登录查看更多内容

Last updated on 2024年9月21日

How do you forecast aggregate unit production and demand?

由人工智能和领英社区提供技术支持

Forecasting aggregate unit production and demand for different product families is a crucial step in material requirements planning (MRP), a system that helps you plan and control your inventory and production processes. In this article, you will learn how to use aggregate production planning (APP) and MRP techniques to estimate the total quantity and mix of products you need to produce and sell in a given period.

此文章中的业界达人

由社区从 5 条内容中精选。了解更多

Wesley Barros

Analista de PCP Pleno na PKG Brasil | Planejamento e Controle da Produ??o | Inventário | Lean Six Sigma

1 What is APP?

Aggregate production planning (APP) is a method of determining the optimal level and timing of output for a group of products that share common resources and characteristics, such as materials, labor, equipment, and facilities. APP aims to balance the demand and supply of these products while minimizing the costs of production, inventory, and workforce changes. APP also provides the input for MRP, which breaks down the aggregate plan into detailed schedules and orders for each product and component.

添加您的观点

Wesley Barros

Analista de PCP Pleno na PKG Brasil | Planejamento e Controle da Produ??o | Inventário | Lean Six Sigma
举报内容
O Planejamento Agregado da Produ??o permite prever a produ??o e a demanda de uma unidade ao combinar previs?es de vendas, capacidades produtivas e recursos disponíveis. Ele alinha a produ??o com a demanda esperada em um horizonte de médio prazo, ajustando volumes de produ??o, estoque e m?o de obra. Isso é feito por meio da análise de históricos de demanda, tendências de mercado e capacidades operacionais, possibilitando um balanceamento eficiente entre produ??o e demanda, minimizando custos e otimizando o uso de recursos.

已翻译

赞
Eyal Boneh

MRP controller & data analyst
举报内容
Forecasting aggregate production and demand involves predicting the overall quantities needed and produced, not specific product details. We use historical data, market trends, and expert insights to create these forecasts. It helps businesses plan production, manage inventory, and meet customer demand efficiently.

已翻译

赞

2 How to forecast demand?

First forecast the demand for each product family over a planning horizon, which is usually a year divided into months or quarters. You can use various methods to forecast demand, such as historical data, market research, customer orders, or expert judgment. You should also consider factors that may affect demand, such as seasonality, trends, competition, promotions, or new product launches. The goal is to estimate the demand as accurately as possible, but also to account for uncertainty and variability.

添加您的观点

Ahmed Elsayed

Dynamic and results-driven Supply Chain and Sales Professional with over 15 years of combined experience in inventory management, demand forecasting, procurement, sales operations, and customer care|
举报内容
Define Forecasting Horizon Collect Data Choose Forecasting Methods Incorporate Influencing Factors Account for Uncertainty Review and Refine Utilize Technology

已翻译

赞

3 How to forecast production?

Next forecast the production for each product family based on the demand forecast and the available capacity. Capacity is the maximum amount of output that can be produced with the existing resources and constraints. You can measure capacity in terms of units, hours, or dollars. You should also consider the efficiency and utilization of your resources, as well as the quality and yield of your products. The goal is to match the production with the demand while minimizing the idle or excess capacity.

添加您的观点

4 How to choose a strategy?

Choose a strategy that defines how you will adjust your production and resources to meet the demand. There are two main types of strategies: level and chase. A level strategy keeps the production constant and uses inventory and backorders to cope with demand fluctuations. A chase strategy varies the production according to the demand and uses hiring and firing to cope with capacity changes. You can also use a mixed strategy that combines elements of both level and chase strategies. The goal is to choose a strategy that minimizes the total cost of production, inventory, workforce, and customer service.

添加您的观点

Ahmed Elsayed

Dynamic and results-driven Supply Chain and Sales Professional with over 15 years of combined experience in inventory management, demand forecasting, procurement, sales operations, and customer care|
举报内容
Define Strategy Goals: Identify the objective of balancing production and resources with demand. Level Strategy: Maintain constant production, using inventory and backorders to manage demand fluctuations. Chase Strategy: Adjust production based on demand, modifying workforce levels to match capacity needs. Mixed Strategy: Combine elements of both level and chase strategies for flexibility. Evaluate Costs: Consider the total cost of production, inventory, workforce, and customer service. Choose Optimal Strategy: Select the strategy that best minimizes total costs and meets demand efficiently.

已翻译

赞

5 How to develop a plan?

Develop a plan that specifies the quantity and timing of production for each product family over the planning horizon. You can use various techniques to develop a plan, such as mathematical models, spreadsheets, or software tools. You should also compare the costs and benefits of different alternatives and evaluate the trade-offs and risks involved. The goal is to create a feasible and optimal plan that satisfies the demand and meets the objectives of your organization.

添加您的观点

Ahmed Elsayed

Dynamic and results-driven Supply Chain and Sales Professional with over 15 years of combined experience in inventory management, demand forecasting, procurement, sales operations, and customer care|
举报内容
To develop an effective production plan, I analyze historical sales data to forecast demand for each product family. Using ERP systems, I create a detailed schedule specifying production quantities and timing. For example, in my previous role, we evaluated multiple production scenarios, comparing costs and benefits to determine the most efficient option. I also assess trade-offs, such as lead times versus inventory holding costs, to minimize risks. Collaborating with cross-functional teams ensures all perspectives are considered, leading to a robust plan. The goal is to create a feasible plan that aligns with organizational objectives while satisfying customer demand.

已翻译

赞

6 How to execute and monitor the plan?

Execute, monitor the plan, and update it as needed. You should communicate the plan to all the stakeholders involved in the production process, such as suppliers, workers, managers, and customers. You should also track the performance of the plan and measure the actual demand, production, inventory, costs, and service levels. You should also identify any deviations or problems that may occur and take corrective actions accordingly. The goal is to ensure that the plan is implemented effectively and efficiently and that it meets the expectations and requirements of your customers and organization.

添加您的观点

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

添加您的观点

Material Requirements Planning (MRP)

+ 关注

给文章评分

我们借助人工智能创建了此文章。您认为这篇文章怎么样？

很棒不太好

举报此文章

查看全部

How do you forecast aggregate unit production and demand?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 What is APP?

2 How to forecast demand?

3 How to forecast production?

4 How to choose a strategy?

5 How to develop a plan?

6 How to execute and monitor the plan?

7 Here’s what else to consider

Material Requirements Planning (MRP)

给文章评分

感谢您的反馈

更多Material Requirements Planning (MRP)相关文章

更多相关阅读内容