How do you measure the accuracy of your Agile story points?

Estimates are not intended to be accurate. I am not sure how this confusion arises. When we have a car accident we get an 'estimate', yet we are comfortable with that not being accurate. We need to stop making estimates and commitments a source of fear. Do your best - that is all anyone can ask of us.

There is no point in measuring accuracy since the practice itself is wasteful. Team should spend time refining work items or solving blockers, instead of discussing whether it is 2 story points or 5 pregnant cats.

Story points do not drive accuracy. They never have, and they never will. No amount of wishing changes this dynamic. There are much better ways to improve the accuracy of your forecasts. Story points are useful for one thing and one thing only -- they allow teams to discuss the effort involved in upcoming work. If they team is smart about it, they can also help keep batch sizes small. Other than that, story points are useless.

To be honest, it's an estimate, so it can not be accurate as must as you think, but it should be realistic and reliable, but you can't grantee the accuracy.

Accuracy matters because it enhances decision-making and provides predictability, crucial for making informed commitments regarding delivery schedules and stakeholder management. It ensures that resources are allocated efficiently, timelines are realistic, and expectations are managed proactively. Estimation methods must account for an inherent margin of error, necessitating a clear definition of acceptable risk levels. This understanding allows for the development of contingency plans and the setting of more reliable performance benchmarks, ensuring a buffer for uncertainties and fostering a culture of continuous improvement in forecasting accuracy.

Story points are unit of measure of overall task complexity including risk and effort. Usually it is used to estimate more complex tasks with conditions of uncertainty when it is hard to predict in hours. In good practice it is better to have on hand standard task which takes 1 story point and take it to measure other tasks. The gradation of measurements for story points are consist from Fibonacci numbers (1,3,5,8,13 etc). The common mistake is to try to convert story points to hours, this would only add more disagreements estimation process, so don't do that. Totally agree that Poker Planning and Affinity Mapping are good techniques for story estimations.

D'abord comprendre les Story Points: Unité abstraite de mesure pour estimer la complexité, l'effort et le risque associés à un item. Ils ne sont pas directement liés au temps, mais plut?t à l'intuition et à l'instinct de l'équipe sur la taille d'un Item. Etablir une échelle de référence: Définissez des références pour les story points en sélectionnant quelques taches types et en leur attribuant des valeurs (par exemple, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8) puis les utiliser pour évaluer la complexité relative des nouvelles taches. Utilisez le Planning Poker: Une technique ludique, pour encourager l'évaluation collective. Avec le temps, l'équipe apprendra à mieux juger la complexité des taches et à ajuster ses estimations.

Simple: stop using them. The time wasted trying to estimate stories with story points would be much better spent breaking down work into manageable pieces that you can get done in a day or two tops and then start doing the work. Track that day over a month or two. See how many pieces of work you average per week. Use that data to predict how long it will take you to complete the remaining pieces of work in your backlog. Probabilistic forecasting tends to be much more accurate and is based on real data in your context. Not an abstraction that means something slightly different to everyone using it.

Estimating story points typically involves techniques like Planning Poker and Affinity Mapping. In Planning Poker, team members use cards to vote on story size, fostering collaboration and consensus. Affinity Mapping involves grouping stories by size and assigning points collaboratively. Both methods prioritize team discussion and consensus for accurate estimations. ????? #StoryPointEstimation

Use techniques such as Planning Poker or relative sizing to assign story points to user stories based on their complexity, effort, and risk relative to other stories. Break down user stories into smaller, more manageable tasks and estimate each task's story points. Consider factors such as complexity, uncertainty, dependencies, and historical data when assigning story points.

Cette technique est appréciée des Scrum Master car ?a donne l'impression de changement sans changement. L'idée est d'arrêter les estimations en temps et de les remplacer par des Story points. Pour faciliter leur mise en place, on dit qu'un Story Point vaut un jour. Et voilà, job's done ! ??

I don't and you shouldn't spend time for this useless thing. Measure the throughput and the cycle time. Then use continous probabilistic forecasting to have an idea of the challenge you could take.

In Agile teams, spending hours estimating using story points or other methods might not be the best use of time. It's more valuable for the team to focus on breaking down tasks, refining stories, and delivering real value. Rather than dedicating time to estimation, it's better to invest that time in activities that directly improve the product and benefit customers.

The accuracy of Agile story points can be measured by comparing the estimated story points to the actual effort or time required to complete the user stories. 1. Define a Baseline: Start by establishing a baseline through initial estimation. 2. Track Actual Effort: Record the actual time or effort it takes to complete each user story during the sprint. 3. Calculate Variance: After completing a set of user stories, calculate the variance between the estimated story points and the actual effort. 4. Analyze Deviations: Analyze deviations to understand the reasons behind overestimation or underestimation. 5. Adjust Estimation Techniques: Use the insights gained to adjust and refine your estimation techniques.

