How do you use scenarios to test your CI assumptions?

1 What are scenarios and why use them?

Scenarios are plausible stories about the future that describe how different factors and events may affect your industry, competitors, and customers. They are not predictions or forecasts, but rather tools to explore alternative outcomes and implications. By using scenarios, you can test your CI assumptions and challenge your existing mental models. Scenarios can help you identify new opportunities, threats, risks, and uncertainties that may affect your competitive position and performance.

2 How to create scenarios?

Creating scenarios involves various steps, such as defining the scope and purpose of your scenario analysis, identifying the main drivers and uncertainties that may shape the future of your industry, competitors, and customers, and selecting the most critical and uncertain drivers. With these, you can create a scenario matrix that plots two drivers on two axes and creates four quadrants. Each quadrant should have a narrative that describes its key characteristics, events, and implications. Additionally, you should name each scenario with something catchy and memorable that summarizes its main theme or message. Finally, it is important to validate and refine your scenarios for consistency, plausibility, and relevance.

3 How to test your CI assumptions with scenarios?

Once you have created your scenarios, you can use them to test your CI assumptions and challenge your biases. To do this, compare your scenarios with your current strategy and plans to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Additionally, identify indicators and signals that may indicate which scenario is unfolding or becoming more likely. A pre-mortem analysis can help uncover any hidden assumptions or biases that may have influenced the CI analysis. Furthermore, a what-if analysis can evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of possible actions and decisions in each scenario. All of these techniques can help generate new ideas and solutions for CI challenges or opportunities.

4 How to communicate and use your scenarios?

Scenarios are not only useful for testing CI assumptions and biases, but also for communicating and using CI insights and recommendations. To do this effectively, it is important to present scenarios in a clear and engaging way with visual aids, stories, anecdotes, examples, or quotes. Additionally, you should highlight the key messages and implications of your scenarios while involving stakeholders and audience in the scenario analysis. Furthermore, you need to update and revise your scenarios regularly to monitor external environment changes and new information. This will help ensure that actions and decisions are reviewed and evaluated based on the scenarios and their outcomes.