What do you do if your decisions as a project manager have unpredictable outcomes?

All decisions have the potential for uncertainty; it's part of the joy of project/programme management - there is always change/uncertainty/unknown content. The basis of decisions is pivotal to managing these dynamics. Therefore transparency is critical. If it's possible, provide fact based evidence to support recommended decisions. Seek guidance and feedback from others with experience and insights. If the decision is not entirely fact based - say so! In order to work professionally and ethically, clarity on the key influencing factors is essential. Like a change request, a decision is based upon the context, rationale, influencing factors, benefit analysis and of course risk assessment.

Change is the only constant, and we have to understand that we can not control 100% of the outcome of a project. If your project has ab uncertain outcome, you have to project confidence in yourself so that others can take a cue from that and not fall apart. As a Project Manager, you should have a can do attitude, be resilient and flexible to adapt with whatever curve you hit in a project. Don't buckle under the pressure of uncertainty, rather stay steadfast, acknowledge the uncertainty, and begin to decipher how to navigate it.

In my experience, being comfortable with being uncomfortable is the best way to embrace uncertainty. No matter how much planning goes into a project, when it comes to the execution phase, things will happen. You will rarely have a project that goes 100% according to plan. When those bumps in the road happen, you have to think clearly and use as many data points as possible in the present moment to make the best decision moving forward.

Generative AI can play a transformative role by enabling managers to navigate this uncertainty more effectively. Through predictive analytics and scenario planning, AI tools can model various outcomes based on different decision paths, providing valuable insights even when complete data isn't available. This capability allows project managers to anticipate potential challenges and develop contingency plans, making it easier to adapt strategies on the fly and maintain resilience against unexpected changes. By leveraging generative AI, project managers can turn uncertainty from a liability into an asset, fostering innovation and ensuring more robust project outcomes.

As a project manager, facing unpredictable outcomes is part of the job. When results don't align with expectations, I take a structured approach: 1) Analyze the divergence from the plan. 2) Gather feedback from the team and stakeholders. 3) Adjust strategies with an emphasis on flexibility and resilience. By embracing uncertainty and learning from each experience, we can refine our processes and improve future project outcomes.

It’s beneficial to reflect on your decision-making process. This involves assessing the information you had at the time and evaluating whether your decisions were based on sound reasoning. Such reflection is crucial, especially as the transition from narrow AI to generative AI reshapes our approach to problem-solving. While narrow AI focused on specific tasks, generative AI, serving as a more dynamic interface, provides a broader range of capabilities, from generating content to simulating complex scenarios. This shift enhances our decision-making tools, offering a more integrated and interactive experience that can adapt to complex variables and deliver comprehensive insights, making it indispensable for navigating uncertainty effectively.

Collaboration and transparency is key to facilitate decision making by Executives and Project Leaders and then share those decisions across all stakeholder levels to ensure understanding and correct expectations. I facilitate a thorough vetting of risks and issues and surface all the expertise that stakeholders provide. I help the team focus on facts and probabilities of outcomes. By the time the vetting is complete, the team is satisfied with what is thought to be know and what risks remain - known or unknown. I don't make decisions single handedly. The best decisions are made in the context of having built trusted relationships with stakeholders. I am always working on behalf of the stakeholders; servant leadership.

When unexpected results arise in project management, the first step is to thoroughly analyze the decisions made. I review the rationale behind each decision, assess the data used, and consider alternative scenarios. This critical examination helps identify gaps in judgment or information, enabling more informed decision-making in the future. Continuous learning and adaptation are key to navigating the complexities of project management.

Pilot or test phase often allows to learn more and narrow the uncertainty before committing substantial funding. New information, specifically generated for your project' uncertainty, is a good way to aid the situation.

Absolutely, open communication is key to navigating the unpredictable elements of project management. Transparency not only builds trust but also empowers team members to contribute actively to problem-solving. Encouraging an environment where everyone feels comfortable sharing their insights and suggestions enhances collaboration and leads to more robust solutions in the face of uncertainty.

In project management, unexpected outcomes necessitate open communication. When things don't go as planned, I prioritize transparent dialogue with my team and stakeholders. This involves sharing insights about what worked and what didn't, discussing the impact of our decisions, and exploring corrective measures together. Open communication builds trust, fosters collaboration, and ensures everyone is aligned as we adjust our course.

In the face of uncertain outcomes, open and clear communication is essential. You need to be communicate with your team, let every stakeholder know of the scenario you are in and encourage them to share suggestions to navigate that curve and/or fears that they might have. Don't hide anything from your team because you never know where you could find the answer to solve the riddle of uncertainty. Promote a learning session, share and tell, and whatever engagement session that would allow team members to brainstorm and develop possible solutions to the challenge. Sincere and open communication is the goal to achieving this.

My experience managing projects makes me believe this is one of the most crucial steps - communication. It is ok to face uncertainty, but if not communicating this, uncertainty will not be the only issue. Set clear expectations with the Stakeholders and this will improve everyone’s experience. Focus on the happiness equation: happiness = provided experiences - expectation. If you can’t increase your experiences, manage your expectations.

