What are the best ways to improve your ability to draw conclusions from evidence?

A lot of us assume that conclusions need to be definitive and fixed. However, conclusions can also be ambiguous and leave room for further discussion and build scope. There is no single, right way of looking at a data set. Thus, a good conclusion supports one perspective very well, while leaving space for discussion from other perspectives. Additionally, another important aspect to drawing meaningful conclusions from a given data set is 'Time'. While we often focus on checking facts and data accuracy, we forget to give time to carefully observe what is presented to us. We are often in such a hurry to complete work that we overlook data points. Patience along with keeping an open and calm mind here is key.

To improve your ability to draw conclusions from evidence, focus on understanding the context, honing critical thinking skills, diversifying information sources, evaluating source credibility, assessing evidence quality, building statistical literacy, engaging in active reading, identifying patterns, seeking corroboration, considering counterarguments, participating in discussions, remaining open to revision, and reflecting on your thinking process to minimize biases.

-Clearly define your question or hypothesis before collecting evidence. -Gather diverse and relevant evidence, considering its credibility and limitations. -Organize and visualize your evidence for better analysis and identification of patterns. -Critically evaluate each piece of evidence and its implications. -Draw conclusions based on the weight of evidence and acknowledge uncertainties. -Communicate your conclusions clearly, including supporting evidence and reasoning. -Practice actively, challenge your assumptions, and seek feedback to improve. -Develop critical thinking skills and stay open to new information. -Collaborate with others to broaden your perspective and strengthen conclusions.

Often it happens, that I am confronted with a simple one liner "defining" the problem - it ranges from "The money is missing on account X, can you check?" to "The customer doesn't receive our invoices". Personally, I do analyze the whole case from beginning till the end, to get as much information as possible, before I can actually define the problem. Often the cases are easy enough and with right problem definition I can join in a junior who can solve the case thanks to the clearly specified problem, which in my case also almost always includes the root cause. In more difficult cases I contact the necessary people to first understand where the mistake happened, and finding the problem definition on the go. How to solve it is of course next

For a problem to be defined, it needs to answer these important two (W's) "What" and "Why". You can't tackle a problem that you're not aware of. There should be a clear definition of the problem as this will serve as an aid on the do's and don'ts on how to solve such a problem. That's when "How" can come in.

In my experience, leaders often make decisions and address problems based on information they receive from trusted sources without thoroughly verifying the facts. It is crucial to gather accurate and firsthand information—real facts, not just opinions or hearsay. Approach the source directly to collect data and facts, avoiding reliance on indirect information from others.

Words of mouth are not enough to gather enough evidence, just like there is a difference between raw data and information. Different methods can be used to gather evidence just as we have the primary and secondary data such as the use of questionnaires, surveys, interviews, or journals and it should be used for the main reason–tackling and solving the problem. For every piece of evidence, there should be a valid backing.

Inaccurate information rather than bringing solutions creates more problems. Leaders must pay more attention to accuracy, authenticity and reliability of not just the evidences but also their sources. The process and method of evidence collection should also be given strict monitoring to ensure it's not infiltrated.

In my experience, many disregard (or forget to compile) evidence that may point to an opposing solution to what they desire. This can make the conclusion one-sided and vulnerable to risks. Even if you (try) to focus on finding facts that are unbiased and of high quality, you may be asking the wrong question; If you only look for the answers that support your desired results, you will never find the evidence that points out the risks or other different and potential better or simpler solutions. So, in my opinion, the evidence collection step needs to be planned carefully, and whichever question you ask should be asked in various ways to ensure that the question is not what leads to a biased evidence pool to conclude from.

In my opinion, the proper way to gather information after identifying an issue is by conducting thorough research, engaging with concerned parties, listening actively, asking targeted questions, and exploring various perspectives. This comprehensive approach helps in gaining a deeper understanding and collecting relevant data to address the problem effectively.

In my role as Chief Marketing Officer at Willis Dentistry, transforming raw data into meaningful insights is a vital part of my strategy. After gathering comprehensive evidence, the challenge lies in organizing and visualizing it effectively. Whether it’s through intricate graphs, streamlined charts, or interactive dashboards, each format is chosen to suit the data’s complexity and the audience’s needs. My focus is on striking a balance between simplicity and detail, ensuring that the visualizations tell a compelling story. This careful curation of data not only aids in clearer interpretation but also enhances our decision-making process, aligning perfectly with Willis Dentistry’s commitment to data-driven excellence.

What has always been most beneficial to me has been looking for any patterns in my evidence. When there is a pattern, it might be because something keeps repeating itself and causing that outcome to occur. Whether that outcome is negative or positive, you can narrow down the cause of that result and have it repeated or corrected . Its easiest to see patterns when you can have all the data in front of you. Sometimes putting numbers in Excel will show correlations that are not easy to spot. Another technique is to look at all your findings on a board and see how it looks. Using a graph or chart can be used as well. Lastly, ask yourself, is this easy to understand? If you can’t understand what you’re looking at neither will anyone else.

