How do you integrate scenario planning with other strategic tools and frameworks?

Wow, is there a more salient example than the Covid-19 pandemic? Some countries were more prepared because they had recent experiences with SARS and could imagine a repeat of that scenario. Annie Duke - author, and ex-professional poker player - explains how strategy is more like poker than chess. While we make plans, inevitably, we don't control all the variables. So we need to consider "multiple potential futures." Questions to ask: - What is my best, base, and worst-case scenarios? - What are the biggest assumptions driving my plans? - What immediate decisions give me the most / least flexibility? - How am I weighting my current decisions (money, time, brand)? - Who do I trust, who is willing to poke holes in this plan?

Scenario planning in other words is planning for known unknowns and not unknown unknowns. Often time many of the known unknowns can have a range of possibilities and thinking of extremes will help you determine the boundary conditions to plan around.

A useful way to create competitive or threat scenarios in particular is to nominate a ‘red team’ whose job it is to play the role of a competitor or adversary. It brings creative ideas and simulates real life, while not making your team feel as defensive as if someone were to question their strategy or readiness. In a meeting, this could also take the form of being a ‘twelfth person’ and take an opposing viewpoint

To weigh the outcomes of scenarios against each other, I use a simple framework with two questions: 1) What is the likelihood of a negative outcome occurring? 2) How severe are the consequences to our business if this outcome occurs? If the strategy is even slightly likely to result in an outcome with severe negative consequences, it may be better to choose an alternate strategy where the potential negative consequences are less severe. Another way of thinking about this is a variation of the question attributed to Jeff Bezos: “Is this a one-way door or a two way door?” In most cases, you are better off with strategies that allow you to come back to the starting line without damaging your business, even if the strategy fails.