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How do you forecast the impact of new product launches or changes in your channel sales forecasting?

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Channel sales forecasting is a crucial process for any business that sells through indirect partners, such as distributors, resellers, or agents. It helps you plan your inventory, budget, marketing, and sales strategies based on expected demand and revenue. However, forecasting can be challenging when you introduce new products or make changes to your existing ones, as these can affect your channel performance and customer behavior. How do you forecast the impact of new product launches or changes in your channel sales forecasting? Here are some tips to help you.

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1 Understand your product lifecycle

Different products have different lifecycles, depending on factors such as market maturity, customer needs, competition, and innovation. Some products may have a long and steady growth, while others may peak quickly and decline rapidly. Knowing the lifecycle stage of your product can help you forecast its demand and revenue potential in your channel. For example, if you are launching a new product that is innovative and solves a customer problem, you may expect a high initial demand and a rapid adoption curve. On the other hand, if you are making changes to an existing product that is mature and saturated, you may expect a lower demand and a slower adoption curve.

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Filip Filipov

Cybersecurity | IT Sales | SaaS | Sales Leader | Account Management | B2B | Global
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Understanding your product lifecycle is pivotal for successful channel launches. In the introduction phase, focus on educating partners about the product. In the growth phase, expand channel reach and invest in marketing. During maturity, optimize channel strategies to maintain sales. In decline, consider exclusive offers or new variations. Analyze each phase's impact on partners, adjusting support and incentives accordingly. By aligning channel efforts with the product lifecycle, you maximize channel impact, ensuring a successful launch and sustained growth.

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2 Analyze your channel data

Your channel data can provide valuable insights into how your products perform in different markets, segments, and partner types. You can use historical data to identify trends, patterns, and seasonality in your channel sales, as well as to measure the impact of previous product launches or changes. You can also use current data to monitor your channel performance and feedback, such as sales volume, conversion rate, customer satisfaction, and partner loyalty. By analyzing your channel data, you can forecast the impact of new product launches or changes on your existing and potential customers, as well as on your channel partners.

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Veselina Petkova

?? Project Manager at PowerFleet | ?? Expert in Strategic Growth and Global Channel Development | ?? Leading Projects and Innovation in EMEA | ?? Building Strong Partnerships for Sustainable Success
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I've observed that market dynamics and competitor strategies greatly influence customer behavior and preferences. It's essential to integrate market trends and competitive intelligence into our forecasting models. This approach enables us to anticipate market shifts and adapt our strategies proactively. Regularly monitoring and analyzing competitor movements can offer valuable insights, helping us to fine-tune our product offerings and channel strategies to stay ahead in a dynamic market environment. This market-centric perspective is key to a comprehensive and effective channel sales forecast.

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3 Collaborate with your channel partners

Your channel partners are your eyes and ears in the market, and they can help you forecast the impact of new product launches or changes more accurately. They have direct contact with your customers and know their needs, preferences, and pain points. They also have access to market intelligence and competitor information that can inform your product strategy. By collaborating with your channel partners, you can get their input and feedback on your new products or changes, as well as their expectations and projections for their sales performance. You can also align your goals, incentives, and support with your channel partners to ensure a smooth and successful product launch or change.

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Greg Davidson

Bridging the gap between your company's capabilities...and your aspirations.
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The key is getting partners involved--and excited...and committed--early. The more they know, the better information and expectations they can provide back to you. Think of partners as an extension of your sales force--not an external entity. They want to help your launch go as well as possible--but you have to allow them to help you by engaging them in the process.

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Justyn P Leonard

I help partners to solve some of the biggest challenges that enterprise organisations face in how they build, test, secure and deliver software.
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Getting a select group of trusted partners connected with the product team is critical. They provide valuable and honest feedback about capabilities and how they fit with the customer need. That two way feedback loop is critical and give insights into where the product will land and what type of maturity is required as well as commercial and/or competitive positioning.

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4 Use a forecasting tool

A forecasting tool can help you automate and simplify your channel sales forecasting process, especially when you have multiple products, markets, and partners. A forecasting tool can help you collect and consolidate your channel data, apply statistical methods and algorithms to generate forecasts, and adjust your forecasts based on changing factors and scenarios. A forecasting tool can also help you visualize and communicate your forecasts to your internal and external stakeholders, as well as to track and measure your actual results against your forecasts. A forecasting tool can help you forecast the impact of new product launches or changes more efficiently and effectively.

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Filip Filipov

Cybersecurity | IT Sales | SaaS | Sales Leader | Account Management | B2B | Global
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To predict new product impact on sales targets, use advanced forecasting tools like Salesforce Predictive Analytics, Tableau, or IBM Watson Analytics. These tools analyze historical data, market trends, and customer behavior, providing insights into potential sales. Machine learning algorithms help predict demand patterns and optimize inventory. By leveraging these tools, businesses can make informed decisions, set realistic sales targets, and align channel strategies effectively for successful new product launches.

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5 Test and learn

Finally, forecasting is not a one-time activity, but a continuous process of testing and learning. You should always validate your forecasts with actual data and feedback, and update them as you learn more about the market response and the channel performance of your new products or changes. You should also experiment with different product features, prices, promotions, and channels to see what works best for your customers and partners. By testing and learning, you can improve your forecasting accuracy and agility, and optimize your product and channel strategies.

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Graham Dunsterville

International Summit Engagements
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Research: Understand market trends. Data: Analyze historical sales and KPIs. Scenarios: Develop best/worst-case scenarios. Pilots: Test launches on a small scale. A/B Testing: Compare elements like pricing. Collaborate: Engage cross-functional teams. Iterate: Embrace iterative learning and feedback. Adapt: Be flexible and adjust strategies. Data-Driven: Base decisions on real-time insights. Post-Launch Evaluation: Assess results against forecasts.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How do you forecast the impact of new product launches or changes in your channel sales forecasting?

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1 Understand your product lifecycle

2 Analyze your channel data

3 Collaborate with your channel partners

4 Use a forecasting tool

5 Test and learn

6 Here’s what else to consider

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