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How can you monitor emerging trends and disruptions that affect your strategy?

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Monitoring emerging trends and disruptions is crucial for any strategic leader who wants to stay ahead of the curve and adapt to changing markets, customer needs, and competitive pressures. However, it can be challenging to identify and analyze the signals of change that may have significant implications for your strategy. In this article, you will learn some practical tips and tools to help you monitor the external environment and spot the opportunities and threats that may affect your strategic goals and actions.

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1 Scan the horizon

The first step to monitor emerging trends and disruptions is to scan the horizon for relevant signals of change. These can be events, developments, innovations, or patterns that indicate potential shifts in the social, technological, economic, environmental, or political domains. You can use various sources of information, such as industry reports, academic journals, media articles, podcasts, blogs, social media, or expert opinions, to collect and track these signals. However, you should also be selective and focus on the most credible, relevant, and diverse sources that match your strategic context and objectives.

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Barbara Gray

Equity Analyst, Brady Capital Research Inc.
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In order to strategically position your company to capitalize on opportunities resulting from shifting technological, societal and economic forces, you need to stay on top of the latest and emerging structural disruption trends — not just in your industry, but in all industries. I start every morning scanning through the latest news on my iPhone using Twitter, Flipboard and Google.

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James Tunkey

Chief Operating Officer @ I-OnAsia | TRIUM Global Executive MBA
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Remember, you are scanning for things that might be good or bad. Imagine you are on an old sailboat. Is there more wind that could make you go faster on one side of the horizon? Is there a lightning storm coming that could crack your mast? How quickly is the change occurring? It is important to understand that a trend line connects at least two data points. Consider how much data about a trend will you need before you feel comfortable acting. Some leaders are willing to take more risk and act with less data. Some are happy crossing the street with the crowd.

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2 Categorize and cluster

The next step is to categorize and cluster the signals of change into meaningful groups or themes. This will help you reduce the noise and complexity of the information and identify the key drivers of change that may affect your strategy. You can use different frameworks or criteria to categorize and cluster the signals, such as STEEP (social, technological, economic, environmental, political), PESTEL (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal), or SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). The main goal is to create a clear and concise overview of the main trends and disruptions that are emerging in your external environment.

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Barbara Gray

Equity Analyst, Brady Capital Research Inc.
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Each week I start with a blank canvas and piece together emerging structural disruption trends (technological, societal, economic) across industries, creating a 5-10-page research note. Through using my proprietary Value Pyramid, combined with my 20+ years of experience analyzing companies and industries, I am able to provide unique, thought-provoking and forward-looking insights to my institutional investment and corporate clients. And every three months, I bring my completed canvases together to create a collage of emerging structural disruption themes in the form of a 50+ page in-depth research report. Then every nine months, I bring all my research together into a book which I give to my clients.

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3 Analyze and assess

The third step is to analyze and assess the impact and uncertainty of the trends and disruptions that you have identified. This will help you prioritize the most important and relevant ones for your strategy and understand how they may affect your current and future situation. You can use different tools or methods to analyze and assess the trends and disruptions, such as scenarios, impact-uncertainty matrix, trend impact analysis, or cross-impact analysis. The main goal is to create plausible and diverse stories or models of how the external environment may evolve and what implications it may have for your strategy.

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Barbara Gray

Equity Analyst, Brady Capital Research Inc.
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I like to use mind maps to come up with an outline for my research reports. Lately, I've been using ChatGPT as my Research Associate to help me brainstorm ideas. I've also found that pasting my research note and asking ChatGPT to write a rap or poem on the key insights helps me get to the essence of what I'm trying to convey.

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James Tunkey

Chief Operating Officer @ I-OnAsia | TRIUM Global Executive MBA
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Part of this assessment stage includes seeking feedback and testing whether your model/assumptions are correct. You should dedicate time to self-reflection: does your own analysis/approach have a bias that is emerging during the monitoring process? Create experiments that will allow you to gather new data.

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4 Communicate and engage

The final step is to communicate and engage with your stakeholders and team members about the trends and disruptions that you have monitored and analyzed. This will help you share your insights and perspectives, solicit feedback and input, and build alignment and commitment for your strategic actions. You can use different formats or channels to communicate and engage, such as reports, presentations, workshops, webinars, or newsletters. The main goal is to create a dialogue and a learning culture that fosters strategic awareness and agility in your organization.

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5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Nik Nicholas

Managing Partner at Covelent
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Integrate and Iterate: Integrate the insights gained and iterate your strategy. It's not enough to just monitor and communicate. A truly strategic leader turns insights into action Integration incorporates your understanding into your current strategic initiatives. While tempting to isolate this to a 'strategy session' or 'quarterly review', true integration is more organic. This could mean reshaping project plans or even altering your organisation's mission statement. Although, this doesn't always imply a radical shift. Small targeted adjustments sometimes yield significant results Once you've adapted, don't stop. The process is iterative. Your business landscape is dynamic, not static. Continuous review and recalibration are essential

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How can you monitor emerging trends and disruptions that affect your strategy?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Scan the horizon

2 Categorize and cluster

3 Analyze and assess

4 Communicate and engage

5 Here’s what else to consider

Strategy

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How can you monitor emerging trends and disruptions that affect your strategy?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Scan the horizon

2 Categorize and cluster

3 Analyze and assess

4 Communicate and engage

5 Here’s what else to consider

Strategy

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