What mistakes can you avoid when using resource forecasting for operational planning?

2 potential traps experienced in reality, as mentioned in the PMBOK… 1. Not identifying the most critical human resource(s). Loss of the most critical resource could mean project failure. 2. Overly optimistic on what people could accomplish vice planning for what reasonably could be accomplished with nominal experience and staff at 75-80% capacity. Don’t fall into the traps because you have your ideal set of go getters assigned to you RIGHT NOW!!

Truly agreed but yeah historical data will be helpful in cases where situations remain static and will be a valuable indicator for decision making. If situations are dynamic we can take into account the possible future scenarios considering the uncertainties.

Relying solely on historical data for resource forecasting is a common mistake in operational planning. To avoid this, supplement historical data with current and future trends, changes, and uncertainties. Incorporate market research, customer feedback, competitor analysis, and scenario planning. By considering a broader range of inputs, you can make more accurate predictions and adapt resource planning to changing conditions. This proactive approach ensures informed decision-making and optimal operational efficiency.

While historical data are often referred to as baseline, data quality, completeness, reliability and the collection method are equally important. The saying "garbage in - garbage out" is true respectively. In addition, data without a thorough understanding of the context and dynamics might be misleading. So, consciously modelling paired with operational research provide real-time evidence-based feedback.

In resource forecasting for operational planning, avoiding pitfalls is vital. Neglecting historical data insights and underestimating external factors can lead to shortages. Collaborate across departments to ensure accurate assessments, stay updated on technology, and avoid rigid planning. Establish feedback loops, balance short-term and long-term data, and regularly reassess forecasts for optimal efficiency.

Uncertainty is like Costco produce, it does not age well. You will rarely ever know anything with 100% surety. Part of my risk management plan is agreed upon confidence intervals. Highly confident could mean 95% to one person but >75% to another, having a common operating definition of confidence will expedite team communication and provide ease to the ultimate decision maker.

Especially true when dealing with human resources (staff). Planning for leave, training and other absences is a necessary element.

It's essential to adopt a more holistic and adaptive approach to resource forecasting for operational planning. This includes regularly reviewing and updating forecasts, considering various scenarios, involving stakeholders, and staying vigilant about changes in the business environment. Things to consider are: Overly Optimistic Assumptions Weather and Seasonal Considerations Underestimated Risks Planning that lacks flexibility Inadequate Communications (between teams and parties)

Stakeholders management is a skillset that is often underestimated and undervalued. For one that used to be in operations and had the "liberty" to make tactical decisions, driven and measured by results, and only had to engage with stakeholders once those results are achieved/not-achieved, proactively engaging with stakeholders during production planning is an ongoing learning experience. To make it as first-nature and a habit has taken me longer than I expected. I am lucky to have a leader that doesn't get frustrated when I mismanaged certain stakeholders and keep encouraging to do better.

Almost always , the communication when using resource forecasting for operational planning is to focus on WIIFM -What's in it for me ? However, it can completely change the dynamics with your stakeholders if you start communicating with a mindset of WIIFT -What's in it for Them - this way the communication will reduce the conflicts and misunderstandings and on the contrary build more trust and foster better Stakeholder relationships as your focus is now on the team members, managers, customers, suppliers, and partners as your stakeholders . Try it out and you can thank me later.

Failing to communicate and collaborate with stakeholders is a common mistake in resource forecasting for operational planning. This oversight can lead to inaccurate forecasts and conflicts. To avoid this, maintain regular and effective communication with stakeholders using tools like dashboards, reports, meetings, and surveys. Engage stakeholders, seek their input, and address their concerns. This collaborative approach enhances accuracy, minimizes misunderstandings, and promotes a harmonious working environment.

Getting firm commitments from the stakeholders for their physical support, while not always essential, will tend to shorten the project and help eliminate conflicting activities.

You must utilise those around you to help plan, but also working with stakeholders to ensure the plans and forecasts meet their needs (which can change through the planning process). Obtaining feedback through the process, being clear with your team on the expected outcomes and tasks to be completed can avoid miscommunication issues down the line

Not updating and revising in planning is a project killer. Using antiquated data will have teams going after goals and milestone that are not inline with the scope requirements, irrelevant to the project, or no longer needed. As the environment changes decisions will need to be made to make adjustments, validate the risks registers, and ensure the team is still within its operational limits.

No plan survives first contact with the enemy - no matter the "enemy". Always have a backup idea, and revisit your plans as things start to develop.

Understanding the capabilities of your team and organization is critical to operational planning. I have found that leaders who are not intimately aware with their team's level of knowledge and training are apt to initial failure at the start of a project. Furthermore, failing to realize what is required from external stakeholders is just as dangerous to operational failure. Take the time to know your team and their capabilities, identifying gaps in knowledge and training as well as weakness among individuals. Ensure that external resources are adequately communicated and planned to enable operational and project success. As leaders, we must engage both internally and externally and develop running estimates of total capabilities.

In my experience the biggest pitfall in operational planning and forecasting is not listening to your team. You should also consider expanding your quest for information by consulting all external partners for their opinions . No matter how effective we maybe as professional planners prior consultation is a must .

Like the others - getting feedback and using the team you have around you is one of the biggest strengths you can apply when planning. This helps you avoid/limit the impact of your personal bias that can create issues with your plan.