How can you use scenario planning to compare alternatives in complex situations?

1 What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but rather imagining possible futures. It is a creative and systematic process that involves identifying the key drivers of change, the uncertainties that affect them, and the critical questions that need to be answered. Then, based on these elements, you can create a set of scenarios that describe different plausible outcomes, and analyze how they would affect your goals, strategies, and actions.

2 Why use scenario planning?

Scenario planning can help you compare alternatives in complex situations, because it allows you to test your assumptions, challenge your biases, and broaden your perspectives. It can also help you anticipate potential threats and opportunities, and prepare for them. Scenario planning can help you avoid being surprised or overwhelmed by unexpected events, and adapt to changing circumstances. It can also help you communicate your vision and rationale to others, and engage them in the decision-making process.

5 What are the challenges of scenario planning?

Scenario planning can pose some challenges when comparing alternatives in complex situations, such as the need for time and resources. It can be difficult and uncomfortable due to the uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding the process. Furthermore, it is heavily influenced by assumptions and judgments, which may be inaccurate, incomplete, or biased. Therefore, it is important to be aware of and question your own assumptions and judgments, as well as seek diverse and credible sources of information and perspectives.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?