What's your strategy for managing risk and uncertainty?

Create “cones of possibility” - in other words, assume that the best and worse cases are much more extreme than you will intuitively beloeve. Humans are very bad at predicting the future and tend to create risk models that are too precise

Some ways to get started: In my role at YouTube, I manage a high portfolio of partners with their day to day performance on our platform. Risk/uncertainty management is easiest when the entire team is aware from the start. I managed possible risk and uncertainty through project management skills; noting what the risk was, the level (high vs. low risk), and the benefits. Documenting and clearly communicating helps reduce the intensity and ambiguity of risk. It also helps develop logical steps for solving a problem, and introduces the ability to anticipate future questions/issues for a team.

In our strategic initiative within the AI Space, we utilized scenario planning, leveraging our deep domain expertise to identify known risks and stay agile for unknown challenges. . This approach allows us to anticipate market shifts, regulatory changes, and technological advancements, ensuring our strategy remained robust and adaptable

Start by assessing your organization's risk appetite and tolerance to identify acceptable risk levels and potential loss thresholds. Key risks in project, program and portfolio management include scope creep, budget overruns, and resource constraints. Develop a comprehensive risk management plan with detailed mitigation and contingency strategies and regularly review and update it to address new risks. Use advanced tools like risk matrices, Monte Carlo simulations, and SWOT analysis to categorize and prioritize risks. I ensure continuous monitoring and adjustments aligned with your risk appetite and tolerance to keep things on track and achieve its goals.

Understand types of risk: reputational, human or legal risks may be assessed differently vs a risk where to consequence is merely negative financial impact (eg the risk tolerance of a human safety incident may be much less than the risk tolerance of needing to pay a financial penalty)

Organizations can mitigate the impact of a crisis on their strategic pursuits by preparing thoughtfully for an uncertain future. Contingency plans, developed as part of normal business operations, enable an effective and decisive response to incidents. This includes monitoring key performance indicators to initiate contingency plans promptly, assembling a team of leaders, providing direction and intent that empower team members, scaling resources efficiently, and prioritizing planning for a sustainable return to normal. The ability to adapt to changing and dynamic situations, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, allows organizations not only to survive unanticipated risks but also to grow through crises.

I feel this is where Agile Planning helps. At RiDiv, we stay agile and implement adaptive planning and continuous monitoring to stay informed and ready to pivot as needed. . In the products we develop, we prefer establishing feedback loops and regular reviews to adjust strategies quickly, ensuring resilience and opportunity identification.

Worth ensuring you have transparently communicated your risks and decisions associated with it to ensure sufficient “air cover” from leadership if things go wrong (to avoid being “thrown under the bus”!)

Transformational opportunities do not come without some risk- doing something not done before, Making some big bets, spotting trends in turbulent times… this is actually fun and probably where the most significant opportunities sit in real life!

We need to shift our perspective and see risk-taking and the ability to handle uncertainty as crucial skills for leaders and for life in general. The fear of confronting uncertainty often stems from a fear of failure, which is tied to our self-perception. If we separate the outcome from our identity, viewing our actions as learning experiments regardless of success or failure, we can better manage uncertainty and feel more comfortable taking risks. Remember, your worth is not tied to outcomes. Embrace uncertainty without fear, for your value remains constant, irrespective of the results.

Adopt a mindset shift that moves away from viewing outcomes as a binary of failure or success. Instead, embrace the numerous shades between success and failure, guiding us toward our best selves. By embodying this mindset and rewarding our teams for doing the same, we can foster a culture of adaptability and open-mindedness. A culture that is responsive to challenges is where true innovation blossoms.