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How can you ensure your project estimates are free from bias?

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Project estimation is a crucial skill for any construction professional, but it can also be influenced by various sources of bias that can affect the accuracy, fairness, and profitability of your bids. Bias can come from your own assumptions, preferences, emotions, or incentives, as well as from external factors such as market conditions, client expectations, or competition. To ensure your project estimates are free from bias, you need to follow some best practices that can help you improve your estimation process and avoid common pitfalls. Here are some tips to help you achieve more objective and realistic project estimates.

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Josh Baker P.E.

It's not the critic who counts... The credit belongs to the man in arena. - T. Roosevelt

1 Understand the scope

The first step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to understand the scope of the project clearly and comprehensively. You need to gather as much information as possible from the client, the design documents, the site conditions, and the regulatory requirements. You also need to define the deliverables, the quality standards, the risks, and the contingencies. By having a clear scope, you can avoid underestimating or overestimating the project, and you can communicate your expectations and assumptions to the client and the stakeholders.

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Josh Baker P.E.

It's not the critic who counts... The credit belongs to the man in arena. - T. Roosevelt
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The greater the definition of the scope the more accurate the estimate. Hit the high dollar things the most if you need an early estimate. Often the most expensive pieces of Water/Wastewater is: Concrete, Equipment, and Electrical. If you can get these more defined early it will help.

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2 Use reliable data

The second step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to use reliable data from credible sources. You need to base your estimates on historical data, industry benchmarks, market research, and expert opinions. You also need to update your data regularly and adjust it for inflation, location, seasonality, and complexity. By using reliable data, you can avoid relying on your intuition, guesswork, or outdated information, and you can justify your estimates with evidence and logic.

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Josh Baker P.E.

It's not the critic who counts... The credit belongs to the man in arena. - T. Roosevelt
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In my experience historical values are dead. They have been useless for the past 3 years due to current economic conditions. Instead to succeed you MUST engage the subcontractors that will actually be doing the work in the estimate. If they give their input early, I would say it will at least double your accuracy.

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3 Apply consistent methods

The third step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to apply consistent methods and tools for calculating and presenting your estimates. You need to use standard units, formats, and terminology, and follow the same procedures and criteria for every project. You also need to use appropriate estimation techniques, such as parametric, analogical, or bottom-up, depending on the level of detail and accuracy required. By applying consistent methods, you can avoid confusion, errors, or inconsistencies in your estimates, and you can compare and evaluate your estimates more easily.

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Josh Baker P.E.

It's not the critic who counts... The credit belongs to the man in arena. - T. Roosevelt
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Have a CM do the estimating for you. In the past 5 years every single engineer estimate we have conducted has been off the mark. Conversely every CM estimate we have done has been much closer to the bid results.

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4 Review and validate

The fourth step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to review and validate your estimates before submitting them. You need to check your estimates for accuracy, completeness, and realism, and identify any gaps, errors, or uncertainties. You also need to seek feedback and validation from other experts, such as your colleagues, supervisors, or consultants, who can provide a different perspective and challenge your assumptions. By reviewing and validating your estimates, you can avoid overlooking or ignoring any factors that can affect your estimates, and you can improve your confidence and credibility.

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5 Be transparent and ethical

The fifth step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to be transparent and ethical in your dealings with the client and the stakeholders. You need to disclose your assumptions, sources, methods, and uncertainties, and explain how you arrived at your estimates. You also need to avoid any unethical practices, such as padding, low-balling, or bid-rigging, that can compromise your reputation and integrity. By being transparent and ethical, you can avoid any conflicts of interest, disputes, or legal issues, and you can build trust and rapport with your clients and stakeholders.

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6 Learn and improve

The sixth step to avoid bias in your project estimates is to learn and improve from your experience and feedback. You need to track and measure your actual performance against your estimated performance, and analyze the variances and the reasons behind them. You also need to solicit and incorporate feedback from your clients, stakeholders, and peers, and identify the areas where you can improve your estimation skills and processes. By learning and improving, you can avoid repeating the same mistakes, and you can enhance your estimation accuracy and quality.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Josh Baker P.E.

It's not the critic who counts... The credit belongs to the man in arena. - T. Roosevelt
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One additional thing is to properly set expectations for those who are using the estimate. You must communicate its level of accuracy. No estimate is going to be perfect, at the end of the day you never really know how much something will cost until someone is willing to sign their name on the dotted line. Perhaps with current conditions you will never really know until you sign the last check for the work.

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How can you ensure your project estimates are free from bias?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the scope

2 Use reliable data

3 Apply consistent methods

4 Review and validate

5 Be transparent and ethical

6 Learn and improve

7 Here’s what else to consider

Construction

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How can you ensure your project estimates are free from bias?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Understand the scope

2 Use reliable data

3 Apply consistent methods

4 Review and validate

5 Be transparent and ethical

6 Learn and improve

7 Here’s what else to consider

Construction

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