How can you effectively account for uncertainty and risk when estimating time and resources for a project?

To account for uncertainty and risk when estimating time and resources for a project: 1. Create a contingency buffer in the timeline and budget. 2. Identify potential risks and their impact. 3. Develop risk mitigation strategies. 4. Use historical data and expert judgment to refine estimates. 5. Regularly review and update estimates as the project progresses.

Risk identification is an essential process in project risk management, in which risks that may affect the project are determined and their characteristics are documented. It is an iterative process that should be repeated throughout the project life cycle, and therefore new risks that were not evident earlier are recognized and addressed. It is necessary to promote the productive involvement of all project stakeholders in identifying the individual project risks and sources of overall project risk. In this context, it is particularly crucial to encourage the participation of the project team members, throughout the project, in risk identification activities, thereby fostering a sense of shared responsibility for the identified risks.

?? In my experience, classifying risks isn't just about identifying them, but truly understanding their roots. ?? Root Cause Analysis Dig deep into risk origins. Understanding 'why' aids prevention or mitigation. ?? Quantitative vs. Qualitative Combine qualitative risk assessment with quantifying financial impacts. ?? Dependencies & Cascading Risks Interrelated risks can amplify each other; consider cascades. ?? Inclusivity in Risk Identification Engage diverse team members for comprehensive risk spotting. ?? In conclusion, a holistic view of risks, considering their origins, type, and interrelations, enhances the classification and understanding process.

All potential risks are discovered during the "identify risks" phase and recorded in a project document referred to as the "risk register". Then comes qualitative risk analysis. It may then lead to quantitative risk analysis or right away to risk response planning. Both qualitative risk analysis (QLRA) and quantitative risk analysis (QTRA) are critical steps in the risk management process in project management. They perform several functions and offer important information for successfully managing risks.

Not sure what risks have to do with cost estimation. If budget allows, the Program Team can build contingency into the budget but the plan may have a fixed live date that cannot move. Compiling a Risk Log and categorising the Risks doesn’t give a cost value because the risk may never happen. It only requires a cost when it becomes an issue.

Estimating with defined ranges, making assumptions based on a deep understanding of the scenario can help minimizing uncertainties. It's crucial to incorporate a buffer and allocate resources while considering these risk factors. Transparently communicating risks with stakeholders ensures everyone is aligned in their understanding. Leveraging historical project data aids in more accurate time and resource estimates. Lastly, an important practice is learning from past experiences to improve future endeavors.

Understanding project deliverables are of utmost importance in any project. Once you understand the deliverables, and out of your experience around delivery, you can always have some scope for contingencies and plan accordingly. Also, keeping a little bandwidth free for all the team member always helps in these circumstances of contingencies so that others can also accommodate and this build the team on stronger principles.

Risk and uncertainty both can affect projects and a lot of these factors differ from project to project and industry to industry. Clearly understanding the difference between risks and uncertainties that the project would face is pivotal. Risks can be measurable which makes estimating cost and likelihood easier than uncertainties. There are great tools for estimating and for them to work, recognizing all the possibilities of both risks and uncertainties and defining them would be the most important first step.

I think that when looking at the wholistic aspect, factors such as level of communication shape a system that is specific to the uniqueness of your setting. Standardized systems are guidelines and specific regular encounters dictate how your uncertainties can be clarified early on. This is because communication gives rise to sense of preparedness that saves both time and resource allocation.

Risk itself is a very risky business! As the project progresses you unearth more facts and catching the variances as early as possible often contributes to the very success or failure of the project based on the impact. But scanning for new risks and updating the risk register doesn’t just help the current project but it helps future projects of similar nature too. Future projects rely on the data from these current projects to build their risk register and with each project’s register updated it forms a good starting point for the future projects.

Maintaining the E2E Program Plan on a weekly basic and publishing the revised plan to all parties is best practice. The PMO as part of their responsibilities will monitor cost against budget for headcount, cross charging, tools etc

By consulting their knowledge and allowing them to be the subject matter experts of their respective fields, you can gain valuable insights that might otherwise remain undiscovered. They can pinpoint potential risks and nuances that you might not have been aware of, enhancing the depth and accuracy of your risk assessment. Embracing a collaborative approach in risk estimation not only promotes collective ownership of the project's success but also empowers your team to collectively navigate the ever-present uncertainties that come with project management.

One thing I've found very effective is a rolling forecast model that continuously feeds back actual data vs. estimates within milestones instead of waiting for the end of milestones or projects. That way, we can learn about the reasons for variances while projects are ongoing and feed back the intelligence into the model, which in turn creates better estimates.

Consider to look at two more matrices to determine your risk score, Detectability & Proximity. Detectability looks at how easy it is for one to detect the impact of risk. For example, the initial COVID-19 depends largely on PCR before the ART is available. PCR L could took hours, depending on availability, whereas ART took minutes. Proximity looks at how far away or how near we are from the risk, which could determine the speed of impact. Proximity does not constraint to the physical distance, it might also be the relative position on the value chain.

This advisory course is confused, the title suggests project costs and project management whilst the details focus on identifying risks. They are very different.

When you have experience it’s guesstimate you provide in terms of resources and time. The first sheet of documentation plays very crucial role as it gives clear picture of works needs to be done, can be done and cannot be done. Also based on this, potential risks can be calculated in the beginning and solution can be worked on simultaneously to prevent delays or issues at future stages of development.