How do you update your scenarios?

2 Review your scenarios

Based on your signal monitoring, you should review your scenarios periodically and assess their validity, relevance, and plausibility. You should ask yourself questions like: Are your scenarios still covering the range of uncertainty and complexity you face? Are they still aligned with your strategic objectives and priorities? Are they still consistent and coherent? Are they still challenging and stimulating? You should also compare your scenarios with the current reality and see how they differ or converge.

3 Revise your scenarios

If your review reveals that your scenarios need to be updated, you should revise them accordingly. You can use different techniques to update your scenarios, depending on the extent and nature of the changes required. For example, you can use:

- Refining : This involves making minor adjustments to your scenarios, such as adding or removing details, clarifying or modifying assumptions, or updating data or facts.

- Reframing : This involves changing the perspective or focus of your scenarios, such as shifting the time horizon, the scope, the level of analysis, or the key drivers of change.

- Revisiting : This involves revising the core logic or structure of your scenarios, such as changing the scenario axes, the scenario archetypes, the scenario narratives, or the scenario implications.

5 Learn from your updates

Updating your scenarios is also an opportunity to learn from your experience and improve your scenario planning process. You should reflect on what worked well and what didn't, what you learned and what you missed, what you achieved and what you can do better. You should also document and share your lessons learned, and apply them to your future scenario planning activities.

Updating your scenarios is not a one-time task, but a continuous process. It requires curiosity, agility, and creativity. By following these tips, you can keep your scenarios fresh and relevant, and make them more effective for your strategic decision making.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?