What's the best scenario planning approach for your business?

1 Intuitive Logics

This is the most widely used and flexible method of scenario planning, where you identify the key drivers of change and uncertainty in your environment, and combine them into coherent and plausible stories of the future. You can use various techniques, such as brainstorming, interviews, surveys, or trend analysis, to generate and prioritize the drivers, and then create a matrix or a diagram to map out the scenarios. The advantages of this method are that it allows for creativity, diversity, and richness of scenarios, and that it can be adapted to different levels of complexity and uncertainty. The disadvantages are that it can be subjective, time-consuming, and prone to biases or blind spots.

2 Morphological Analysis

This is a more structured and analytical method of scenario planning, where you break down your system or problem into multiple dimensions or variables, and then assign different values or states to each variable. You then use a morphological box or a table to explore all the possible combinations of values or states, and select the most relevant or interesting ones as scenarios. The advantages of this method are that it is systematic, comprehensive, and rigorous, and that it can handle high levels of complexity and uncertainty. The disadvantages are that it can be tedious, cumbersome, and difficult to communicate or visualize.

3 Probabilistic Modified Trends

This is a more quantitative and probabilistic method of scenario planning, where you use historical data, forecasts, and statistical models to estimate the future values or trends of the key variables or indicators in your system or problem. You then apply different assumptions or modifications to the trends, based on your expectations, preferences, or scenarios, and calculate the probabilities or impacts of the outcomes. The advantages of this method are that it is data-driven, objective, and precise, and that it can provide numerical estimates or ranges for the scenarios. The disadvantages are that it can be data-intensive, technical, and deterministic, and that it can overlook qualitative or emergent factors or events.

4 La Prospective

This is a more normative and visionary method of scenario planning, where you start with your desired or preferred future state or vision, and then work backwards to identify the actions, strategies, or pathways that would lead to that state or vision. You also consider the obstacles, risks, or alternatives that could prevent or divert you from achieving your state or vision, and how to overcome or mitigate them. The advantages of this method are that it is goal-oriented, motivational, and strategic, and that it can inspire innovation and transformation. The disadvantages are that it can be unrealistic, optimistic, or biased, and that it can neglect the current or emerging realities or challenges.

5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?