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How can you estimate the effort and duration of user stories in agile methodologies?

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Estimating the effort and duration of user stories is a key aspect of agile methodologies, such as Scrum and Kanban. User stories are short descriptions of the features or functions that users want from a product or service. They help the team prioritize, plan, and deliver value to the customers. However, estimating user stories can be challenging, as they are often vague, complex, or uncertain. In this article, you will learn some tips and techniques to estimate user stories effectively and realistically.

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1 Why estimate user stories?

Estimating user stories is essential for the team and stakeholders to align their expectations, communicate their progress, and manage their resources. This process can help the team determine the scope and feasibility of the project, decide how many user stories to include in each iteration or sprint, track their velocity and productivity, identify and mitigate risks and dependencies, and adjust the plan and priorities based on feedback and changes. Furthermore, estimating user stories can improve the team's collaboration, estimation skills, and understanding of user needs.

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Humberto Arias ??

Senior Product Manager @ Microsoft + PhD student @ Hult + Ms AI student @ UT
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User stories are required to be estimated in order to understand the allocatable capacity of a DEV team. An estimation should not be tight to an expectation of conclusion otherwise you risk the trust of your stakeholders. As the team matures more and understand their very own dynamics (Tuckman model included in this conversation) and the technology that they are working on; their estimation will get more accurate Key concepts here: maturity, and trust

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2 How to estimate user stories?

Estimating user stories requires following certain methods and tools, which share some common principles and steps. To start, it's best to break down large or complex user stories into smaller, simpler ones. Additionally, it's important to use relative estimation instead of absolute estimation, which means comparing the size and complexity of user stories to each other, rather than assigning a specific number of hours or days. Furthermore, a consistent unit of measurement should be used (such as story points, t-shirt sizes, or Fibonacci numbers) to reflect the effort, uncertainty, and risk involved in completing a user story. Involving the whole team in the estimation process is also important as they have different perspectives and expertise; techniques such as planning poker, affinity mapping, or bucket system can be used to facilitate group estimation and consensus. Finally, the estimates should be reviewed and revised regularly since new information, feedback, or changes may affect the user stories.

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Humberto Arias ??

Senior Product Manager @ Microsoft + PhD student @ Hult + Ms AI student @ UT
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While you can validate the assumptions that drive any specific estimation technique, what is committed to be achieved “should” be done! While estimating an activity is important to use certain tools and techniques that a PMP holder would find familiar. Such as: expert judgment, analog estimations, parametric estimations, empathy, and humility. Did I add a couple of soft skills here? Yes, because these estimations became more effective on a team setting, leveraging the experience of senior members who balances the energy of juniors. While this dynamics adjust into a team is advisable to be open for feedback and avoid taking personal any observation that might point out an oversimplification or an overestimation. Being both equally dangerous

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3 How to calculate the duration of user stories?

The duration of user stories is the time it takes for the team to complete them. It depends on the team's capacity, availability, and velocity. The team's capacity is the amount of work they can do in a given period, such as a week or a month. The team's availability is the percentage of time they can dedicate to the project, considering other commitments, holidays, or interruptions. The team's velocity is the average number of units of measurement (e.g., story points) they can deliver in each iteration or sprint.

To calculate the duration of user stories, the team can use the following formula:

Duration = (Total units of measurement / Team's velocity) x Iteration or sprint length

For example, if the team has 100 story points to complete, their velocity is 20 story points per sprint, and their sprint length is two weeks, the duration of user stories is:

Duration = (100 / 20) x 2 = 10 weeks

However, this formula is only an approximation, as the team's capacity, availability, and velocity may vary over time. Therefore, the team should monitor and adjust the duration of user stories based on their actual performance and feedback.

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4 How to communicate the estimates and the duration of user stories?

The estimates and the duration of user stories are not fixed or final, but rather indicative and flexible. To ensure that stakeholders such as the product owner, customers, and sponsors are aware of this, the team should communicate the estimates and the duration of user stories clearly and transparently. This should include explaining the assumptions, criteria, and methods behind them, expressing them as ranges to account for variability and risk, providing regular updates and reports on progress and status, highlighting any changes, issues, or dependencies that may affect them, and seeking feedback and validation from stakeholders on the value and quality of the user stories.

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5 How to improve the estimation and the duration of user stories?

The estimation and duration of user stories are not static or one-time activities, but rather dynamic and continuous processes. To improve their estimation and duration skills and practices, the team should constantly collect and analyze data on their actual effort and time spent on user stories, and compare them to their estimates and duration. Furthermore, they should identify any gaps, errors, or biases in their estimation and duration, apply lessons learned and best practices to their future estimation and duration, experiment with different estimation and duration methods and tools, and evaluate their effectiveness. Lastly, the team should seek feedback and coaching from experts or peers on their estimation and duration.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Paul Harrison Batterham
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Story pointing is not something you dictate, it’s something a team develops to align WoW and improve esimating. As a Programme Manager (PgM) my primary role is to select a team with agile skills. I would insist on the lead team having qualifications and experience in agile delivery. They can nurture less skilled team members assigned to the programme. My role as a PgM is to coach, nurture and support delivery of the squad. In my programmes my initial focus is on team building to establish a WoW. In that process I’d look to the scrum master to baseline story point sizes through backlog analysis and team exercises. Once a team normalises, I see velocity stabilise, and commitment to planned dates are achieved. I hope this helps.

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Humberto Arias ??

Senior Product Manager @ Microsoft + PhD student @ Hult + Ms AI student @ UT
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While reaching a scenario in which team members feel extremely comfortable of their estimations is desirable, it could be mistakenly interpreted. A team which constantly and accurately meet their estimations must be read carefully. Absolutely cross validated with other variables; a lead must be wise enough to identify if a team is lacking of challenges… are living in their comfort zone… or are just falling in the spiral of an operational endeavor disguised as an agile effort. Feeling comfortable with the uncertainty and ambiguity of missing the original estimation will lead to powerful conversations. Don’t miss that opportunity!

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Cecelia Reyes

Program Manager | Project Management | Strategic Collaboration, Metrics Implementation, and Team Leadership | Agile | Passionate about Operational Excellence and Innovation
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Estimating the effort and duration of user stories in agile methodologies involves breaking down complex stories, using relative estimation methods like story points or Fibonacci numbers, and engaging the whole team in the estimation process. Calculating the duration depends on the team's capacity, availability, and velocity, with a formula such as Duration = (Total units of measurement / Team's velocity) x Iteration or sprint length. Communication of estimates and durations should be transparent, highlighting assumptions and variability. Continuous improvement in estimation and duration skills requires analyzing actual effort, identifying gaps, experimenting with different methods, and seeking feedback from experts or peers.

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How can you estimate the effort and duration of user stories in agile methodologies?

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2

3

4

5

6

1 Why estimate user stories?

2 How to estimate user stories?

3 How to calculate the duration of user stories?

4 How to communicate the estimates and the duration of user stories?

5 How to improve the estimation and the duration of user stories?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Program Management

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How can you estimate the effort and duration of user stories in agile methodologies?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Why estimate user stories?

2 How to estimate user stories?

3 How to calculate the duration of user stories?

4 How to communicate the estimates and the duration of user stories?

5 How to improve the estimation and the duration of user stories?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Program Management

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