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What factors should you consider when forecasting demand?

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Demand forecasting and planning is a vital process for any plant engineering project, as it helps to optimize resources, reduce costs, and meet customer expectations. However, forecasting demand is not a simple task, as it involves many factors and uncertainties that can affect the accuracy and reliability of the predictions. In this article, we will discuss some of the key factors that you should consider when forecasting demand for your plant engineering project, and how to apply some best practices and tools to improve your results.

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Baljit Singh

Site Head - Associate Director Operations at Flipkart India.
Basma Sadek

Member at Large at YEA ASHRAE Society
Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo

1 Historical data

One of the most important sources of information for demand forecasting is historical data, which can provide insights into past patterns, trends, and variations of demand for your products or services. Historical data can help you to identify seasonal, cyclical, and random fluctuations, as well as the effects of external events, such as promotions, competitors, or market changes. However, historical data is not enough to forecast future demand, as it may not reflect the current or expected conditions, preferences, or behaviors of your customers. Therefore, you should always complement historical data with other factors, such as market research, customer feedback, and expert opinions.

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Basma Sadek

Member at Large at YEA ASHRAE Society
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We should make a historical study for the last 2 years/quarter/months while also checking if there were any unexpected events that may affect the outcome.

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Thomas San Roman

Commercial Building Automation and Mechanical Sales
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The hope is that you have a good software system for inventory with a decent algorithm that factors in exceptional items. That and experienced personnel with a knack for knowing what is needed.

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Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo
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Importante acompanhar o histórico em períodos menores, como quarters, para avaliar sinais de tendência de alta ou queda em determinadas categorias ou projetos e entender o porquê ocorreram. Também é importante avaliar se dentro do histórico existiam processos claros, ou se algo no processo sofreu mudan?as radicais ou implementa??o de novos processos, que podem ser mais ou menos eficaz e gerar uma distor??o na vis?o. O uso de tecnologias para acompanhamento de dados é super importante para complementar o acompanhamento, junto com thick data para avaliar se dentro da organiza??o houveram impactos relevantes na gest?o de pessoas.

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Karim Aly Ahmed

Business Development at MSI - Micro-Star International Co., Ltd.
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from my point of view : 1- need to track the history of the last 2/3 quarters for sell-in and sell-out to define which top-rated items and how many loyal customers for the product. 2- Forecast and define which peak time for sales growth and customize ETA at the same time to ensure goal achievement. 3-comparison apple to apple as product comparison with competitors to help you pick the best product features that make product postition more greater

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Adriaan Jacobs

Mechanical Designer @ GDC | Aurecon | 3D modeling, Mechanical design | BIM Enthusiast ISO 19650
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Well first of all making sure that you have good technical resources - be sure that your time-line has downtime considered as resources face unexpected challenges that will hinder your forecast.

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2 Market conditions

Another factor that you should consider when forecasting demand is the market conditions, which can influence the demand for your products or services in various ways. Market conditions include factors such as the size, growth, and segmentation of your target market, the level of competition, the availability and price of substitutes or complements, the regulatory and legal environment, and the macroeconomic and social trends. Market conditions can affect both the potential and the actual demand for your products or services, depending on how sensitive your customers are to these factors. Therefore, you should monitor and analyze the market conditions regularly, and adjust your demand forecasts accordingly.

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Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo
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O uso de ferramentas de bi é fundamental na análise de fatores externos para obter um comparativo real de período contra período. O detalhamento dos processos e cjmprimento de regras de compliance interno, também s?o fundamentais para se avaliar altera??es relevantes em motivos de perda de negócio - se associados a fatores operacionais ou de mercado, assim como avaliar dados de evolu??o e retra??o por regi?o se existem alguma correla??o estatistica com os movimentos de mercado e da compania.

