How can you predict the impact of weather changes on your building's energy consumption?

2 Weather normalization

The second step to predict the weather impact on your building's energy consumption is to perform weather normalization. Weather normalization is a process that adjusts your energy consumption data to account for the variations in weather conditions over time. This allows you to compare your energy performance across different periods, seasons, and years, and to identify the baseline energy consumption of your building. You can use different methods to perform weather normalization, such as degree days, bin analysis, or regression models. You should also select the appropriate weather variable and base temperature for your building type and function.

3 Weather sensitivity

The third step to predict the weather impact on your building's energy consumption is to calculate your weather sensitivity. Weather sensitivity is a measure of how much your energy consumption changes in response to changes in weather conditions. It can be expressed as a percentage, a ratio, or a coefficient, depending on the method you use. For example, you can use the heating degree days (HDD) method to calculate your heating sensitivity as the ratio of your heating energy consumption to the HDD in a given period. The higher your weather sensitivity, the more your energy consumption is affected by weather changes.

4 Weather scenarios

The fourth step to predict the weather impact on your building's energy consumption is to create weather scenarios. Weather scenarios are hypothetical situations that describe how the weather conditions might change in the future, based on historical trends, climate models, or expert opinions. You can use different types of weather scenarios, such as average, extreme, or probabilistic, depending on your purpose and level of uncertainty. You should also consider the time horizon, the spatial scale, and the frequency of the weather scenarios, as well as the variables that are most relevant for your building.

5 Weather impact estimation

The fifth step to predict the weather impact on your building's energy consumption is to estimate the weather impact. Weather impact is the difference between your actual or expected energy consumption and your baseline energy consumption under normal weather conditions. You can use different methods to estimate the weather impact, such as simple subtraction, ratio analysis, or regression models. You should also consider the accuracy, complexity, and applicability of the methods, as well as the sources of error and uncertainty.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?