What do you do if you're a risk manager facing uncertainty and ambiguity in complex risk challenges?

Uncertainty and ambiguity are inherent in complex risk challenges. To tackle complex risk challenges, organizations should adopt a shift mindset, embrace flexibility, and mitigate ambiguity. This involves scenario planning, identifying blind spots, and developing contingency plans. A flexible risk management framework allows for course correction. To mitigate ambiguity, gather relevant data, consult experts, and use the Delphi Technique. Focus on factors within control, such as risk mitigation strategies, improved data collection processes, and enhanced communication plans. Continuously improve decision-making by learning from experience and sharing knowledge.

As a risk manager facing complex challenges, prioritize a culture of risk awareness and use robust assessment tools to evaluate risks quantitatively and qualitatively. Implement scenario planning to prepare for various outcomes and adopt agile decision-making processes for flexibility. Enhance communication, leverage technology for data-driven insights, and maintain strong stakeholder relationships. Continuously monitor risks, ensure ongoing learning, and prepare contingency plans. Uphold ethical standards and promote a psychologically safe environment to encourage open discussions about risks. This comprehensive approach helps navigate uncertainty and strengthen organizational resilience.

From my experience I believe we should do risk Assessment & analysis: Conduct a comprehensive risk assessment to identify and understand the nature of the risks you are dealing with. Use various risk analysis techniques such as scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations to quantify and prioritize risks. Engage Stakeholders: Involve key stakeholders from across the organization to gain diverse perspectives on the risks and potential impacts. Collaborate with subject matter experts to better understand complex risks and potential mitigation strategies.

Things can change quickly, so we shouldn't get hung up on predicting the future perfectly, we look for any info that might help us understand the risk, even if it's not complete. We should tackle the problems we can actually control, focus on stopping the risks that could cause the most trouble, decide how much risk is acceptable for our situation, and be willing to adjust our approach. Most importantly, keep key staff informed about the risks and our plans. And remember, there's no shame in asking for help! By saying "I don't know," we can learn more and become better risk managers.

Quando confrontado com riscos ambíguos, ferramentas de modelagem de risco para simular diferentes cenários e avaliar potenciais impactos e probabilidades para entender como variáveis diferentes podem afetar os resultados. Isso pode ajudar estabelecer padr?es, insights, quantificar a incerteza e a ambiguidade e pode orientar a tomada de decis?o, mesmo quando as informa??es estiverem incompletas. A análise de cenários pode ser particularmente útil ao considerar uma gama de possibilidades e vários resultados. A eficácia das iniciativas de gest?o de riscos pode ser ampliada através da reuni?o de uma equipa ampla com uma gama de conhecimentos especializados, que pode oferecer novos pontos de vista.

Use risk assessment tools and methodologies to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of different risks. Techniques like risk matrices, Monte Carlo simulations, or decision trees can be helpful. Engage with stakeholders, subject matter experts, and other relevant parties to gain different perspectives and insights. Collaboration can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of the risks. Adopt an adaptive approach to decision-making, acknowledging that decisions may need to evolve as new information becomes available. Flexibility is key in dealing with uncertainty. Understanding acceptable levels of risk can provide a framework for managing uncertainty.

We know that Risk management has three main stages, risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. First of all examining how project outcomes and objectives might change due to the impact of the risk event. Once the risks are identified, they are analysed to identify the qualitative and quantitative impact of the risk on the project so that appropriate steps can be taken to mitigate them. For example, a car manufacturing plant performs a risk analysis to examine potential hazards in the manufacturing process. This analysis pinpoints risks such as equipment failure and accidents, as well as evaluates their likelihood and potential consequences. So the easier and more convenient method is qualitative risk analysis.

