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Last updated on 2024年6月25日

How can you recognize sunk cost fallacy?

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You've probably heard the advice to cut your losses and move on when something is not working out. But sometimes, you might feel tempted to stick with a bad decision or investment because you've already spent a lot of time, money, or effort on it. This is called the sunk cost fallacy, and it can cloud your judgment and prevent you from making optimal choices. In this article, you'll learn how to recognize and avoid this common reasoning fallacy in decision-making.

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1 What is the sunk cost fallacy?

The sunk cost fallacy is a cognitive bias that makes you value past costs more than future benefits. It occurs when you continue to pursue a course of action or project that is no longer viable or desirable, simply because you've already invested resources in it. You might think that quitting would be a waste of your previous investments, or that you need to justify them by completing the task. However, this is irrational, because the past costs are irrelevant to your current decision. They are sunk, meaning they cannot be recovered or changed, regardless of what you do next.

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Reinaldo dos Santos Barros

Eletricista, iniciando a carreira como Redator Web
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Acredito que quanto mais conhecermos sobre como funciona a mente humana, sobre neurociência, teremos mais ferramentas para lidar com nossos vieses. Mesmo com algum conhecimento, às vezes, somos ou reagimos a vários fatos de nossa vida com um olhar distorcido da realidade. Nos enganamos quando pensamos que nossas decis?es s?o pautadas na raz?o, na verdade n?o s?o... s?o baseadas na emo??o, justificadas com a raz?o. Ent?o, para que evitemos perda de recursos e tempo, devemos, cada vez mais, investir em conhecimento. A partir daí teremos mais elementos para trabalhar nossas limita??es e pensamentos distorcidos.

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Donna Oard

Executive Coach | Imposter Syndrome Innovation Coach | Neurodiverse | Emotional IQ Leadership | Chingona | Entrepreneur | Scrappy Leadership | Veteran Spouse
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Remember that recognizing the sunk cost fallacy as an imposter can help you avoid being influenced by it yourself and make objective decisions based on the present situation rather than past investments.

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Aniket Gupta

Strategy Consultant @ IBM Consulting | Bain & Company | KPMG | PwC | SIBM Pune | BITS Pilani
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To avoid or navigate sunk cost fallacy, ensure to apply frameworks like cost-benefit analysis, SWOT analysis, or decision trees to evaluate options logically. Further, acknowledge your emotional attachment to the project and strive to separate these feelings from your decision-making. If you are a leader, ensure to promote a culture where learning from mistakes is valued over sticking to failing endeavors.

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2 Why does it happen?

There are several psychological factors that contribute to the sunk cost fallacy. One of them is loss aversion, which is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains. You might perceive abandoning a failing project as a loss, and feel more pain from it than from the potential gain of starting a new one. Another factor is commitment, which is the desire to be consistent with your previous actions and beliefs. You might feel obligated to finish what you started, or to prove yourself right, even if the evidence suggests otherwise. A third factor is emotion, which is the influence of feelings and moods on your reasoning. You might have an emotional attachment to the project, or feel guilty, ashamed, or embarrassed to admit your mistake and change your mind.

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Reinaldo dos Santos Barros

Eletricista, iniciando a carreira como Redator Web
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Das qualidades e atributos humanos mais nobres, a que considero uma das mais importantes é a humildade. Alguém que tem como característica a humildade consegue admitir um engano, um erro de cálculo, consegue trabalhar em equipe, consegue pedir auxílio. Seria a atitude ideal para n?o ser influenciado, um bom antídoto para n?o cair em fatores psicólogos como o da Falácia do Custo Afundado.

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3 How can you avoid it?

Recognizing the sunk cost fallacy is the first step to avoiding it. You can do this by asking yourself questions such as whether you are basing your decision on past or future benefits and costs, if you are ignoring new information that contradicts your initial decision, and if you are letting emotions interfere with your judgment. To overcome the sunk cost fallacy, strategies such as adopting a growth mindset, seeking feedback and advice from others, setting clear and realistic goals and criteria for success and failure, creating a plan B, and practicing self-compassion can be applied. By applying these strategies, you can learn from your mistakes and make better decisions in the future.

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Thorsteinn Siglaugsson
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The easiest way to avoid succumbing to the sunk cost fallacy is to always base decisions on an evaluation of expected future revenues and costs. Does that mean past revenues and costs should be ignored? Not at all, but that information should affect your decision only to the extent that it may be used to realistically estimate future revenues and costs.

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4 How can you benefit from it?

By avoiding the sunk cost fallacy, you can make better decisions and improve your performance and outcomes. Instead of focusing on the past, you can save time and energy for more productive activities. This will also help to prevent escalation of commitment, which is the tendency to invest in a losing situation. Additionally, it will enhance creativity and innovation by exploring new possibilities and opportunities. It will also increase satisfaction and happiness by pursuing goals and values, as well as boost confidence and resilience by acknowledging strengths and weaknesses.

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5 What are some examples of it?

The sunk cost fallacy can significantly impact different aspects of life, such as career, relationships, hobbies, and purchases. For example, you may remain in a job that doesn't fit your skills or interests due to the time, money, or education invested. Similarly, you may stay in a toxic relationship because of the emotional or physical resources spent. Additionally, you could continue to practice a hobby that doesn't bring any benefit because of the equipment or materials purchased. Finally, you might keep using a product or service that doesn't meet your expectations because of the money paid or the contract signed.

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Reinaldo dos Santos Barros

Eletricista, iniciando a carreira como Redator Web
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Acredito que investimento em auto conhecimento e ajuda profissional, dependendo do caso, pode ser de grande ajuda. Nem sempre conseguimos identificar quest?es psicológicas que nos afetam. Por isso, quanto mais nos conhecermos, quanto mais conhecermos os padr?es humanos, mais ficaremos imunes. E se sentirmos incapazes de resolver nossas próprias quest?es, com conhecimento poderemos, também, saber como buscar auxílio.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you recognize sunk cost fallacy?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 What is the sunk cost fallacy?

2 Why does it happen?

3 How can you avoid it?

4 How can you benefit from it?

5 What are some examples of it?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Decision-Making

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How can you recognize sunk cost fallacy?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 What is the sunk cost fallacy?

2 Why does it happen?

3 How can you avoid it?

4 How can you benefit from it?

5 What are some examples of it?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Decision-Making

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