There is no point is hiding the uncertainty. Last thing your Mgmt, stakeholders, and particularly Finance will appreciate is a sudden surprise. Don't be afraid to appear weak or inexperienced; on the opposite, managing the uncertainty and mitigating risks in collaborative way is what you are there for.

Pivoting is essential in project management, especially when outcomes deviate from initial expectations. It requires a flexible approach to decision-making, allowing for reallocation of resources, adjustment of timelines, or even a complete reevaluation of project goals. This adaptability ensures that project managers can respond effectively to new information or unexpected challenges, maintaining the project's momentum and steering it towards success.

Continuously monitor the outcomes of your decisions and be prepared to adapt your approach if necessary. Stay flexible and responsive to changes in the project environment to minimize the impact of unpredictable outcomes.

flexibility is indeed a cornerstone in project management. Being adaptable allows for more agile responses to challenges, fostering a proactive rather than reactive environment. It not only showcases resilience but also creates opportunities to innovate and optimize project outcomes.

Addressing immediate critical issues is indeed important to mitigate any negative impacts on the project. Afterward, implementing proactive preventive actions can help minimize the occurrence of similar issues in the future, thus increasing the predictability of outcomes. Additionally, it's valuable to conduct thorough risk assessments, gather feedback from team members, and continuously adapt strategies to maintain control over the project's trajectory. Flexibility and agility are key in navigating unpredictable situations effectively. Effective communication is paramount for adjusting project plans and ensuring continued trust and support from stakeholders.

There is always something that unexpectedly changes in every project, when it comes to execution. It is well known that theory, doesn't exactly match the practice- when it comes to "day to day" work. As a project manager, you need to be flexible, calm, and quickly adapt to change. This demands great leadership, always play it "cool" in front of the Team. You also need to be able to persuade agile strategies. All this could be really stressing, no doubt, but it builds great character and future outcomes.

There will alway be some level of uncertainty in the results. However, if the variables you are "controlling" have no effect on the outcome, maybe you should try asking the following questions: - Are the chosen outcome KPIs correct? Maybe the effect you want cannot be described only by the KPIs you chose initially. Those can also change due to better understanding of the problem. - Are the actions (or variables) I'm taking (or modifying) really the ones that have an effect in the result? Maybe you are pushing buttons that have nothing to do with the change you want to promote - Is the result actually a controllable one? In this case the only way to act is risk management. Insure yourself out of the negative effects.

Today there are some many uncertainty, in some recent years, the world has faced so many wars, a pandemic, and a incredible growing of AI. We only can be prepared, and take good decisions based on that information that we have, and learning from mistakes about of all this outside events. Always working like a team, and being positive, with a growth and learning mindset. Now talking about our decisions on a project, we should consider all the scenarios, with the optimistic, real, and bad cases. If someone goes bad, we have to adjust it, tracking all results, and if something going's well we have to replicate it and convert it in a good practice.

Project Risk Management could be most daunting part of managing your project... If you face too much uncertainty. Start working on risks early, make plans to perform small tests and pilots, and narrow down to manageable risks with feasible mitigation actions. Wide team feedback is very helpful here, you don't know what you don't know - but someone from your Project network might.

Similar ro identifying the risks, try to find identify as many proposed mitigation as possible and put them in order based on the feasibility, cost and the potential success. As if you are managing risks for the risk mitigation. Try to ask “what if?” Multiple times and generate scenarios. Don’t do this on your own. Do it with the team, ask open questions trigger their thoughts to bring more ideas. And in the end, try to put the mitigations which act early on the risks to have time for alternative solutions in case of failure.

Have a risk management plan, adapt continuously and make changes then communicate openly to all stakeholders of the new plans.

Actually I disagree with the PMBOC in that they have risk assessment much later in the process. I like it up front so it is evaluated in every phase particularly before everyone buys off on the project. So if they buy off on the project they buy off on all the risk too- up front??Constantly reevaluate if the risk has changed with each phase. Because it does sometimes. Keep risk reeval at least as a monthly check in with each group depending on length of the project.

It's common for unpredictable outcomes to arise when making decisions as a project manager. In sociology, these are referred to as latent outcomes, which are the hidden or unintended consequences of social processes or actions. While it’s beneficial when a project achieves its intended outcomes, latent outcomes can also have profound impacts. For example, if a project manager introduces regular team check-ins to improve project efficiency, a latent outcome might be that team members develop stronger relationships and trust, which benefits the team in the long run. Thus, your decision may achieve more impact than you initially anticipated.

Don’t hesitate to seek support or guidance from mentors, colleagues, or industry experts if you’re struggling to make effective decisions. Sometimes an outside perspective can offer valuable insights and help you course-correct.

One aspect which is not covered here but I have found extremely effective in dealing with uncertainty is pre-planning. Right from my Marico days where this aspect was called ' Contingency Planning', I have used this approach. In any project/ business scenario, if you can list down scenarios A,B and C ( with implications), you will end up covering 95% potential deviations. If you have done this pre-work, then you are in effect just dealing with a less probable scenario than a completely new one.