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What is the best way to generate multiple hypotheses for a complex problem?

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Analytical skills are essential for solving complex problems, especially when there is no clear or obvious solution. One of the key steps in the problem-solving process is to generate multiple hypotheses, or possible explanations, for the problem. This can help you explore different angles, test your assumptions, and find the best fit for the evidence. But how can you generate multiple hypotheses for a complex problem? Here are some tips and techniques to help you.

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1 Use a structured framework

A structured framework can help you organize your thinking and break down the problem into smaller and more manageable parts. For example, you can use the 5 Whys technique to ask why the problem exists, why it matters, and why it has not been solved yet. You can also use the MECE principle (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive) to ensure that your hypotheses cover all the possible scenarios and do not overlap or contradict each other. A structured framework can help you avoid jumping to conclusions or relying on intuition.

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Lance Rubin

Leading expert on data-driven, decision making solutions. I help enable relevant, informed and purposeful business decisions with modelling and analytics insights ??
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One framework to consider in the Cynefin decision making model. It has five decision-making contexts or "domains" that offer a starting point to solve problems. These are clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, and a centre of confusion (5Cs). You cannot hypothesize if you don’t have a context from which to start or you are simply just shooting blindly and very quickly you get nowhere. By first establishing the context and then perhaps moving that context you are able develop more accurate hypothesis and test these in reality to ultimately solve the real problem that is often unclear at the start. Cynefin was used by its IBM developers in many different business domains and contexts.

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2 Brainstorm with others

Another way to generate multiple hypotheses is to brainstorm with others who have different perspectives, backgrounds, and expertise. This can help you expand your pool of ideas, challenge your assumptions, and discover new insights. You can use various brainstorming methods, such as mind mapping, affinity diagramming, or SCAMPER (Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to another use, Eliminate, Reverse), to stimulate your creativity and generate diverse hypotheses. You can also use feedback and criticism to refine and validate your hypotheses.

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Lance Rubin

Leading expert on data-driven, decision making solutions. I help enable relevant, informed and purposeful business decisions with modelling and analytics insights ??
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I find the Simon Sinek Golden circle incredibly helpful in running a brain storming session (What, How and Why?) The reason being is most people think or see from the outside perspective first ie the What! It’s the most tangible of the 3 and therefore easy to articulate and describe in detail. But as you move closer to the centre things start to get fuzzy and in many cases unknown, which then leads to doing more investigations. Some, not all, people would know How? the what was created ie the process needing to be followed and this process is where problems may arise. However, we use emotion to make decisions based on Why?. The core purpose is often the most unknown element. So start with Why? and you will have greater success.

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3 Use data and evidence

Data and evidence are crucial for generating and testing hypotheses. You can use data and evidence to support or reject your hypotheses, as well as to identify gaps and uncertainties. You can use various sources of data and evidence, such as surveys, interviews, experiments, observations, or documents, to gather relevant and reliable information. You can also use data analysis tools, such as charts, graphs, tables, or statistics, to visualize and interpret the data and evidence.

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Lance Rubin

Leading expert on data-driven, decision making solutions. I help enable relevant, informed and purposeful business decisions with modelling and analytics insights ??
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As per above in the golden circle, use data, analytics and dashboards to find the Why? Use data to navigate away from the centre of confusion towards clarity. Don’t let internal opinions, politics and personal agendas cloud the discovery of these elements. They often do but data NEVER lies (unless it’s being manipulated) so make sure you are getting it from the source and no manipulation or filtering has been added to it to highlight the things that are not important or degrade the important facts into vapour. Sadly data is often manipulated in all areas of our lives and we to be careful as it will absolutely impact our decision making. ??

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4 Apply logic and reasoning

Logic and reasoning are important for generating and evaluating hypotheses. You can use logic and reasoning to check the validity, consistency, and plausibility of your hypotheses, as well as to identify potential flaws or errors. You can use various types of logic and reasoning, such as deductive, inductive, abductive, or analogical, to draw conclusions or inferences from your hypotheses. You can also use logic and reasoning to compare and contrast your hypotheses and to rank them according to their likelihood or priority.

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5 Iterate and refine

Finally, generating multiple hypotheses is not a one-time activity, but an iterative and dynamic process. You should be willing to revise, modify, or discard your hypotheses as you learn more about the problem and the evidence. You should also be open to new or alternative hypotheses that may emerge or arise during the problem-solving process. You should aim to generate as many hypotheses as possible, but also to narrow them down to the most relevant and feasible ones.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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What is the best way to generate multiple hypotheses for a complex problem?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Use a structured framework

2 Brainstorm with others

3 Use data and evidence

4 Apply logic and reasoning

5 Iterate and refine

6 Here’s what else to consider

Analytical Skills

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What is the best way to generate multiple hypotheses for a complex problem?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 Use a structured framework

2 Brainstorm with others

3 Use data and evidence

4 Apply logic and reasoning

5 Iterate and refine

6 Here’s what else to consider

Analytical Skills

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