What is a hypothesis and how do you create one for A/B testing in copywriting?

1 The components of a hypothesis

A hypothesis has three main components: a variable, a direction, and a reason. A variable is the element of your copy that you want to test, such as the headline, the call to action, or the tone. A direction is the expected change in your performance metric, such as click-through rate, conversion rate, or engagement rate. A reason is the explanation of why you think the variable will affect the direction, based on your audience insights, best practices, or previous tests. For example, a hypothesis could be: "Changing the headline from a question to a statement will increase the click-through rate because it will create more curiosity and urgency."

2 The benefits of a hypothesis

A hypothesis helps you to design and run your A/B test more effectively and efficiently. By having a clear prediction of what you want to achieve and why, you can avoid testing random or irrelevant variables that won't make a difference. You can also focus on the most important metric for your goal and avoid getting distracted by other data. A hypothesis also helps you to analyze and interpret your results more objectively and accurately. By comparing your actual outcome with your expected outcome, you can validate or invalidate your hypothesis and learn from your findings.

3 The steps to create a hypothesis

Creating a hypothesis for your A/B test in copywriting is not as hard as it sounds. To get started, you should first define your goal and research your audience. Then, identify the variable you want to test and write your hypothesis using the formula: "Changing [variable] from [current version] to [test version] will [direction] the [metric] because [reason]." As an example, if you want to increase the sign-ups for your webinar, and you are targeting small business owners, you could use the hypothesis: "Changing the call to action from 'Register now' to 'Save your spot' will increase the sign-up rate because it will convey more value and scarcity." Now that you understand what a hypothesis is and how to create one, you can start testing. Make sure to only test one variable at a time, run your tests for long enough to get enough data, and use a tool like Google Optimize or Unbounce to set up and track your experiments. Best of luck!

4 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?