What are some of the tools and techniques that you use to create and visualize your scenarios?
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The first step in scenario planning is to define your scope and question. This means clarifying what you want to explore, why, and for whom. Your scope should be broad enough to capture the uncertainties and complexities of the future, but narrow enough to be manageable and relevant. Your question should be open-ended, provocative, and meaningful. For example, you could ask: How will the future of work change in the next decade? What are the implications for our organization and industry?
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It is important to remember that scenario planning is not purely about answering a question; it's a method for making sure you answer questions in a way that is good for making predictions about the future. This means that you should ensure your question is phrased in a way where it is reasonable to structure the answer in different scenarios to get the benefit of different scenarios further on in your process.
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With that, each scenario should contain enough detail to assess the likelihood of success or failure of different strategic options. Some questions that you might apply today in order to fully sketch out a scenario might include: - Will product demand diminish, if government stimulus packages fails? - Will key suppliers remain in business, if economy tanks? - Have we the bench strength to overcome the loss of key personnel? Also, scenarios require context and that context should be captured as key dimensions of the scenario. For example, understanding of raw material availability and knowledge of supplier dependencies on these materials might be part of the context (key dimensions of) a “Suppliers Go Out Of Business” scenario.
The next step is to identify the key drivers and uncertainties that will shape the future. Drivers are the factors that influence the direction and pace of change, such as trends, events, forces, or actors. Uncertainties are the aspects of the future that are unknown or unpredictable, such as surprises, disruptions, or dilemmas. You can use various sources and methods to gather and analyze information, such as research, interviews, surveys, brainstorming, or horizon scanning. You can also use tools like STEEP (social, technological, economic, environmental, and political) or PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental) to categorize and organize your drivers and uncertainties.
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1) Read master plans, white papers, and reports published by local and foreign governments. Take what is relevant to our context/organisation, and keep in view some of the minor trends that may have indirect or longer-term future impacts. 2) Read what futurists, top voices, and subject matter experts share on LinkedIn newsfeed. Their diverse perspectives give insights on the upcoming generational and cultural environment, as well as an idea of the work trends in the next decade or so. 3) Read online articles and publications about upcoming trends for the next 1-10 years to identify the driving forces. There may also be some weak signals mentioned by futurists/organisations that are relevant only to a small group of people/industry.
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The Future Today Institute and other organisations that work with strategic foresight have good free resources to use for your scenario planning processes. Start there and learn to develop a process that suits the specific area you are working in.
The third step is to generate and select your scenarios. Scenarios are plausible and coherent stories that describe how the future could unfold, based on different combinations of drivers and uncertainties. You can use various techniques to create your scenarios, such as morphological analysis, cross-impact analysis, or scenario matrix. You can also use tools like scenario archetypes, which are generic patterns or themes that can help you structure your scenarios, such as growth, collapse, transformation, or discipline. You should aim to create at least three or four scenarios that cover a range of possibilities and perspectives. You should also select the scenarios that are most relevant, challenging, and diverse for your scope and question.
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Scenarios should be different enough to help inform your strategic decisions. The point is not to find what you find is most common, but to identify what will be different when circumstances change. It is easy to fall into a wish to only work with what you belive is the most common future, but that is not what scenario planning is about.
The fourth step is to develop and refine your scenarios. This means adding more details, depth, and richness to your scenarios, such as timelines, events, actors, actions, outcomes, and implications. You can use various techniques to develop and refine your scenarios, such as backcasting, which is working backwards from a desired or undesired future to identify the steps and conditions that led to it, or narrative writing, which is crafting a compelling and engaging story that captures the essence and logic of your scenario. You can also use tools like scenario cards, which are visual aids that summarize the key elements and features of your scenario, such as images, headlines, quotes, or data.
The final step is to visualize and communicate your scenarios. This means presenting and sharing your scenarios in a way that is clear, attractive, and impactful. You can use various formats and media to visualize and communicate your scenarios, such as reports, presentations, posters, videos, podcasts, or games. You can also use tools like scenario maps, which are graphical representations that show the relationships and dynamics between your scenarios and their drivers and uncertainties, or scenario personas, which are fictional characters that embody the characteristics and experiences of your target audience or stakeholder group in each scenario.
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Remember to update your scenarios over time when things change. Like with all strategic work you need to continuously adapt and adjust as things develop.
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