How do you use historical data to forecast inventory demand?

Consider using “Historical Data Archeology.” Dive deep into your past sales data like a detective, uncovering patterns by segmenting it into different periods or customer types. Create visual timelines and maps to spot hidden trends, like how weather or local events impacted demand. Integrate qualitative insights from team members who observed shifts in customer behavior. This holistic view, blending quantitative and qualitative data, helps forecast demand more accurately by revealing the underlying stories behind the numbers.

Customers feedback collected daily will give you an upper hand against any other company. Collect this information with the employees on the field. Nobody knows your client best than the employees interacting with the them. We are humans and we make decisions based on emotions, experiences and demands. No report can tell you what a client would like tomorrow unless you get out on the field.

I like to think of analyzing data as creating a dynamic art piece. I combine different data sources like puzzle pieces, using advanced visualization tools to reveal hidden patterns and relationships. I play with color-coding trends and layering data sets to highlight correlations and anomalies. By crafting interactive dashboards, I let the data tell a story, inviting others to explore and question the visuals. This approach turns raw numbers into a compelling narrative that not only forecasts demand but also engages the team in a shared discovery process.

Know the max capacity you can have in inventory and visualize how it will be presented. Always plan ahead, have plan A, plan B and plan C. Product can sell faster or slower and plan to move product consistently looking at your KPI's daily!

When choosing a forecasting method, think of it like selecting the right lens for a photo. Each method offers a unique perspective—moving averages for stability, exponential smoothing for trends, regression for relationships. I focus on what the data naturally reveals and choose a method that aligns with my goals and resources. It’s like finding the perfect tool for a project; sometimes a simple lens is enough, while other times you need something more specialized. Experiment and adapt, so your forecasting is as precise and insightful as possible.

We have been taught to forecast based on last year, last week, yesterday's date, and so on... but trends are changing rapidly and factors like the internet, social media and your friends also influence decision making. Outside of all the reports you use on a daily basis, focus on politics, travel and weather than can affect your forecast!

Think of testing your forecasting method like a dress rehearsal for a big performance. Use part of your historical data to fine-tune your model, and then run it through a real-world trial with another set. This way, you see how well it handles the unexpected—kind of like how a dress rehearsal reveals what works and what needs tweaking before the actual show. Check your results against actual demand and tweak as needed. It's all about ensuring your model performs well under real conditions, just like a performance needs to shine when the spotlight's on!

This is one of the most important parts. Here is were you adjust your metrics and partner with the suppliers and request more or less of what you need.

Imagine your forecasting model as a living entity—constantly evolving. After testing, treat your forecasts like a garden that needs regular weeding and nurturing. Monitor how well your predictions align with real outcomes, and adapt based on new insights or unexpected shifts. Think of it as a dynamic process where continuous fine-tuning helps you stay ahead. Embrace the changes, learn from them, and let your forecasts evolve to meet new challenges, just as a garden thrives with regular care and attention.

Pricing and Supplies go hand in hand. Check metrics daily and adjust your inventory based on performance. Try different strategies specially if your product is global. Control what is controllable.

Think of your forecasts as a collaborative story. When you share them, involve everyone—suppliers, team members, and customers—like co-authors. Clearly outline your narrative’s assumptions and plot twists. As you monitor the story’s progression, stay open to feedback and plot adjustments. This way, your forecasts become a dynamic dialogue rather than a static prediction, ensuring everyone’s insights help refine the story. By treating your forecasts as a living document, you foster collaboration and adaptability, creating a more resilient and responsive forecasting process.

Communication is key in any business but passion, discipline and knowledge for what you do will ultimately show how successful your product can be! Communicate your findings and back it up with facts and strategies. You can't get knowledge without experiences. Listen, understand and ask questions. Ultimately, be persuasive on your goals and plans. Lastly, positivism is most associated with success and happiness!

To truly leverage historical data, blend it with a touch of storytelling. Dive into past trends not just for numbers, but for the narratives they reveal about customer behaviors and market shifts. Look for patterns like seasonal enthusiasm or sudden spikes driven by trends. Then, imagine these patterns as characters in a story—each with motivations and quirks. This perspective helps you forecast more intuitively and creatively. By turning data into a dynamic narrative, you align your inventory strategy with real-world behaviors and anticipate demand shifts with a richer, more nuanced approach.