How do you plan and forecast power systems?

2 Generation planning

Generation planning is the process of determining the optimal type, size, location, and timing of new generation units, as well as the retirement or refurbishment of existing ones. Generation planning aims to minimize the total cost of the system, while meeting the load demand, reliability criteria, and environmental regulations. Generation planning can be performed at different levels, such as individual plants, regions, or interconnections, and over different time horizons, such as short-term, medium-term, or long-term. Generation planning methods can be based on deterministic, probabilistic, or stochastic models, depending on the uncertainty and risk involved.

3 Transmission planning

Transmission planning is the process of designing and expanding the transmission network to ensure the adequate and secure delivery of electricity from generation sources to load centers. Transmission planning considers the technical, economic, and regulatory aspects of the system, as well as the potential contingencies and disturbances that may affect the system performance. Transmission planning can be conducted at different scales, such as local, regional, or national, and over different time frames, such as operational, tactical, or strategic. Transmission planning methods can be based on power flow, optimal power flow, or contingency analysis, depending on the objectives and constraints.

4 Distribution planning

Distribution planning is the process of optimizing the distribution network to provide reliable and quality service to the end-users. Distribution planning involves the sizing, siting, and interconnection of distribution equipment, such as transformers, feeders, switches, capacitors, and voltage regulators, as well as the integration of distributed energy resources, such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles. Distribution planning takes into account the load growth, load profile, load diversity, voltage regulation, power quality, protection, and automation of the system. Distribution planning methods can be based on load flow, optimal power flow, or reliability analysis, depending on the goals and limitations.

5 Renewable integration

Renewable integration is the process of incorporating renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal, into the power system. Renewable integration poses some challenges and opportunities for power system planning and forecasting, as renewable energy sources are variable, uncertain, and location-dependent. Renewable integration requires the coordination of generation, transmission, and distribution resources, as well as the use of energy storage, demand response, and smart grid technologies, to balance the supply and demand, maintain the system stability, and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable integration methods can be based on scenario analysis, simulation, or optimization, depending on the level of detail and complexity.

6 Software tools

Software tools are essential for power system planning and forecasting, as they enable the power engineers to perform complex calculations, simulations, and analyses, as well as to visualize and communicate the results. Software tools can be classified into general-purpose, specialized, or integrated, depending on the functionality and scope. Some of the general-purpose software tools are MATLAB, Python, and Excel, which can be used for data processing, modeling, and scripting. Some of the specialized software tools are PSS/E, PSCAD, and ETAP, which can be used for load flow, transient stability, and short circuit analysis. Some of the integrated software tools are HOMER, PLEXOS, and ENERGYPLAN, which can be used for generation, transmission, and distribution planning.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?