS Security Risk Management (ISSRM), for security professionals to adopt, most of these are guidelines and/or frameworks. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) have a Risk Management Framework. The International Standards Organisation ( have their RM framework, the ISO framework is ISO 31000.

O planejamento é fundamental para o sucesso, priorizar a??es e as pessoas que ir?o executar s?o fundamentais… pessoas certas para as a??es corretas e tempestivas. Avaliar imediatamente os resultados se est?o adequados e ajustar a estratégia.

My experience suggests always striving to make data-based decisions. Relying solely on gut feeling or experience can allow biases, such as confirmation bias, to influence your choices. In contrast, data-driven decisions are more informed. Utilizing statistics and probability helps quantify the risks involved, providing a clear decision point. Presenting this quantified risk to key stakeholders allows for a more informed and collaborative decision-making process.

A convic??o do processo decisório, estratégica adotada transmite confian?a e seguran?a a organiza??o e equipe. As a??es e resultados se tornam eficientes e eficazes, com resultados sustentáveis.

Armed with a plan, execute your decision decisively. Uncertainty can cause hesitation, but after thorough due diligence, move forward with conviction. This isn’t about recklessness; it’s about trusting your process and taking action. Remember, not making a decision is a decision itself and carries its own risks.

With a strategic plan in place, take decisive action: 1.Trust Your Preparation: Have confidence in the thoroughness of your planning process. 2.Act with Conviction: Move forward resolutely, avoiding hesitation. 3.Understand the Risks of Inaction: Recognize that not making a decision can be riskier than taking calculated action. Executing decisively means committing to your chosen path while being prepared to adapt as necessary.

Ya con ideas claras, información recopilada y con las funciones asignadas al equipo, se pueden tomar decisiones de ejecución. Ya sea negociaciones con Clientes, protocolos de contingencia en caso de eventualidades materiales, climáticas, financieras, etc.

When faced with high-risk decisions, navigate through uncertainty effectively by: 1. Clarifying objectives: Define what needs to be achieved. 2. Assessing risks: Identify potential risks and their impact. 3. Gathering information: Collect relevant data and expert insights. 4. Weighing options: Evaluate potential solutions and their consequences. 5. Considering diverse perspectives: Seek input from diverse stakeholders. Additionally, consider: - Using decision-making frameworks and tools - Seeking guidance from experts or mentors - Practicing mindfulness and managing biases - Embracing a growth mindset and being open to learning - Fostering a culture of psychological safety and experimentation

Muy importante reflexionar sobre el trabajo realizado para enfrentar un determinado riesgo. Ya sea que se haya conseguido una resultado positivo o negativo, toda la experiencia adquirida sirve para enriquecer al equipo de trabajo y también sin duda a la persona. Tengo un próximo caso, la tarea siempre va a ser más sencilla de llevar y todos podrán fluir de una mejor forma con el proceso.

After making a high-risk decision, regularly reflect on the outcome. Whether the result is positive or negative, there are valuable lessons to learn. This reflection isn’t about dwelling on what went right or wrong, but about improving your decision-making process for the future. Continuous learning is essential for effectively navigating uncertainty

Si no tomas decisiones, desde luego no te equivocarás nunca, aunque tú vida o lo que sea que esté en juego estará en las manos de otros. Para tomar las riendas de tu vida, toca tomar acción, toma decidir: 1 Recopila información 2 Evalúa distintas opciones y puntos de vista 3 Comparte con tu equipo o con otras personas lo que piensas 4 Pide ayuda o consejos, no tenemos que saberlo todo 5 Pon todo encima de la mesa y lista pros o contras de cada opción 6 Escoge y decide 7 Por último, revisa los resultados de tu decisión y opciones de mejora para futuras decisiones. No dejes que pase mucho tiempo, mejor hecho que perfecto ?? Gestiona tus emociones - Lidera tu vida ?

In Zeiten zunehmender Unsicherheiten sowie geringeren Planungshorizonten sind kurzzyklische Reviews entscheidend. Gerne methodisch (z.B. OKR) unterstützt gilt es zu betrachten, ob man noch on Track ist oder korrigierend durch Ma?nahmenanpassung eingreifen und justieren muss.