What is the impact of data quality on climate change predictions?

What is important to understand is that models are wrong with the errors now growing fast as we do not have the computational power to simulate the Earth system over small scales modelling daily extreme configurations as "weather" constitutes the climate system not by multi-year means but via the daily evolving pattern effect of neighboring gradients in space and time which are behind the non-linear increase in extreme events. This being said, you will have to extrapolate the increases that happened the last years - maybe zonal means divided into sections of longitude make sense. A analysis of the mechanics and teleconnections that influence regional extreme events could lead to more specific forecasts on the rate of non-linear increase,

Its not all about data - that's the first step. As models won't be able to do the job anymore you need to make analysis of the mechanics that drive regional extreme events so you get an understanding in how far the recent trends in a given region are natural variability or forced natural variability. Important here: via a mechanistic assessment of the local to distant drivers you get an understanding in how far these drivers will persist/reoccur/intensify thereby you get an better idea of the speed of the increase of certain types of extreme events you will be confronted with.

Now we are talking, as this is the main problem as realistic risk assessments of climate warming will all show the same end result: collapse of our globalized society if we do not act fast. One assessment faster than the other but in the end the same. But such a message can't be sold in our system, so nobody wants to hear it or can hear it, as our current order depends on a positive picture of our future. In short the new climate reality can't be sold so nobody can face it. Our self-referential system has to sell the myth of adaptation via its human resource agents of functions. The new emerging climate reality is a bad ass non-seller!

Climate science is now starting all over the place to admit that we underestimated climate change dramatically - our error is exponential as we have now entered deeply into the non-linear range of climate warming. We are now at cross roads. 1: We admit openly that we have seriously underestimated climate warming and that we won't be able to adapt and have to act fast with all we've got. But this would mean a structural reorganization of our economic system as the current one can't do the job. 2: Or we keep to deny it and give the public the impression that we can handle it, while we keep our economic system running. In the end the result will be the same for our self-referential system: it will crash - with humanity or without it...

Most important data is recent data from Earth system changes in all domains as it tells you the degree of the non-linear change the system is undergoing. You need real time data on as many subsystems of Earth as possible to understand the non-linearity of the system swings as all these changes constitute mutually the dynamic Earth system state which tells you how fast things will evolve. In short: as the dynamic parts of the Earth system change increasingly in a jump wise fashion so the whole system will do. This is what we saw from 2012-2016 and in 2023/24 as it had been clear that this temp. jump was coming with the next one even greater still as more and more systems contribute to them.