What are the best practices and tools for communicating uncertainty and risk in renewable energy forecasting?

1 Use probabilistic forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting is a method that expresses the uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting by providing a range of possible outcomes and their likelihoods. Probabilistic forecasting can help you assess the confidence and reliability of your forecasts, as well as the potential impacts and trade-offs of different scenarios. Probabilistic forecasting can be done using various techniques, such as ensemble methods, quantile regression, Bayesian inference, or machine learning. Probabilistic forecasting can also be visualized using graphs, maps, or tables that show the probability distribution, confidence intervals, or error bands of the forecasts.

2 Adopt a common language

Communicating uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting requires a common language that is clear, consistent, and understandable by different audiences and stakeholders. A common language can help you avoid confusion, misinterpretation, or ambiguity when conveying the meaning and implications of your forecasts. A common language can also help you establish trust and credibility with your customers, partners, regulators, or investors. A common language can be based on existing standards, guidelines, or frameworks, such as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), or the Global Energy Assessment (GEA).

3 Provide context and relevance

Communicating uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting also requires providing context and relevance that can help your audience understand the purpose, scope, and limitations of your forecasts. Context and relevance can help you explain the sources, assumptions, and methods of your forecasts, as well as the uncertainties, risks, and opportunities that they entail. Context and relevance can also help you relate your forecasts to the goals, needs, and expectations of your audience, as well as to the current and future conditions of the renewable energy sector and the power system. Context and relevance can be provided using narratives, stories, or case studies that illustrate the value and impact of your forecasts.

4 Use interactive and dynamic tools

Communicating uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting can also benefit from using interactive and dynamic tools that can help your audience explore, analyze, and interact with your forecasts. Interactive and dynamic tools can help you present your forecasts in a more engaging, flexible, and responsive way, as well as to solicit feedback, input, or questions from your audience. Interactive and dynamic tools can also help you update, refine, or revise your forecasts as new data, information, or insights become available. Interactive and dynamic tools can include web-based platforms, dashboards, or apps that allow your audience to access, visualize, or manipulate your forecasts.

5 Seek collaboration and dialogue

Communicating uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting is not a one-way process, but a collaborative and dialogical one that involves multiple actors and perspectives. Seeking collaboration and dialogue can help you improve the quality, accuracy, and usability of your forecasts, as well as to address the challenges, uncertainties, and risks that they pose. Seeking collaboration and dialogue can also help you build relationships, networks, and partnerships that can support the development and deployment of renewable energy. Seeking collaboration and dialogue can be done using various channels, formats, or platforms, such as workshops, webinars, forums, or social media.

6 Learn from feedback and evaluation

Communicating uncertainty and risk of renewable energy forecasting is also a learning process that requires feedback and evaluation. Learning from feedback and evaluation can help you assess the effectiveness, impact, and outcomes of your communication efforts, as well as to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement of your forecasts. Learning from feedback and evaluation can also help you adapt, innovate, and evolve your communication strategies, methods, and tools to meet the changing needs and demands of your audience and the renewable energy sector. Learning from feedback and evaluation can be done using various metrics, indicators, or criteria, such as satisfaction, comprehension, engagement, or decision-making.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?