Whaou, cher IA. Tu n'es pas prêt de nous remplacer 1. Les Story Points reflètent la complexité, Pas le temps 2. La Vélocité est une mesure de capacité, pas de performance 3. L'Erreur de Story Point est une métrique inutile qui peut détourner de l'Objectif Agile En conclusion, bien que comprendre et améliorer les processus d'estimation soit une partie importante de l'agilité, il est crucial de se rappeler que l'objectif ultime est de livrer de la valeur efficacement tout en maintenant un environnement de travail soutenable et motivant pour l'équipe. Mesurer directement la précision des estimations par rapport au temps réel peut s'éloigner de ces principes agiles fondamentaux.

It may not be possible to be accurate 100% in estimating story points, But consideration of below points can help ?The historical data for same type of story ?complexity of work ?dependency of work ?discussion among team member to get everyone’s prospective (Can use Planning poker method)

At a certain point your organization needs to ask itself if it's in the business of producing beautiful velocity charts. Chances are very good you're not. You're in the business of producing a valuable product that can make money for the business. So why not do what actually works? Use cycle time, throughput, work item age, and total work in progress to determine how fast work is going now, and how it might be improved in the future.

One thing I have found helpful in increasing accuracy of estimated story points is having clear objectives, identifying relevant tasks and pre-requisites needed for the completion of the ticket. This leaves less room for guesses and results in better assessment of time needed for tickets to be 'done'

Improving story point accuracy involves leveraging historical data and feedback. Analyze previous sprint data, including velocity and error rates, to calibrate estimates. Incorporate feedback from team, customers, and stakeholders to refine assumptions and requirements. By continuously iterating based on insights, you enhance accuracy and ensure alignment with stakeholder expectations. ???? #ContinuousImprovementQA

There's always the retrospective meeting, where you look back and try to figure out if those points were accurate. "Remember when we thought that task was a 3? Ah, those were the days. We were so young and optimistic." It's a blend of guesswork, experience, and the occasional dart throwing. The real accuracy comes not from the points themselves, but from the team's ability to consistently underestimate their own optimism! But somehow, miraculously, it all works out. Teams deliver, products get built, and we all pretend like we knew what those numbers meant from the start ??

Accurate story point estimates are invaluable for planning and decision-making. I rely on this data to forecast project timelines, allocate resources effectively, and identify potential risks or bottlenecks. By leveraging accurate estimates, we maximize our productivity and ensure the successful delivery of our products.

Utilize story point accuracy to optimize Agile practices and outcomes. Set realistic goals, prioritize backlog items, and communicate progress effectively. By delivering value reliably, you build trust with customers and stakeholders. Embrace accuracy to cultivate a culture of continuous improvement, learning, and collaboration, driving success across the organization. ???? #AgileOptimizationQA

When discussing the usability of accuracy, it marks the stage where we can trade further insights for upcoming stories. It also aids in enhancing performance, ensuring timely customer deliveries, increasing customer trust, and measuring workload, which proves beneficial for future endeavors.

Accuracy in achieving definition of done may be meaningful. Accuracy in story points does not make much sense. If team feels its valuable, please discuss in your retrospective on that. More than accuracy of story point, we need to ensure that it to have more depth, based on team maturity or learning. Its a qualitative indicator than a quantitative indicator IMHO.

Get good enough at estimating so that your team no longer needs to do it. Truly high-performing teams don't squander time estimating. Better, clearer acceptance criteria is a better use of energy.

Scope of the story point is within the sprint. Velocity is to represent the number of story points that the sprint team can deliver, regardless of what is abstracted in it by the team. Repurposing it may be self defeating. After planning meeting team will be attaching estimated effort to the story, which may be used for reporting to audience who better appreciate time and cost.

Accuracy of story points… chasing your tail! What this asks for is to get better at guessing. The only way to do that is to have certainty and know everything up front… not a realistic goal Try for that certainty and in the time you will waste, you would have been able to build your product many times over. Stoppit! Get used to rough guesses and live with uncertainty. Drop story points and use throughput metrics and monte carlo simulation if you must

Pour assurer la précision des Story Point, il faut appliquer une méthode en 3 étapes Step 1 - Convertir les Story Points en Jour-Hommes Step 2 - Noter les écarts entre prévision et réalité Step 3 - Blamer les développeurs (soyez créatif) Et voilà le travail, avec le temps, les estimations deviendront meilleures avec de belles marges prises par les personnes en charge des estimations et des réalisations. Vous finirez peut-être même par terminer votre projet en avance Sinon, on se dit que ?a ne sert pas à grand-chose si ce n'est prendre le temps de discuter et d'aligner les coéquipiers.

In addition to the outlined strategies, fostering transparency within the team and stakeholders is crucial. Regularly sharing insights, challenges, and successes promotes trust and alignment. Encourage team members to voice concerns and suggest improvements, fostering a culture of openness and innovation. Furthermore, investing in ongoing training and development ensures the team stays updated with evolving methodologies and technologies, ultimately enhancing performance and adaptability. Embracing diversity and inclusivity within the team fosters creativity and perspective, driving better outcomes. Lastly, celebrating achievements, both big and small, reinforces a positive team culture and motivates continuous improvement.