Riscos complexos normalmente exigem uma gest?o de risco mais detalhada. Sugiro: - Busque compreender n?o apenas o risco por si, mas as causas raízes para facilitar o processo de mitiga??o. - Busque eliminar dúvidas fazendo entrevistas, testes substantivos, simula??es, recálculos. Se há receios em utilizar um conjunto de dados específicos, amplie a amostra ou avalie a base de dados por completo com ferramentas automatizadas. - Classifique os impactos em reais, possíveis e remotos, principalmente para apoiar no entendimento da consequência, clarificar cenários e apoiar na prioriza??o. - Se há dúvidas sobre uma informa??o recebida, cheque com outras partes interessadas, estude, valide a fonte. - Se for o caso, converse ou contrate experts.

I studied the market, financial data, and regulatory contexts extensively when I was asked to evaluate the dangers of a new investment opportunity. Potential dangers were identified early on and appropriate mitigation techniques were devised with the help of this comprehensive investigation.

Communication is the key. Keeping your commercial team aware of the situation and sharing with them the accountability and ownership pf the risk. They are at the ground level being the face of your company. They can surely help for a better decision making

Your skills are foundational to cope with uncertainty but the key is your emotional intelligence in guiding executives through under-pressure decision-making with incomplete information. Develop your storytelling skills to explain the connection between risk and meeting company goals. Solicit in-the-moment feedback and keep executives apprised of how you are acting on their feedback. Resilience and agility are how leaders respond to setbacks and pivot when the outcome path has unexpected obstacles. It is your skill in providing insights into the unintended consequences of risk outcomes. Then, provide risk mitigation options for responses to pivot around obstacles to navigate uncertainty.

Além de comunicar-se com clareza, é fundamental escutar as pessoas envolvidas nos processos, uma vez que estas s?o detentoras do conhecimento do trabalho como é realmente executado. Porém para que as pessoas falem abertamente sobre erros, problemas e até mesmo oportunidades de melhoria, é imprescindível o desenvolvimento de um ambiente psicologicamente seguro. é isso aí: tudo come?a pela seguran?a psicológica.

Identifica exactamente cuál es la exposición de la organización al riesgo, que tan posible es que ocurra y que posibles impactos preferiblemente organizados por severidad así como los posibles mitigantes o alertas por efectividad-complejidad de implementación. Lo primero es poder darte cuenta, detectar y en función de esto elevar la respuesta o acelerarla

Leverage technology tools such as data analytics, predictive modeling, and risk management software to enhance decision-making capabilities and improve risk visibility.

When our team was up against a seemingly impossible complex risk dilemma, I pushed for creative problem-solving and suggested we try some new approaches. We were able to achieve our goals more quickly and with less effort because we encouraged innovation, which led to the development of new ways of thinking about potential dangers and challenges.

A criatividade, muitas vezes atrelada à um apetite ao risco mais elevado, pode ser um grande diferencial em ambientes ambíguos e complexos. A sensa??o de seguran?a geralmente está relacionada a padr?es e procedimentos repetitivos e amplamente conhecidos. Mas através de criatividade e inova??o, pode-se otimizar os processos e os recursos empregados, como m?o de obra e ferramentas. Criatividade na gest?o de riscos é justamente o ponto de identifica??o de melhorias e adequa??es que acompanhem as mudan?as do ambiente e comportamento das pessoas.

Como diria a tradicional propaganda da marca esportiva "tudo parece impossível até alguém fazer". Procure olhar mais o "para brisa" do que o "retrovisor" e tenha em mente que fora da sua vis?o tem um monte de gente criativa inventando e reinventando coisas, nesse cenario, porque suas possibilidades tem que ficar restritas ao que voce ja conhece?

I agree with the perspective that creativity is a crucial, yet often underestimated, tool in risk management. When traditional approaches fail to address the complexity and uncertainty inherent in risk challenges, innovative thinking can uncover effective solutions. Encouraging brainstorming and drawing inspiration from diverse fields can lead to unique risk mitigation tactics. This not only addresses current challenges but can also drive innovation, turning potential threats into opportunities for growth and resilience.

