How do you test your creative hypotheses?

1 Define your hypothesis

A hypothesis is a statement that expresses a possible explanation, prediction, or solution for a phenomenon or problem. A creative hypothesis is one that involves an original approach to address a challenge or opportunity. To define your creative hypothesis, you need to consider the problem or question you want to answer, the target audience or market you want to reach, the value proposition or benefit you want to offer, your assumptions and beliefs about the problem, audience, value, and solution, and the evidence you need to support or reject your hypothesis. For instance, a creative hypothesis for a new product may be "People who love gardening but live in small apartments would buy a smart vertical garden that automatically waters and monitors their plants due to the convenience and space-saving benefits it would provide."

2 Design your experiment

An experiment is a systematic procedure that tests your hypothesis by manipulating one or more variables and measuring the outcomes. A creative experiment is a low-cost, fast, and flexible method to test your hypothesis with real or potential customers or users. When designing a creative experiment, you should consider the goal or objective, the metric or indicator that measures success or failure, the variable or factor to change or test, the method or technique for collecting and analyzing data, as well as the criteria or standard to evaluate results. For example, an experiment to test the demand and willingness to pay for a smart vertical garden could involve setting a goal of 100 pre-orders at an average price of $200. The metric would be the number of pre-orders and average price. The variable would be design and features of the product. The method would be a landing page that showcases the product and invites visitors to pre-order it.

3 Execute your experiment

Executing your experiment means putting your plan into action and collecting data from your target audience or market. This involves finding potential customers or users, presenting them with your value proposition and solution, and asking them for feedback, behavior, or action. To achieve this, you need to prepare and test the materials and tools such as a landing page, survey, prototype, or pitch. Additionally, you must recruit and segment participants like existing customers, prospects, referrals, or online communities. Furthermore, you need to conduct and monitor the experiment by sending traffic to the landing page, conducting interviews, or observing user tests. Lastly, record and store the data such as the number of visitors, responses, clicks, conversions, or ratings in a spreadsheet or database. For example, to execute the experiment for the product hypothesis above you could create a landing page that showcases the smart vertical garden and its benefits while inviting visitors to pre-order it at different price points. Then use online ads, social media, and email to drive traffic to the landing page while tracking the number of visitors, pre-orders, and average price.

4 Analyze your data

Analyzing your data involves interpreting and evaluating the results of your experiment and comparing them with your hypothesis and criteria. To do so, you need to use quantitative and qualitative methods to identify patterns, trends, insights, and anomalies in your data. This includes summarizing and visualizing your data with charts, graphs, tables, or dashboards; calculating and reporting metrics such as the mean, median, mode, standard deviation, or confidence interval; testing and validating your hypothesis with hypothesis testing, statistical significance, or error analysis; and explaining and communicating your findings through storytelling, narratives, or recommendations. For instance, to analyze the data for the product hypothesis above you could create a dashboard that shows the number of visitors, pre-orders, and average price for each price point; calculate the conversion rate and the revenue for each price point; test if there is a significant difference between the price points and the expected criteria; and write a report that summarizes the results and explains the implications for product development and marketing.