As a supervisor, you may face situations where you have to deal with multiple risks that threaten your team, your project, or your organization. How do you assess and prioritize risks in a crisis situation? Here are some tips to help you make informed and effective decisions.
The first step is to identify the risks that are relevant to your situation. You can use various sources of information, such as reports, data, feedback, or expert opinions, to gather facts and evidence. You can also consult with your team, your stakeholders, or your peers to get different perspectives and insights. Try to be as comprehensive and specific as possible, and avoid assumptions or biases.
Something that I find helpful in identifying risk is to break down the problem into 3 separate categories: Immediate Risk, Situational Risk, and Compound Risk. Immediate Risk, is anything that poses an immediate threat to your team, the success of a project, or vision of the company. If the Immediate Risk cannot be controlled or abated it is a good indicator that you must reevaluate your approach. Situational Risk is for anything that could occur when specific criteria are met. A good example is an accident that can occur due to set procedures not being followed. Or created by possible human error. Compound Risk is for risk that is created as a result of "minor" problems, errors, incidents, obstacles, or scale.
The next step is to analyze the impact and likelihood of each risk. Impact refers to the potential consequences or damage that the risk can cause, while likelihood refers to the probability or frequency of the risk occurring. You can use a simple scale, such as high, medium, or low, or a numerical rating, such as 1 to 5, to assess each risk. You can also use a risk matrix or a risk register to visualize and document your analysis.
Now that everything is broken down using my system. You can easily analyse all the risks separately. Immediate Risks: most direct consequences for all involved. Think about the potential immediate harm of the problems in this category. Situational Risks: what type of situations might occur during implementation? What procedures need to be followed? What will happen if someone does "X"? Compound Risks: what are we accepting/allowing to happen? Does involving more people increase risk? Will changes in the future cause more problems?
The third step is to prioritize the risks based on your analysis. You can use a simple rule, such as the highest impact and highest likelihood risks are the most urgent and important, while the lowest impact and lowest likelihood risks are the least urgent and important. You can also use a more sophisticated method, such as the expected value or the risk exposure, to calculate the priority of each risk. The goal is to focus on the risks that pose the greatest threat to your objectives and resources.
Using the breakdown I described above, Immediate Risk, Situational Risk, and Compound Risk. You can easily prioritize which problems to tackle first. Immediate risks should always be top priority as they pose the most immediate threat to your team, project, or company. It also can help you quickly determine how viable something is. Next priority is Situational Risk, now you need to consider potential pitfalls, or unexpected outcomes that could occur under specific circumstances. Finally and the lowest priority is Compound Risk. While still important to take into account, this covers the risk that collects overall as the result of potential minor errors, miscalculations, or collectively from the team itself as it operates.
The fourth step is to develop a response plan for each risk. A response plan is a set of actions and resources that you will use to prevent, mitigate, or resolve the risk. You can use different strategies, such as avoiding, transferring, reducing, or accepting the risk, depending on the nature and priority of the risk. You should also assign roles and responsibilities, set deadlines and budgets, and monitor and evaluate the progress and effectiveness of your plan.
The fifth step is to communicate and collaborate with your team, your stakeholders, and your management. Communication and collaboration are essential for ensuring that everyone is aware of the risks, the priorities, and the plans, and that everyone is aligned and committed to the actions and outcomes. You should use clear, concise, and consistent messages, and use appropriate channels and formats, such as emails, meetings, or reports. You should also solicit feedback, input, and support, and address any questions, concerns, or issues.
The sixth step is to review and update your risk assessment and prioritization regularly. Risks are dynamic and unpredictable, and they may change or evolve over time. You should monitor the internal and external factors that affect your situation, and check if there are any new or emerging risks, or any changes in the impact or likelihood of the existing risks. You should also measure the results and impact of your response plans, and adjust or improve them as needed.