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How do you select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio?

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Trend forecasting is a crucial skill for product development, as it helps you anticipate and respond to the changing needs and preferences of your customers. However, not all trends are equally relevant or impactful for your product portfolio. How do you select the most appropriate trends for your forecasting projects? In this article, we will share some tips and best practices to help you filter and prioritize the trends that matter most for your product development goals.

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1 Define your scope and criteria

Before you start scanning and analyzing trends, you need to define the scope and criteria of your forecasting project. What is the purpose and objective of your forecasting? Who are your target customers and markets? What are the key drivers and challenges of your product category? How far ahead do you want to forecast? These questions will help you narrow down your focus and set the boundaries of your trend research. You also need to establish some criteria to evaluate the relevance and potential of the trends you find. For example, you can use the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) to assess the impact of a trend on different aspects of your product environment.

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Art Casasa

Senior Engineering Executive ┃ Program & Project Management ┃ New Product Development┃High-Performance Global Team Building ┃Chief of Staff ┃Driving Transformation and Organizational Excellence
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To select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio, it's crucial to implement a holistic and iterative evaluation process beyond the initial scope and criteria definition. This involves engaging in continuous market scanning to detect early signals of change and an in-depth analysis of consumer sentiment and behavior through different channels such as social media listening, direct customer feedback mechanisms, etc. Afterward, prioritize trends not only by their immediate relevance but also by their projected longevity and alignment with your strategic objectives. Incorporate scenario planning to assess the potential impact of each trend under various future conditions, ensuring resilience and adaptability in your strategy.

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Akash Khorde

"Results-Driven Food Technologist | Research and Development | Production | HACCP | Experienced in Quality Control and New Product Development"| Six Sigma Belt|
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To select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio: 1. Analyze the market landscape. 2. Utilize industry expertise and diverse sources. 3. Assess potential impact and risks. 4. Consider trend longevity and sustainability. 5. Diversify your portfolio. 6. Use quantitative analysis techniques. 7. Monitor market dynamics and adjust accordingly. 8. Establish a feedback loop for refinement.

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Zemenu T.

Curious about product development and strategy? Welcome! ??
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Before diving into the selection of trends, it's crucial to define the purpose behind your forecasting portfolio. Are you aiming to inform product development, marketing strategies, or something else entirely? Understanding the 'why' will guide your 'what' when it comes to trend selection. Once the purpose is clear, you can then focus on identifying trends that align with your goals. Here are some key considerations: Relevance: Do the trends directly or indirectly impact the area of work? Impact: How significant is the potential effect of these trends on the industry or target audience? Longevity: Are these trends likely to be fleeting fads or have staying power?

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Brandon Leibowitz

Driving Startup Growth & Investment @ Starburst
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Defining the scope and criteria is the bedrock of any forecasting endeavor. Clearly articulate the purpose, objectives, and target customers or markets of your project. Identify key drivers and challenges within your product category. Specify the forecasting horizon. These parameters provide a focused framework for trend research. Establish criteria, employing frameworks like STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political), to gauge trends' impact on different facets of your product environment. This systematic approach ensures a structured and comprehensive analysis, laying the groundwork for effective trend identification and evaluation.

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2 Use multiple sources and methods

To select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio, you need to use multiple sources and methods of trend research. You can't rely on just one source, such as a trend report or a magazine, as it may be biased or incomplete. You need to diversify your sources and use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, such as data analysis, surveys, interviews, observations, experiments, and scenarios. You also need to look for trends in different domains and industries, not just your own, as they may have cross-over effects or inspire new ideas. By using multiple sources and methods, you can increase the validity and reliability of your trend selection.

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Brandon Leibowitz

Driving Startup Growth & Investment @ Starburst
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Ensuring a robust forecasting portfolio requires tapping into diverse sources and methods. Relying solely on one source risks bias or incompleteness. Embrace a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods – data analysis, surveys, interviews, observations, experiments, and scenarios. Expand beyond your industry, exploring trends in various domains for potential cross-over effects or innovative inspiration. This multifaceted approach enhances the validity and reliability of trend selection, providing a comprehensive foundation for informed forecasting decisions.

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3 Validate and rank the trends

Once you have collected and analyzed a number of trends, you need to validate and rank them according to your scope and criteria. You need to verify the evidence and assumptions behind each trend, and check if they are consistent and coherent with your product vision and strategy. You also need to compare and contrast the trends, and identify the ones that are most relevant, influential, and feasible for your product portfolio. You can use a matrix or a scorecard to rank the trends based on different dimensions, such as novelty, urgency, impact, alignment, and feasibility. You can also group or cluster the trends into themes or categories, to create a more coherent and comprehensive forecasting portfolio.

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Brandon Leibowitz

Driving Startup Growth & Investment @ Starburst
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Post data collection, validation, and ranking are pivotal steps in trend analysis. Scrutinize evidence and assumptions behind each trend, ensuring alignment with your product vision and strategy. Compare trends, identifying the most relevant, influential, and feasible ones. Utilize matrices or scorecards, evaluating dimensions like novelty, urgency, impact, alignment, and feasibility for ranking. Group trends into themes or categories for a coherent forecasting portfolio. This meticulous process ensures that the selected trends not only align with your objectives but also contribute meaningfully to your overall product strategy.

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4 Communicate and update the trends

The final step in selecting the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio is to communicate and update them regularly. You need to share your findings and insights with your stakeholders, such as your team, your customers, your partners, and your management. You need to explain the rationale and implications of each trend, and how it affects your product development decisions and actions. You also need to update your forecasting portfolio periodically, as trends evolve and change over time. You need to monitor the signals and indicators of the trends, and adjust your portfolio accordingly. By communicating and updating your trends, you can ensure that your forecasting portfolio remains relevant and useful for your product development.

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Brandon Leibowitz

Driving Startup Growth & Investment @ Starburst
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Effectively integrating selected trends into your forecasting portfolio involves regular communication and updates. Share insights with stakeholders – team, customers, partners, and management. Clarify the rationale and implications of each trend, highlighting its impact on product development decisions. Periodically update the portfolio as trends evolve. Monitor signals and indicators, adjusting the portfolio accordingly. Through proactive communication and continuous updates, your forecasting portfolio remains a dynamic and relevant tool, aligning product development with evolving trends and ensuring sustained strategic relevance.

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5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How do you select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Define your scope and criteria

2 Use multiple sources and methods

3 Validate and rank the trends

4 Communicate and update the trends

5 Here’s what else to consider

Product Development

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How do you select the most relevant trends for your forecasting portfolio?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Define your scope and criteria

2 Use multiple sources and methods

3 Validate and rank the trends

4 Communicate and update the trends

5 Here’s what else to consider

Product Development

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