How do you verify startup assumptions before pivoting?

1 What are startup assumptions?

Startup assumptions are the beliefs or hypotheses that you have about your customers, value proposition, market, channels, revenue, costs, and other aspects of your business model. They are the basis of your startup vision and strategy, but they are not facts. They are educated guesses that need to be validated or invalidated through experiments and feedback.

2 Why verify startup assumptions?

Verifying your startup assumptions is crucial for two reasons. First, it helps you reduce uncertainty and risk by finding out what works and what doesn't in the real world. Second, it helps you learn and improve your product and business model by discovering new insights and opportunities. By verifying your assumptions, you can avoid wasting time, money, and resources on building something that nobody wants or needs.

3 How to identify startup assumptions?

The first step to verify your startup assumptions is to identify them. You can use a tool like the Lean Canvas or the Business Model Canvas to map out your key assumptions for each element of your business model. You can also use the Value Proposition Canvas to focus on your customer segments and value propositions. The idea is to make your assumptions explicit and visible, so you can prioritize and test them.

4 How to test startup assumptions?

The next step is to test your assumptions using experiments and feedback. You can use a tool like the Experiment Board or the Validation Board to design and track your experiments. The goal is to find the most effective and efficient way to validate or invalidate your assumptions with evidence from your customers or users. You can use different methods, such as interviews, surveys, landing pages, prototypes, MVPs, or metrics, depending on your stage and hypothesis.

5 How to evaluate startup assumptions?

The final step is to evaluate your assumptions based on the results of your experiments and feedback. You can use a tool like the Learning Card or the Pivot Board to document and analyze your learnings. The aim is to decide whether to persevere, pivot, or stop based on your evidence and criteria. You can use different frameworks, such as the Build-Measure-Learn loop, the Lean Startup Cycle, or the Pirate Metrics, to guide your evaluation and iteration.

6 How to pivot based on startup assumptions?

If you decide to pivot based on your evaluation, you need to change one or more of your assumptions and repeat the process of identifying, testing, and evaluating them. You can use a tool like the Pivot Canvas or the Pivot Pyramid to plan and communicate your pivot. The key is to make sure that your pivot is based on validated learning and customer feedback, not on gut feelings or opinions.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?