How do you spot emerging risks?

1 Scan the horizon

Horizon scanning is a systematic process of gathering and analyzing information about current and future trends, events, and developments that may affect your organization or industry. It can help you anticipate potential opportunities and threats, and prepare for different scenarios. You can use various sources of information, such as reports, publications, media, experts, networks, or databases, to scan the horizon. You can also use frameworks, such as PESTLE or STEEPLE, to categorize the factors that influence your external environment.

2 Engage your stakeholders

Stakeholders are those who have an interest or influence in your organization or project, such as customers, suppliers, employees, regulators, or competitors. Engaging your stakeholders can help you gain valuable insights, perspectives, and feedback on emerging risks. You can use various methods, such as surveys, interviews, focus groups, workshops, or brainstorming sessions, to involve your stakeholders in risk identification. You can also use tools, such as stakeholder maps or matrices, to prioritize and communicate with your stakeholders.

3 Analyze your data

Data is a key source of information and evidence for spotting emerging risks. You can use various types of data, such as quantitative, qualitative, historical, or predictive, to analyze and identify patterns, trends, anomalies, or correlations that may indicate emerging risks. You can also use tools, such as dashboards, charts, graphs, or indicators, to visualize and monitor your data. You can also use techniques, such as data mining, machine learning, or artificial intelligence, to enhance your data analysis capabilities.

4 Review your assumptions

Assumptions are those beliefs or expectations that you have about your organization, project, or environment, and that influence your decisions and actions. Reviewing your assumptions can help you spot emerging risks that may challenge or invalidate them. You can use various techniques, such as assumption-based planning, scenario planning, or sensitivity analysis, to test and revise your assumptions. You can also use tools, such as assumption logs or matrices, to document and track your assumptions.

5 Learn from your experience

Experience is a valuable source of learning and improvement for spotting emerging risks. You can use various methods, such as audits, reviews, evaluations, or lessons learned, to capture and share your experience and best practices. You can also use tools, such as risk registers or databases, to record and update your risk information. You can also use techniques, such as feedback loops, after-action reviews, or root cause analysis, to learn from your successes and failures.

6 Stay alert and curious

The final technique for spotting emerging risks is to stay alert and curious. This means being aware of your surroundings, being open to new ideas and perspectives, and being willing to ask questions and challenge assumptions. You can also use tools, such as newsletters, alerts, or podcasts, to keep yourself informed and updated on emerging risks. You can also use techniques, such as curiosity journals, mind maps, or SWOT analysis, to stimulate and expand your thinking.