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Last updated on 2024年9月3日

How do you forecast inventory demand and avoid overstocking or understocking?

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Inventory management is a crucial aspect of plant operations, as it affects your production efficiency, customer satisfaction, and profitability. However, forecasting inventory demand is not an easy task, as it involves various factors, such as market trends, seasonal patterns, customer preferences, and supplier reliability. How do you forecast inventory demand and avoid overstocking or understocking? Here are some tips to help you optimize your inventory levels and reduce inventory costs.

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Daniel Holanda ??

??LinkedIn Top Voice??|Lean Manufacturing |Industrial Engineering |Projects Leadership |Operations Management…
Alfonso Schiavino

Production Management | Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub | Speaker tecnología e innovación | Profesor Magister |…

1 Understand your demand patterns

The first step to forecasting inventory demand is to analyze your historical sales data and identify the patterns and fluctuations in your demand. You can use different methods, such as trend analysis, moving averages, exponential smoothing, or regression analysis, to project your future sales based on your past performance. However, you should also consider external factors, such as economic conditions, competitors' actions, customer feedback, and promotional campaigns, that may affect your demand. You can use qualitative methods, such as surveys, interviews, or focus groups, to gather insights from your customers and stakeholders.

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Daniel Holanda ??

??LinkedIn Top Voice??|Lean Manufacturing |Industrial Engineering |Projects Leadership |Operations Management |Operational Excellence - SR. Business Excellence Coordinator |Engineering Supervisor |Operations Manager
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na minha vis?o, é necessário analisar dados históricos de vendas para identificar tendências de mercado além de analise de varia??es sazonais. Isso ajuda a prever futuras necessidades de estoque e otimizar a gest?o de inventário. Analisar e entender constantemente esses padr?es, particularidades e sazonalidades permite tomar decis?es direcionada por dados, melhorando assim eficiência operacional e atendendo melhor os clientes

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Analyze historical sales data and identify patterns, seasonality, and trends in demand. Understanding your market, customer behavior, and external factors influencing demand is crucial for accurate forecasting.

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Ronan Juliano Pires Faleiro

Industrial | Produ??o | PCP | Excelência Industrial | Projetos Industriais | Lean Manufacturing | Kaizen | Melhoria Contínua | Industria Farmacêutica | Suplementos Alimentares | Fitoterápicos | Cosméticos | Health Care
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Análise de Dados: Utilize vendas passadas para identificar tendências. Modelos Estatísticos: Empregue técnicas como médias móveis ou ARIMA. Monitoramento de Mercado: Integre informa??es sobre tendências externas. Software de Previs?o: Adote sistemas de gest?o que automatizem previs?es. Feedback dos Clientes: Colete informa??es diretas para ajustar previs?es. Revis?o Contínua: Atualize previs?es regularmente. Gest?o JIT: Adote compras just-in-time para minimizar estoques excessivos. Colabora??o com Fornecedores: Mantenha flexibilidade no reabastecimento.

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Alfonso Schiavino

Production Management | Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub | Speaker tecnología e innovación | Profesor Magister | Impulsando soluciones de manufactura y mantenimiento | Fomentando IA industria
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La data es el activo más importante de una empresa, los mas importante es encontrar los patrones y vincularlos a lo que no está bajo nuestro control (política interna / productos estacionales / factores económicos etc ), es vital que el área comercial registre DATA para, luego debe contar con un potente software de análisis y cálculo de demanda basado en prediciones, con esta información podemos definir en la planta cual seria el mejor método de gestión de inventario y evitar una rotura de stock en nuestra fabricación.Y no debemos olvidar el equilibrio de los costes de inventarios

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2 Choose the right forecasting technique

The next step is to select the most appropriate forecasting technique for your inventory situation. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different techniques have different advantages and disadvantages, depending on the accuracy, complexity, cost, and data availability. You should evaluate the characteristics of your products, such as the demand variability, product life cycle, lead time, and replenishment frequency, and choose the technique that best suits your needs. For example, if you have a stable and predictable demand, you can use a simple method, such as the reorder point formula, to determine when and how much to order. However, if you have a volatile and uncertain demand, you may need a more sophisticated method, such as the safety stock formula, to account for the variability and risk.

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Tsachi Avrahami

Lean manufacturing, Six sigma, Lean management ??FDA / ISO regulated industry, Operations & Engineering consulting??cross-functional team collaboration, team leadership, Mentoring??IT Management, ERP/MRP systems, PLM
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There are a lot of things to consider when setting forecast and inventory levels. While the main concept that drives production rates is that inventory is waste, it is not always feasible to reduce inventory levels. If your historic patterns show periodic demands (for example the sales team has quarterly quota so end of quarter sales are much higher than the beginning) then it may make sense to plan a consistent production to gradually increase inventory throughout the period. Additionally, whether looking at raw inventory, WIP, or finished goods, always supplement a plan with min/max kanban.

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Select the most suitable forecasting method based on your industry, product characteristics, and data availability. Common techniques include time series analysis, regression analysis, and machine learning algorithms.

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3 Monitor and adjust your forecasts

The final step is to monitor and adjust your forecasts regularly, as your inventory demand may change over time due to various factors. You should track your actual sales and compare them with your forecasted sales to measure the accuracy and reliability of your forecasts. You should also update your forecasts based on the latest information and feedback from your customers, suppliers, and market conditions. You can use tools, such as dashboards, reports, or software, to help you monitor and adjust your forecasts in real time. By doing so, you can improve your inventory planning and decision making, and avoid overstocking or understocking.

