How do you validate and verify the assumptions and data used in a fault tree analysis?

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Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a widely used technique for identifying and quantifying the potential causes and consequences of a hazardous event. FTA involves constructing a logical diagram that shows how different faults and failures can lead to the top event, and then calculating the probabilities of each scenario. However, FTA is not a foolproof method, and it relies on several assumptions and data sources that need to be validated and verified. In this article, you will learn how to check the validity and reliability of your FTA inputs and outputs, and how to improve your FTA quality and accuracy.

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Ahmed Maher, MIIRSM, CertIOSH, IDSE, CSM, TSP

HSE Expert ? HSE Manager ? Consultant (PMC&PMO) ? Co-Founder AM Training ? Certified Trainer & Speaker ? CertIOSH ?…
Camilo Garcia Sarmiento

Dise?ador - Abogado - Contador
Kamil Orzechowski

Experienced Team Leader with NEBOSH/IOSH Certification and Proficiency in Health and Safety Compliance | Communication,…

1 Define the scope and objectives

The first step in validating and verifying your FTA is to define the scope and objectives of your analysis. You need to specify the system or process under study, the top event of interest, the boundary conditions, the level of detail, and the intended use of the results. This will help you to identify the relevant data sources, assumptions, and criteria for your FTA, and to avoid unnecessary or misleading information. You should also document your scope and objectives clearly and communicate them to your stakeholders and reviewers.

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Ahmed Maher, MIIRSM, CertIOSH, IDSE, CSM, TSP

HSE Expert ? HSE Manager ? Consultant (PMC&PMO) ? Co-Founder AM Training ? Certified Trainer & Speaker ? CertIOSH ? Certified Safety Manager CSM-NASP ? IDSE Level-6 ? MIIRSM ? TSP ? TOT ? ISO 45001
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Validating and verifying assumptions and data in a fault tree analysis is crucial for ensuring the accuracy and reliability of the analysis. The following points outline key considerations in this process Assumption Identification Data Source Evaluation Expert Input Historical Data Validation Cross-Verification Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Testing Documentation Review Continuous Monitoring Feedback Mechanisms

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Camilo Garcia Sarmiento

Dise?ador - Abogado - Contador
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Una técnica maravillosamente efectiva es preguntarse sucesivamente "porqué" de las cosas (al menos cinco veces), hasta llegar a la causa, motivo o razón real del problema que se pretende abordar. Este cuestionamiento sistemático y sucesivo el clave para desafiar nuestras creencias, cuestionar el status quo y así identificar los paradigmas que impiden la solución alternativa (por ende, creativa) del asunto. También nos impone la disciplina de reconocer que no podemos saberlo todo y que no debemos temer parecer unos ignorantes sobre un tema. Y ante todo, para comprenderlo mejor. Otra variación, puede ser preguntarse "para qué", con los mismos objetivos.

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Lakshmanan A Kannu CMIOSH

HSES Manager at Air Liquide E&C
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My understandings are: - Validating assumptions and data in fault tree analysis begins with a precise definition and scoping of the analysis. - Define system boundaries, identify key events, and explicitly list assumptions. - Assess assumptions through data scrutiny and expert input. Gather relevant data, ensuring accuracy and completeness. - Conduct sensitivity analyses to understand the impact of assumption variations. - Engage in peer reviews and incorporate expert insights. - This iterative process, combined with learning from incidents, enhances the reliability of fault tree analysis, making it a robust tool for risk assessment within defined system parameters.

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Jon Nakapalau, CHSO, CPO

Physical Security Consultant
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Seek input that you know is reliable; it is important to remember that not all information you will be initially given is going to be of equal value.

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2 Collect and evaluate data

The next step is to collect and evaluate the data that you will use for your FTA. This includes the failure modes and effects, the fault events and logic, the failure rates and probabilities, and the human and environmental factors. You should use reliable and relevant data sources, such as historical records, testing results, expert opinions, standards, or models. You should also evaluate the quality, accuracy, completeness, and consistency of your data, and identify any gaps, uncertainties, or biases. You should document your data sources, methods, and limitations, and justify your choices and assumptions.

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3 Construct and review the fault tree

The third step is to construct and review the fault tree diagram that represents your system or process and its potential failure scenarios. You should use a systematic and logical approach, such as top-down or bottom-up, and follow the rules and conventions of FTA. You should also use appropriate software tools or platforms that can help you to create, edit, and analyze your fault tree. You should review your fault tree for errors, omissions, redundancies, or contradictions, and check if it matches your scope and objectives. You should also document your fault tree structure, symbols, and parameters, and explain your logic and rationale.

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4 Perform and validate the analysis

The fourth step is to perform and validate the analysis of your fault tree. This involves calculating the probabilities of the top event and the intermediate events, identifying the critical paths and cut sets, and performing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. You should use suitable mathematical methods and models, such as Boolean algebra, Monte Carlo simulation, or Bayesian networks, and verify your calculations and results. You should also validate your analysis by comparing it with other methods or data sources, such as event tree analysis, failure modes and effects analysis, or operational experience. You should document your analysis methods, results, and validation, and highlight your findings and implications.

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Kamil Orzechowski

Experienced Team Leader with NEBOSH/IOSH Certification and Proficiency in Health and Safety Compliance | Communication, and Management Systems | Committed to Enhancing Safety and overall performance
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Validate your analysis through peer review and check the logic, assumptions, and data used for accuracy. Assess critical faults and propose changes or safeguards to reduce risk. Finally, ensure the FTA meets industry standards and regulatory requirements for a comprehensive, reliable, and actionable analysis.

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5 Report and verify the results

The final step is to report and verify the results of your FTA. This involves presenting your fault tree diagram, data, analysis, and findings in a clear, concise, and consistent manner. You should use tables, graphs, charts, or other visual aids to illustrate your results, and use plain language to explain your conclusions and recommendations. You should also verify your results by soliciting feedback from your stakeholders and reviewers, such as managers, engineers, operators, or regulators. You should address any comments, questions, or concerns, and revise your report if needed. You should document your report format, content, and verification, and ensure that it meets your scope and objectives.

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Jon Nakapalau, CHSO, CPO

Physical Security Consultant
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Internal review (with contributors) is very important before you present your findings; be open to listening to all recommendation that can better define scope/objectives.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Jon Nakapalau, CHSO, CPO

Physical Security Consultant
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Make sure your FTA is 'rooted' in good 'soil' - the data that you use is going to determine how well your tree will stand in adverse conditions.

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How do you validate and verify the assumptions and data used in a fault tree analysis?

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1 Define the scope and objectives

2 Collect and evaluate data

3 Construct and review the fault tree

4 Perform and validate the analysis

5 Report and verify the results

6 Here’s what else to consider

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