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3 Customer behavior

A third factor that you should consider when forecasting demand is the customer behavior, which can determine the level and timing of demand for your products or services. Customer behavior includes factors such as the needs, preferences, expectations, and satisfaction of your customers, as well as their purchasing habits, loyalty, and responsiveness to your marketing efforts. Customer behavior can vary depending on the type, quality, and value of your products or services, as well as the characteristics and segments of your customers. Therefore, you should understand and anticipate the customer behavior, and use techniques such as surveys, interviews, focus groups, or analytics to gather and interpret customer data.

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Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo
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A forma de coletar mudan?as de comportamento pode ser diferente de acordo com o modelo de negócio, tanto B2C quanto B2B, B2B2C, dentre outros. A pesquisa de mercado é importante, mas mais do que isso é a pesquisa com os atuais clientes e consumidores, focado e direcionado no público específico que já compra ou s?o clientes há um bom período.

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4 Project scope

A fourth factor that you should consider when forecasting demand is the project scope, which can define the specifications, objectives, and deliverables of your plant engineering project. Project scope can affect the demand for your products or services in terms of the quantity, quality, variety, and customization that you can offer to your customers. Project scope can also affect the cost, time, and risk of your project, which can influence your profitability and competitiveness. Therefore, you should clarify and communicate the project scope with your stakeholders, and align it with the demand forecasts and the available resources.

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5 Forecasting methods

A fifth factor that you should consider when forecasting demand is the forecasting methods, which can determine the accuracy and reliability of your demand predictions. Forecasting methods can be classified into two main categories: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative methods rely on subjective judgments, opinions, and intuition, and are useful when there is little or no historical data, or when the demand is influenced by non-measurable factors. Quantitative methods rely on mathematical models, statistical techniques, and numerical data, and are useful when there is sufficient and reliable historical data, or when the demand follows a predictable pattern. Therefore, you should choose the appropriate forecasting method for your situation, and evaluate its performance and limitations.

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Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo
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Uma maneira de minimizar os erros em métodos qualitativos é criar regras e gatilhos claros para se definir um provisionamento, baseado nos principais motivos de perda ou erro do passado. Dessa forma, podem ser estruturados critérios mínimos de confirma??o para poder fazer promessas de entrega, podendo ser corrijido ou alterado de acorso com os critérios de maior assertividade

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6 Forecasting errors

A sixth factor that you should consider when forecasting demand is the forecasting errors, which can measure the difference between the actual and the predicted demand. Forecasting errors can occur due to various reasons, such as inaccurate or incomplete data, inappropriate or outdated methods, unforeseen events, or human bias. Forecasting errors can have negative consequences for your plant engineering project, such as overproduction or underproduction, excess inventory or stockouts, wasted resources or missed opportunities, and customer dissatisfaction or loss of reputation. Therefore, you should monitor and analyze the forecasting errors, and use techniques such as error measurement, error reduction, and error correction to improve your forecasting accuracy and reliability.

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Ricardo Okino

Empreendedor Escola Exchange | Construo e Escalo Opera??es de Vendas B2B | Autor Best Seller | Conselho Consultivo
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O uso de software e tecnologia é fundamental para se calcular capacidade de trabalho e entregas em todos os setores produtivos. Tudo que n?o é medido n?o é gerenciado e por conta disso, principalmente os indicadores de trabalho, podem interferir em erros de previs?o

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Baljit Singh

Site Head - Associate Director Operations at Flipkart India.
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One of the important factor is market segment selection. If you see a good growth in this segment then you can probably get a better understanding of how much to plan otherwise it will sit in your yard excess inventory. Though You can also induce some demand at later stage.

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Zaenuri Salim. MBA, CISCM

Having a proven track record of inventory reduction by Inventory Optimization and cataloguing standardization and increasing inventory accuracy up to 99%..
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Consider the festif season where the demand is always spike, such Christmas and new year eve or month of Ramadan for the muslim. Not only the quantity need be aware of but also the logistic side of it where during those season logistic is one of the issue.

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What factors should you consider when forecasting demand?

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1 Historical data

2 Market conditions

3 Customer behavior

4 Project scope

5 Forecasting methods

6 Forecasting errors

7 Here’s what else to consider

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