How can you make evidence-based decisions instead of assumptions?

There is no way to make decisions that are fully based on evidence. We never have the full required information on hand. Prof. Herbert Simon already stated this more than fifty years ago. You always have to make assumptions. You better be aware of them, and re-check your assumptions based on new evidence.

The way one looks at evidences could also reflect one's biases.It is not uncommon to find two people with differing points of view on same topic having "evidence" to back up their claim. The way evidence/data is collected, compared, defined or interpreted is all susceptible to biases/errors. So "evidence" alone cannot be the sole arbitrator of truth. What one needs is "falsification" of one's hypothesis. If you fail in all genuine and multiple attempts at falsification ( from your fiercest of critics)- you can assume your hypothesis to be true, for the time-being. You can get started with that but reality can surprise you as well - so be ready to change your mind.

You write"...you need to clearly define the problem ... or the goal..." NO! You need first to define the goal, which is a necessary condition for being able to define the problem that prevents you from achieving more goal units.

"With my experience in management and operations, I'd say evidence-based decisions are paramount. Cultivating curiosity, we prioritize continuous data collection. Collaboration is key, leveraging diverse perspectives from cross-functional teams. Investing in data analytics and fostering data literacy empowers our workforce. Transparently communicating data limits and uncertainties is crucial. Decision-making is a continuous learning process. Post-decision, thorough reviews create a feedback loop for improvement. This approach, blending data, collaboration, technology, and a commitment to learning, has shaped both informed decisions and a resilient organizational culture."

Eli Shragenheim has a good point. Many years ago, Robert Heinlien wrote that a good leader makes right decisions with inadequate information. I used to wonder how on earth you,are supposed to do that until I was made aware of the fact that when you don’t have all the information you need (and you never do) you must make assumptions. Once we recognize that we are basing our actions, at least ‘in part’ on assumptions, then we can make ourselves aware of our assumptions and continually test those assumptions as further information becomes available. This is where many business leaders fail. Once they have made a decision based on assumptions, they let their pride entrench them in this decisions and push blindly ahead.

Gathering evidence in decision-making is quite like the due diligence performed during a business acquisition. Just as companies wouldn't make multi-million dollar purchases based on hearsay or general industry knowledge, decision-makers shouldn't base their executive decisions on mere assumptions.

A partir da formula??o das hipóteses, busca-se os dados relevantes do ponto de vista estratégico e também que funcionem para a avalia??o da efetividade da iniciativa como um todo.

Gathering evidence is crucial in decision making as it ensures that you’re operating from a logic driven method as opposed to an emotionally driven one. Listing the evidence down as pros and cons help bring perspective into how they effect the decision that need to be taken. This approach helps derive at a decision driven by facts. As such it is crucial to list as many evidences as you can find and carefully list them as pros or cons.

Gathering evidence hinges on several crucial factors, is there a robust monitoring system in place? Does your reporting system provide reliable and comprehensive information? Most importantly, the knowledge and expertise of the individuals responsible for this process of Gathering evidence are paramount, as they ensure the proper execution of the task.

Ferramentas quantitativas e qualitativas se complementam. A análise de métodos mistos pode ser de grande ajuda em contextos que exigem o cruzamento de mais de uma fonte de informa??o para o teste das hipóteses criadas.

While thorough evidence-based decision-making is invaluable, there's also a need to strike a balance between speed and accuracy. In some situations, quick decisions are required, and in those cases, relying on past data and experience can be a pragmatic approach.

It's not just important to base your decisions on data, but it's equally important to communicate it effectively. This is where data storytelling can help. Stories are emotional, memorable, and influence people to action. Your data stories can be equally effective with stakeholders.

Um dos maiores desafios está n?o só na cria??o de um rol de decis?es possíveis, mas no processo de prioriza??o dos mesmos. Quando muitos stakeholders participam do processo, abre-se espa?o para a aplica??o de ferramentas como o AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process).

@Gino Wickman has one of my favorite breakdowns on the Problems. There are only 3 strategic responses: -Fix it -Ignore it -Kill it Running any problem through the lens of these categories and determining the value proposition of each option has been very helpful in working with people who always want to fix everything.

The five basic statistical methods are mean, standard deviation, regression, hypothesis testing, and sample size determination. Statistics help us turn data into information; that is, data that have been interpreted, understood and are useful to the recipient. An aspect that I find helpful is a meta statistical analysis on evidence based decisions. Applying the double blind placebo regression method will avoid biases and minimise assumptions.

Simply put, once you've made the best decision you can make that's not enough. Carefully measure and track the impact of that decision. Is it what you'd expected? Better? Worse? And by how much. What's different about this application of your method to the problem at hand. And how can that be quantified so as to inform the next similar decision.

Some decisions have to be made on assumptions. They can also be made on intuitions. What we need to always consider in decision-making is agility. Look at every decision as a new situation. Even if the environment is the same, elements of the problem is same, the decision is new. In this way, we avoid personal biases and stay creative in decision-making.

To make decisions grounded in evidence rather than assumptions, the critical starting point is addressing personal biases. Our biases subtly shape how we gather and interpret data, thereby impacting the decisions we ultimately reach. Acknowledging this inherent challenge is the initial step on the path toward more objective and evidence-based decision-making. While it's undoubtedly a challenging endeavor, cultivating awareness of our biases is a significant stride toward approaching the truth with greater objectivity and reducing bias when striving for evidence-based conclusions.

Assumptions can be part of the decision-making process, however, accepting the assumption as a fact sometimes can be harmful to your employees, your business, or yourself. What you can do is: - to be prepared; - to gather as much information as possible; - to determine if you have the right resources; - ask for opinions and consider different points of view;