There is a saying "50% is work and 50% is presentation" which I agree with. Many of us focus heavily on building highly sophisticated models to funnel down to a conclusion. But we have to keep in mind that our work will be presented to the decision-makers who, in most cases are not technical savvies or with strong scientific background. Therefore, a picture is definitely worth a thousand words.

Sorting and displaying your evidence is like creating a story with clear pictures. It's not just about having the pieces; it's about arranging them so that anyone can follow the plot. When you organize and visualize, you make your information accessible, making it easier for others to grasp the main points and connections

Leverage the subconscious mind to dramatically improve analysis and get unstuck Gather all the data and dive deep into it Ask yourself the key question you try to solve Then take a break and do something different While you are doing something else, your subconscious mind analyses the data When you revisit the problem later, you will be surprised by your creative insights

Analytical skills encourage deep thinking. Deep thinking results to breaking down of complex situations into components. With deep thinking, you see both positive and negative of any situation before drawing a conclusion.

Question everything including your own assumptions and biases. Consider expertise and reputation of the author and publication. Are there any potential conflicts of interest? Read a variety of materials of the subject you are evaluating.

Set boundaries, after setting Timer and grayscale on Digital wellbeing, My phone consumption reduced by 75%, and got more time on Reading, journaling, exercising, making and maintaining quality connections, furthermore being more creative as well as productive.

Don’t forget to include potential shortcomings or biases that could have effected the conclusion. Although it may feel like you are talking your conclusion down by including the limitations it is based on, it makes the conclusion transparent and easier to work with in the future.

When analyzing evidence, it is important to be as neutral as possible. Remember that facts don’t change but people’s opinions about those facts do. All evidence, good or bad, should be looked in the context of what you are trying to get people to accept/believe, what evidence supports that assertion, what are the alternatives of the assertion, what more evidence would support my conclusions, and what conclusions are most reasonable? Understanding you can’t change peoples’ minds but can change their interruption of the facts will help you have a much better argument. Maybe you’ll never convince anyone that orange juice should always have pulp in it but at least you can say that orange juice with pulp is rich in fiber, versus no pulp.

When presenting your slides put yourself in their shoes; meaning YOU need to answer the following questions on behalf of them. Why should they care? Where should I draw their attention to? What they need to avoid? How should I guide them in implementing the final solution? and so on.

Your biggest downfall comes when you try to force the conclusion to align with your hypothesis. As you draw on your conclusions and synthesize all the data remember the goal isn't being right in your assumption, but being right in how you choose to move forward based on your validated data. Many times our conclusions may give us the opportunity to solve an adjacent or separate problem. To quote Thomas Edison "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 that didn't work." Learn from your mistakes and bad assumptions and they will never be a failure.

Share your conclusions and reasoning with others, and welcome constructive feedback. Engaging in discussions with people who have different perspectives can help refine your thinking.

Most people cherry-pick convenient data to validate preconceived notions rather than shaping fresh insights. True analysis requires brutal objectivity. Don’t surround yourself with conclusions you already agree with. Expose yourself to opposing perspectives and contrary data to stress test your logic. Question your underlying assumptions first. Don't jump to evaluating evidence before scrutinizing your inherent biases that determine how you interpret information. Learn the basics of scientific methodology. Understand principles of falsifiability, intellectual honesty and analytical rigor to filter noise from signal. Confront ambiguity without flinching.

I like to ask my clients or learners to look at the conclusion from different perspectives to challenge the conclusion. Try for example to look at the conclusion from a competitors perspective. Would they agree with your conclusion? If not why? And should you factor this perspective in to your conclusion? Or maybe evaluate, whether someone from a different technical or educational background would have concluded the same - or would have asked additional questions to approve the conclusion? What would they have asked and can you balance your conclusion by including this perspective. And lastly - what are the next steps going forward based on the conclusion. What is the plan now? May sound obvious or simple… but it is often overlooked.

The art of story telling: A good visualised evidence that has been thoroughly analysed will merit any good further discussion if the conclusions are presented in a good story telling manner. The data about health behaviours for example is telling the reader a story about human thought process and actions at play. A good story about the evidence does justice to the research process, allows the reader to grapple and process it well, and makes way for further dialogue.

"Studying the same scenario and gaining inspiration can elevate our understanding, fostering a love for the subject, enabling us to achieve great things. This is how it is, and we have overcome many problems, refining our styles so that we can make improvements. Drawing inspiration and learning from various individuals will enhance your skills and make you a desirable candidate."

Review and reflect on your past conclusions and decisions. Consider what worked well and where you might have made errors. Learn from your experiences. Stay curious and open to learning. The more you know, the better equipped you are to interpret evidence accurately.