What are the most common forecasting mistakes for new product launches?

Underestimating or overestimating the demand within your respective market. This is typically due to the lack of historical data being available.

We can only connect the dots backwards. Historical data itself, and in some cases the lack of any data to support the case may have the same value - zero. We had a US based SAAS company that wanted to start a marketing and sales office in the Middle East. They had the data, had the strategy, had the numbers and a plan. Around $1M in positioning, events and marketing - to realize nothing. The on-ground realities may not necessarily be determined with the historical data/previous experience alone. Being present, conducting your own market research, and more than anything else - talking to potential customers and the insights gained through these conversations will turn out to be invaluable.

Insufficient Market Research: Failing to conduct thorough market research is a major mistake. Without a clear understanding of your target market, customer needs, and competitors, your forecasts are likely to be inaccurate. Neglecting Historical Data: Ignoring historical sales data or not properly analyzing it can lead to forecasting errors. Past sales trends and customer behavior can provide valuable insights into future performance.

Neglecting historical data analysis is a common mistake in forecasting that can significantly impact the accuracy of forecasts.

Common forecasting mistakes for new product launches include: 1. **Overreliance on Historical Data:** Depending too much on existing product data, which may not accurately predict new product performance. 2. **Inaccurate Growth Forecasting:** Overestimating growth, especially for startups, leading to unrealistic expectations. 3. **Poor Inventory Planning:** Incorrect forecasting causing insufficient or excessive inventory, or stocking in the wrong locations. 4. **Lack of Competitor Analysis:** Failing to consider competitor products and market performance for better informed forecasts. By avoiding these mistakes, companies can improve the accuracy of their new product launch forecasts and increase the likelihood of success.

A mistake is not considering in your launch calendar the approval process timing of large customers (sales volume/number of stores) present in each of the retail chains. Launch plans have to be presented in advance, in a confidential manner, before new product/service come to market.

Being too internally focuses until ignoring market dynamics. Disregarding the competitive landscape and market dynamics can lead to inaccurate forecasts. Failure to consider competitors, substitute products, or changing market trends can result in unrealistic demand projections. Example: A clothing company launched a new line of winter jackets without considering the entry of a strong competitor with similar products. The company expected high demand but faced poor sales due to customer preference for the competitor's brand.

Your product can't be taken into consideration in a vacuum. You must look at the market offerings, feedback loop from customers and even why you are losing deals, which heavily drive internal conversations on improvements (or should). Product owners usually get stuck in the idea they know what the product needs to do to make the market fit towards it, but the mistake is exactly that. You need to adapt to the market, not the other way around and you can't do this by ignoring it.

The items in this section of the article make sense and are important. Additionally, Organizations need to have a firm understanding of the TAM, personas, competitive landscape, and barriers to entry. If they have none of these, it's a crap-shoot. By using historical from existing products (assuming theres any overlap at all) in combination with the metrics above, (plus the items in "mistake 1") an organization can create a forecast, but they need to understand there will be a wide margin of error.

Lack of understanding market rules and regulations. To penetrate certain markets you need up to 3 years of get an approval. If you ignore this, your production plant can rust before you get your first order.

Having a lot of demand for your product is great but only if you can supply it. If you can't, then you fall into the trap of having your customers leave for another similar offering on the market. Similarly, you might face issues when overestimating demand where you plan projections and investments based on a "wishful thinking" approach rather than actuals. This might cause frustrations with investors and constantly missed targets which then cascades down to the teams and people.

Marketing doesn't always equate to consumer engagement, even if you have a great campaign. You have to really understand your customer and their needs/wants/spending habits in order to build a more accurate forecast.

It is crucial to understand how the customer will initially engage with your product. Understanding the marketing strategy behind what enticed your customer, product features have been highlighted, or the demographic is being targeted should be aligned with the subsequent sales strategy. Having a pulse on where marketing is targeting the business, allows more precise and accurate forecasting.

Your plan should be continuously adjusted throughout the year. No plan can perfectly predict the future, so you will need to make regular adjustments to accommodate changing variables.

I do not agree with this. Not all new products ought to be included in a sales compensation plan. Sometimes it is called for to put specific incentives in place in order to drive focus on strategic / new offerings, but much of the time is not. There needs to be a certain amount of "organizational readiness" before emphasizing and/or including in a sales compensation plan. This means that sellers must have the training & tools, focus on a familiar customer base (or one they know to have demand, and value delivery capabilities (the org must be able to provide the solution). If any of these are lacking, then don't give sellers targets for it or they'll fail and lose morale. Orgs also need to include strat/new products the right way.

In addition to all the above contributions , depending on where you are coming from , experience and experiments , it is also imperative to consider Inflation and political environments while launching your new products . Penetration and scheming methods visa vise purchasing powers of your target markets . Can there be a successful product launching in Nigeria today based on all the marketing variables so far considered , past and present ??? .

I think this is a little too broad to be effective - sales is not and should not be responsible for all new product launches. In a PLG environment, sales is often not even communicating with the customer about specific product/feature launches the same way they would for a net new buyer. It's more important to identify the levers or teams who are responsible for driving the success of the new product, whether that's the sales team or not.

Unsustainable Growth Exceeding the highest forecasted sales earlier than anticipated is a good indication of a successful product launch. However, if no action is taken, the growth will be halted. Companies should set triggers in embarking on the next steps if certain milestones have been achieved. This is to guarantee the sustainability of the product sales growth and all other related products afterwards.

There Are Many Most Common Forecasting Mistakes While New Product Launches. * Announce Too Early * You Are Not Different Enough * Ignoring The Competitors * Market Research Was Conducted Improperly * Launche To The Wrong Audience * Poor Branding And The Main Thing Is You Have Overconfidence About Your Product And You Are Not Checking Things Properly.

Lack of understanding functions and personas, their job-to-do and how your product can help them. Many products are developed in labs by technicians that love their products and features, of course. But Buying Influencers don't care it, they want to know how your product can make them more successful. If Marketing fails to communicate it, then it is necessary to correct the forecasting figures to the south.

Variations in geographic markets can significantly influence product performance. You need to supplement your historical data with new market research, customer feedback, and competitor analysis, and consider regional differences to get a more accurate picture of the potential demand and market share for your new product in every market.

Common mistakes while lauching new product. 1.lose the momentum 2.to many data calculate on market demand 3.focus on distribution of goods while branding to late