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Alfonso Schiavino

Production Management | Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub | Speaker tecnología e innovación | Profesor Magister | Impulsando soluciones de manufactura y mantenimiento | Fomentando IA industria
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El ajuste de los pronósticos en la gestión del inventario es crucial. A medida que se procesan las materias primas, se generan costos de mano de obra, que deben considerarse desde un punto de vista contable. En segundo lugar, el inventario WIP puede crecer rápido y acumular costos innecesarios si no se controla y optimiza. Esto puede congestionar el almacén, e introducir costos adicionales. Si el WIP es peque?o, surgen cuellos de botella y paradas, lo que alarga los plazos de entrega. Con un software Ud. monitorea y ajusta en la falta o exceso de materia prima. También es importante dise?ar procesos optimizados de almacenamiento y considerar los volúmenes de inventario WIP que ya se encuentran en la fase de planificación de la producción

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Continuously monitor actual sales against forecasted demand and adjust your forecasts accordingly. Regularly update your forecasts based on changes in market conditions, promotions, new product launches, or other relevant factors.

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4 Implement inventory control systems

To effectively manage your inventory levels and reduce inventory costs, you should also implement inventory control systems that can help you optimize your ordering, storing, and distributing processes. You can use different types of inventory control systems, such as perpetual, periodic, or just-in-time, depending on your operational goals and resources. You should also use inventory control techniques, such as ABC analysis, EOQ model, or cycle counting, to help you classify, prioritize, and monitor your inventory items. By implementing inventory control systems, you can enhance your inventory visibility, accuracy, and efficiency.

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Alfonso Schiavino

Production Management | Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub | Speaker tecnología e innovación | Profesor Magister | Impulsando soluciones de manufactura y mantenimiento | Fomentando IA industria
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Ninguna cantidad de pronósticos puede superar un sistema de inventario mal optimizado. Se debe realizar seguimiento del inventario entrante y programarlo automáticamente en los pedidos de fabricación. También debe ubicarse con precisión para un uso rápido en producción. A medida que los artículos cambian de estado de materias primas a WIP, es imprescindible un seguimiento preciso, ya que en las etapas de subprocesamiento se agregan pasos de valor agregado como la mano de obra y la ruta. Los productos terminados deben localizarse rápidamente. Los tiempos perdidos son críticos. Esto se puede superar con software de inventario capaces de proporcionar una trazabilidad a medida que los productos avanzan a través de la fabricación.

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Utilize inventory management software and control systems to track inventory levels, reorder points, lead times, and safety stock. Implementing an automated system helps optimize inventory levels and streamline replenishment processes.

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5 Train and communicate with your staff

Another important factor for successful inventory management is to train and communicate with your staff who are involved in the inventory processes. You should ensure that your staff have the necessary skills, knowledge, and tools to perform their tasks effectively and accurately. You should also establish clear roles, responsibilities, and procedures for your staff to follow and coordinate with each other. You should also communicate with your staff regularly and provide them with feedback and support. By training and communicating with your staff, you can improve your inventory performance and quality.

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Alfonso Schiavino

Production Management | Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub | Speaker tecnología e innovación | Profesor Magister | Impulsando soluciones de manufactura y mantenimiento | Fomentando IA industria
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Es importarte que el equipo de trabajo este al día con las mejores prácticas en los procesos de inventario, al contratar debe validar que las competencias sean las necesarias para el cargo, la descripción de cargo debe ser clara y entendida, y la comunicación de los supervisores hacia los subalternos debe estar claramente definida, por ultimo la organización debe dotar de tecnología para el manejo diario de las operaciones, esto resultara en una mejor gestión del equipo de trabajo en cuanto a rendimiento y calidad.

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Ensure that your staff is trained in inventory management best practices and understands their roles in demand forecasting and inventory control. Effective communication channels facilitate collaboration and enable timely adjustments to inventory strategies.

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6 Collaborate with your suppliers and customers

Finally, you should collaborate with your suppliers and customers to improve your inventory management and forecasting. You should establish a good relationship with your suppliers and negotiate favorable terms and conditions for your inventory orders, such as quantity discounts, delivery schedules, or quality standards. You should also share your inventory information and forecasts with your suppliers and customers, and seek their input and feedback. You should also coordinate with your suppliers and customers to align your inventory goals and expectations, and resolve any issues or conflicts. By collaborating with your suppliers and customers, you can increase your inventory responsiveness and satisfaction.

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Foster partnerships with suppliers and customers to share information and collaborate on demand forecasting. Building strong relationships allows for better coordination of orders, lead time reduction, and joint problem-solving.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Yuvraj Singh

Experienced Logistics & Supply Chain Professional | 13+ Years in Transportation, Warehousing, and In-Plant Operations | Expert in 5S & Kaizen Methodologies.
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?? Additional factors to consider include inventory turnover ratios, carrying costs, obsolescence risks, economic indicators, and contingency planning for unforeseen disruptions such as supply chain disruptions or demand fluctuations. Flexibility and agility in response to changing market dynamics are key to successful inventory management.

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How do you forecast inventory demand and avoid overstocking or understocking?

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1 Understand your demand patterns

2 Choose the right forecasting technique

3 Monitor and adjust your forecasts

4 Implement inventory control systems

5 Train and communicate with your staff

6 Collaborate with your suppliers and customers

7 Here’s what else to consider

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