Your forecasted demand is way off the mark. How will you adjust to meet the actual demand?

Forecasts are always wrong Having said that, I would suggest a deep dive into the numbers and analyzing the “off” numbers Finding the root cause to the error In any case, I would steer off manipulation of the forecasts as this often leads to bigger errors that are harder to find

Was there a recent event that could have impacted demand? e.g. a rainy weather forecast can impact the performance of sunglasses sales. If the cause is not straightforward, deep dive into the difference vs. expectations per brand, division, product category, etc. to identify where the gap comes from. Check in with key stakeholders to find out if anything has changed e.g. Product Management, have there been significant changes to the collection? e.g. Supply, have suppliers cancelled a significant amount of production? And so on. Use the gap to your advantage. Was the forecast significantly under demand? Invest in A-ranking product. Was the forecast significantly over demand? Deplete slow sellers.

Start by revisiting your demand analysis framework. Scrutinize historical data and real-time inputs to identify anomalies. Leveraging advanced analytics tools like ARIMA models or machine learning algorithms can help refine future forecasts. Assess your supply chain's flexibility. Utilize techniques like buffer stock management and dynamic safety stock calculations to cushion against demand volatility. Enhance your S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) processes to align supply with actual demand more closely. Engage in scenario planning to anticipate potential disruptions and swiftly adjust your strategies. Collaborate closely with suppliers and distributors to ensure agility.

Past trend analysis to build the baseline demand is important. Consolidation of BI and form the future demand trend. Challenge the numbers with facts, understand the BI input and make sure it is make sense based on analysis

Analizar la demanda de cualquier producto es un reto debido a todos los factores que pueden influir en ella desde el precio hasta los gustos de los consumidores. Por esta razón, hay que analizar no solo los números sino también al tipo de persona que forma al consumidor ?Qué estilo de vida tiene? ?Con qué frecuencia compra? ?Por qué lo compra? ?Para qué lo compra? Todas estas preguntas son claves para tener un análisis de demanda exitoso

Start by employing dynamic safety stock levels to buffer against unforeseen demand spikes. Leveraging demand sensing techniques with real-time data can help you quickly adjust inventory and production schedules. Implementing S&OP (Sales and Operations Planning) processes allows you to regularly review and adjust plans based on actual demand. Developing an agile supply chain with multiple sourcing options ensures you can switch suppliers or routes when necessary. Utilize advanced analytics to identify and mitigate bottlenecks in your production processes. Cross-functional teams can be pivotal in swiftly reallocating resources. For instance, reassigning skilled workers across different production lines can boost efficiency.

La flexibilidad es un factor clave para poder responder ante la volatilidad de la demanda. Se debe tomar en cuenta diversos factores como la capacidad de producción, la flexibilidad de los proveedores y los costos relacionados a los cambios que puedan surgir. Todo esto será vital para ser una empresa exitosa que sea capaz de cumplir con la demanda sin afectar su liquidez

Reassess your current stock levels using real-time inventory management systems. Implementing ABC analysis helps prioritize high-impact items and adjust reorder points accordingly. Collaboration with suppliers becomes crucial. Strengthening supplier relationships can enhance flexibility in procurement, allowing for quicker response to demand fluctuations. Utilize lead time reduction strategies to minimize delays. Monitoring key metrics such as inventory turnover ratios and stockout rates will provide insights into adjustment efficacy. Leveraging predictive analytics tools can refine future forecasts and improve demand planning accuracy. Balancing responsiveness with cost control is vital.

Collaboration between stakeholders are important to get demand as accurate as possible. Actively challenge the the numbers that stakeholders provided, this is to ensure forecast that place in are make sense

La comunicación es fundamental en cualquier empresa. Es indispensable que la información sea de libre acceso para todos los involucrados en el proceso para que asi sea del entendimiento de todos cuál es la meta a alcanzar y el rol que cumple cada equipo en hacer esa meta realidad

Forecasting as a principle is wrong as there's evidently no certainty to achieve the Forecast even if based on recurrent patterns... It's extremely important to assess price elasticity, financial impact (Rev/GM) and get financial approval on driven financial Vs. Plan... although, I strongly believe that the core of the demand plan in order to keep it flexible and manage excess/shortages is to understand the process from sending a demand signal on product level till procurement management... this way, you get to understand the timelines and how that impacts you're risk assessment on filling the gaps... which will then contribute to making the right decision on your specific use case.