In practical terms, prioritising flexibility involves several strategies. Firstly, it means regularly reassessing our risk management framework and adjusting it to accommodate emerging threats or changing market conditions. Additionally, it includes fostering a culture of experimentation within our team, where trying new approaches and learning from both successes and failures is encouraged. Moreover, it involves maintaining open lines of communication with stakeholders, so we can quickly adapt our plans based on their shifting priorities. By actively embracing flexibility in these ways, we're better equipped to face uncertainty in complex risk challenges.

Establezca prioridad a elementos que le permitan tener observabilidad de la situación, darse cuenta e ir monitireando las fluctuaciones y cuando éstas requieran que tome acción, tenga recursos disponibles para implementar Dashboard, reportes y contramedidas

Our regulatory environment is always shifting, so I made sure our risk management system could easily adjust to meet the new standards. Even as regulations changed over time, we were able to remain compliant and successfully manage regulatory risks by using this proactive strategy.

No cenário dos negócios "a única certeza que se tem é a de que tudo muda", certa vez ouvi isso de um dos meus maiores lideres e trouxe para minha vida profissional... esteja sempre pronto para mudar, drasticamente, se for preciso.

In prioritising flexibility by key decision makers in order to achieve set corporate goals, the risk of management's overide of controls may arises. This could lead to the high probability of fraud risk to crystalise in the business.Risk Managers should therefore ensure that risk management control activities/governance structures are in place and operating effectively to timely identify, monitor and report any anomalies in decisions made in an aggregated manner to avoid any stakeholder's actions falling in the cracks These governance structures may include the Compliance and Audit departments ,other than the RIsk management department, that are independent and therefore expected to be objective their functions.

In management of risks. Learning continuously gives you the better understanding of the process. Data and its trends from the past will give the predicted future outcomes if played efficiently with proper tools. The A B and C is learn, improvise, implement.

Learning is underappreciated these days. We are too focused on perfection due to technology. Thomas Edison said: “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” We need to embrace this mindset when dealing with an ambiguous situation. It is not a failure if we miss the mark. Instead, it is a learning point on how not to do something or which way to go with the work. Learn, document, and move on. That is the only way you will personally learn, how your organization will learn, and how you will empower your team to work through ambiguous situations in the future.

In order to figure out what went wrong and what we could have done differently after a big risk event that caught us unawares, I performed a comprehensive post-mortem analysis. We strengthened our ability to bounce back from setbacks and prepare for future challenges of a similar kind by regularly reviewing our lessons learned and integrating comments into our risk management procedures.

La incertidumbre y la ambigüedad requieren un enfoque dinámico y adaptable. Al comprometerse con el aprendizaje continuo, los gestores de riesgos pueden mejorar su capacidad para enfrentar desafíos complejos, adaptarse a nuevas situaciones y mejorar constantemente sus habilidades y conocimientos para abordar el riesgo de manera efectiva.

It is great to use technology to assist in the management of risks but it is critical to understand what the data is telling you. In other words, you must be up to date on the emerging trends and evolving risks within your business sector to better understand what your data is informing you of.

1. Try different calculated & considered moves with known or expected outputs 2. Monitor results. 3. Reiterate. 4. Learning from similar events in the past. There is no right or wrong answer here. It needs experience, judgement & risk taking ability.

Encourage a culture of learning and continuous improvement within the organization. Reflect on past experiences to extract lessons that can inform future risk management practices.

Les 6 premiers points évoqués sont très justes, néanmoins la priorité absolue est la prise en compte du timing. Cette 1ère analyse réalisée permettra de déterminer en fonction des moyens (humains, financiers, matériels) et de la stratégie/volonté des protagonistes, un plan d’action qui permettra d’optimiser la gestion de la situation.

Keeping up with industry news, working with professionals, and making use of technology to develop cutting-edge risk management tools are all vital. The efficacy of risk management initiatives can be amplified by assembling a broad team with a range of expertise, which can offer fresh viewpoints.