What are the best practices for creating and presenting scenarios that are credible, relevant, and engaging?

Before creating scenarios, it's crucial to have a clear purpose. Define the focus, whether it's an industry, market segment, or competitive position, and set clear objectives to identify disruptions, explore opportunities, or test current strategies. For example, a technology company might develop scenarios to explore the future of artificial intelligence, with the objective of identifying potential investment areas and emerging competitive threats.

You also need a solid well researched foundation upon which to build your scenario. The better you understand the current landscape, the more relevant a projected scenario will be.

You must "know your enemy" as Sun Zhu said. A scenario is only helpful if the CI research is done first. You have to understand your competition and know their capabilities and their ambitions in order to effectively play out different potential scenarios

Credibility depends on a rigorous methodology, built on reliable data and transparency. Ensure a data-driven approach with evidence from reputable sources, document assumptions and methods clearly, and involve diverse perspectives for a comprehensive analysis.

To inspire action, scenarios should include a narrative that resonates. Use vivid storytelling to create engaging narratives, focus on the human impact by exploring how scenarios affect people, and develop distinct, contrasting futures for diverse perspectives.

Enhance engagement and understanding by using visuals and interactive elements. Utilize data visualization through charts and infographics, incorporate multimedia like videos and animations, and conduct scenario-based workshops for interactive learning and idea generation.

For a powerful impact, tailor your presentation to the audience, practice for smooth delivery, and encourage interaction to boost engagement and understanding.

Scenarios don't "help to achieve your goals." That's the job of CI and competitive strategy. Scenarios help you anticipate changes that can materially affect your market, business, competitors, customers, and suppliers. I recommend an in-person, virtual, or even anonymous session in which individuals or pairs start off by thinking "what if". Then, go around the room, asking every individual or pair to contribute. Keep going until ideas are exhausted... then ask for more. Have the group rate the scenarios, 1-5 scale, in three columns: 1) size of impact, 2) likelihood, and 3) UNpreparedness. Any scenario rated 4 or 5 in those columns deserves attention. The conversation MUST be safe and open. You help your company with your honesty.

Case study: The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report exemplifies scenario planning by identifying key global risks such as climate change and cyberattacks and exploring their interconnected impacts. Utilizing data visualization and expert insights, the report engages stakeholders to raise awareness of critical challenges. Effective scenario creation involves rigorous methodology, storytelling, and communication, turning predictions into strategic tools for decision-making and learning.